After years of depressed pricing levels, aviation appraisers do not foresee a recovery in the used aircraft trade for at least two more years.
Avitas Vice President of aircraft valuation Douglas Kelly says his firm has consistently predicted a market recovery for aircraft values in 2014 for the last four years, but has recently adjusted its estimate backward as the overall economy struggled to bounce back from a global recession.
"That pushes that out a little bit," he says, addressing the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders on 12 March.
Instead, pricing of used commercial aircraft will resume trading above their nominal values in 2015, Kelly says. The market will enjoy a two or three-year ride at peak levels before succumbing to the next cyclical global recession expected in 2017 or 2018.
The Avitas forecast measures a "base value" of an aircraft under conditions with its actual value in the current and projected market. Used aircraft have historically offered good returns for investors, but have struggled in recent years to trade at their nominal, or base, level.
Demand in the market remains highest for the most economical, or fuel-efficient, aircraft, Kelly says.