Forecasts detail 10-year outlook for global MRO market

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The global maintenance, repair and overhaul market is expected to grow by 3.2% per annum over the next decade to reach a value of $58 billion by 2019, according to the latest market forecast from consultancy Aerostrategy.

Team SAI gives a slightly more optimistic forecast, predicting annual growth of 4.4% to reach $65.3 billion by 2020. The market in 2009 was worth $42.7 billion.

Speaking at Aviation Week's MRO Europe conference in London today, Aerostrategy principal David Stewart said the MRO market would record low single-digit growth in 2010, mid single-digit growth in 2011 and low double-digit growth in 2012. In 2009, the market declined by between 15% and 20%.

Team SAI president and chief operating officer Dave Marcontell expects the value of the MRO market to reach $50.1 billion by 2015. Global MRO spend fell by 7.5% in 2010, but Marcontell is optimistic that recovery is on the way.

"Can we call this the bottom? Barring a major negative turn in global economic growth, we think so," he says. Most of the growth will be seen in the Asia-Pacific region and in developing countries, whereas North America and Europe will see "slow if not anaemic growth".

Marcontell predicts that the global fleet will grow by 3.3% per annum over the next 10 years to reach 27,303 aircraft by 2020. Aircraft which have been parked for the most part are not expected to return to service. Of the 1,553 aircraft currently parked, Stewart says that only 200 will return to service, representing 1% of global capacity.