Bombardier continues to expect strong demand from emerging markets, the Canadian airframer declared as it released its latest 20-year forecast on the eve of the Paris air show.
"As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to recover from the industry downturn, signs of forward momentum are beginning to emerge," says Bombardier. Emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Latin America will be increasingly important in the industry, it adds.
Bombardier expects 12,800 deliveries of commercial aircraft in the 20 to 149-seat segment worth $646 billion and 24,000 business-aircraft deliveries worth $650 billion from 2013 to 2032.
Bombardier’s overall projected commercial aircraft deliveries do not differ from last year’s number, but the airframer now expects 50 more deliveries in the 60-99 seat segment while the 20 to 59-seat segment will have 50 fewer deliveries.
"The regional distribution has been realigned with an expectation for below-average GDP growth in the mature markets of North America and Europe, and for more robust growth in emerging markets," says Bombardier.
It forecasts that 250 aircraft will be delivered in the 20 to 59-seat segment, 5,650 in the 60-90 seat segment and 6,900 in the 100 to 149-seat segment.
Strong traffic demand, a growing middle class and the relaxation of scope clauses are among the reasons cited by Bombardier for the strong deliveries. North America will remain the largest market, followed by China and Europe.
In the business-aircraft segment, Bombardier forecasts 9,800 deliveries for the period 2013 to 2022, and 14,200 for 2023 to 2032.
"While business-jet orders and deliveries for 2013 are expected to be comparable to those of 2012, Bombardier forecasts that they will begin to improve in 2014 and that the industry will surpass its prior delivery peak year of 2008 by as early as 2016," says Bombardier.
North America will receive the greatest number of new business aircraft over the 20-year period, followed by Europe and China.