The global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market is sized at $57.7 billion in 2014 and will grow to $86.8 billion by 2024, a new forecast from US aviation consultancy Team SAI shows.
The market as a whole will grow at a “healthy” compound average growth rate of 4.2%, according to the forecast. The market will grow faster at a 4.9% rate until 2019, when growth will slow to 3.5% until 2024.
Narrowbody aircraft will make up between 46% and 48% of the maintenance work over this period, with widebodies making up 40% to 43%. Regional jets will make up about 9%.
The airframe MRO is sized at $11.5 billion in 2014, with almost 30% of the money spent on North American fleets. This spend will grow to $17.2 billion by 2024, says Team SAI.
The forecast values the engine maintenance market at $22.1 billion in 2014, with more than 30% of fleets in North America. That number will grow to $33.2 billion by 2024, the study shows.
Component MRO spend will be $12.2 billion in 2014, growing to $18.7 billion in 2024. Line maintenance is valued at $11.9 billion this year and will grow to $17.7 billion within the 10-year period, the forecast shows. The North American market make up about 35% and 27% of the the 2014 spend for component and line maintenance services in 2014, respectively.
The North American MRO market will grow from $17.7 billion to $19 billion over during the forecast period, at a compound annual growth rate of about 0.7%.
Latin American MRO is expected to more than double between 2014 and 2024, growing from $2.6 billion in 2014 to $5.4 billion in 2024.
Western Europe MRO spend will grow from $13.9 billion in 2014 to $17.3 billion in 2024, however the region will lose market share overall, says Team SAI. Eastern Europe will grow 6.2% during the forecast period from $2.4 billion in 2014 to $4.3 billion in 2024.
The Asia-Pacific region will grow at a 5% rate between 2014 and 2024, with China’s market expanding from $4 billion to $10.2 billion.
The Middle Eastern market will double in the forecast period from $4 billion to $8.1 billion, making up nearly 10% of the global MRO market by 2024.