Bombardier raises 20-year commercial aircraft forecast

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Demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft will result in 13,100 new aircraft deliveries during the 20-year period from 2011 to 2030, Bombardier predicts in its latest forecast.

The figure represents an increase of 300 units compared to last year's forecast, said Bombardier, which has optimized its 110/130-seat CSeries for the 100 to 149-seat category. In this segment, Bombardier sees a requirement for 7,000 new aircraft over the next two decades.

In the 20- to 59-seat segment Bombardier estimates that some 300 new aircraft will be delivered from 2011 to 2030. And the airframer predicts that about 5,800 aircraft in the 60- to 99-seat category will be ordered.

"As air travel demand is linked to economic growth, signs that a global recovery is underway are reflected in strengthened demand for new commercial aircraft in both developed and emerging markets," said Bombardier.

It noted that an area of concern in the industry continues to be the rising cost and volatility of oil prices, which creates uncertainty in the planning activities of many airlines.

"Combined with the political changes taking place in many of the oil producing countries, and recent climatic events such as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the global demand for air travel has slowed in the short term," said the airframer.

"However, in the long term, the price of oil will drive airlines to accelerate the retirement of older, less efficient aircraft, increasing the demand for new-technology, more fuel-efficient aircraft."

The forecasted delivery demand for the next 20 years is valued at approximately $639 billion.