"Business jet industry deliveries will return to sustained growth starting in 2013," says Bombardier, "with the large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth."
In its latest annual forecast, released on 19 June, the Canadian manufacturer predicts deliveries of 24,000 business jets valued at $648 billion by 2031 in every segment in which it competes. The manufacturer produces ultra long-range, long-range, super-large, large, super-midsize, midsize, super-light and light types.
"The market forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries worth $266 billion from 2012 to 2021, and 14,200 deliveries worth $382 billion from 2022 to 2031," says Bombardier.
The manufacturer is scheduled to deliver five new aircraft types over the forecast period, starting next year with the midsize Learjet 85, the superlight Learjet 75 and light cabin Learjet 70.
These will be followed in 2016 and 2017 by the top-of-the-range Global 7000 and 8000 respectively.
While the airframer is "confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry", current market indicators are mixed, it cautions. "Confidence needs to be fully restored for business jet deliveries to increase strongly and enable the industry to realise its full potential," says Bombardier.
Shipments this year are expected to lag order intake, it continues, as manufacturers strive to maintain acceptable backlog levels. Consequently, 2012 business jet deliveries are expected to be on a par with last year's tally, Bombardier predicts.
Over the next 20 years North America is predicted to receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries, at around 9,500 aircraft. Europe will come in second place with 3,920 aircraft, followed by China, which is forecast to receive 2,420 new business jets by 2031.
"Bombardier also expects key growth markets, including Brazil, India, Russia and the CIS, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years," it says.