Airlines will need to dig deeper to pay for aircraft from 2013 when the added costs of increased banking regulation and more expensive export credit agency (ECA) guarantees take effect.
"Pricing will increase for deliveries from 2013 onwards due to the change in price of ECA premiums and increased bank margins as a result of the effects of additional capital requirements on 28 globally systemically important financial institutions, if introduced by the G20 in November this year, and Basel III," says BOC Aviation's chief executive officer, Robert Martin.
He says the market in now in a "transition period" between the 2007 Aircraft Sector Understanding (ASU) and the new regulation impacting export credit support.
"ECA financing is still attractive for airlines and lessors who have access to grandfathered facilities," he says, explaining Boeing 747-8F and 787 aircraft are grandfathered under the 2007 regulation.
Martin anticipates ECAs "will face significant demand for more facilities during the next two years" because of European banking problems.
This will also encourage a "shift in appetite in the banking market" to Asia from Europe and to enhanced equipment trust certificates (EETC) financings.
"The bond markets, especially in Asia and US, will see more activity as there are a lot of high net worth clients and money market funds looking to park their funds in instruments that offer higher yield than bank deposits," he says.
However, if any capital problems do occur in aviation financing, Martin believes operating lessors and manufacturers will be available to "bridge" any gaps.