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Aviation History
1911
1911 - 0034.PDF
A.A. and M.U. (Aviation Section). THE presentation of the Motor Union Trophy to Mr. Claude Grahame-White, in commemoration of his gallant attempt to fly from London to Manchester in the spring of 1910, will be made at a luncheon to be held in his honour at the Waldorf Hotel, on Friday, January 20th. The following is the programme of papers to be read before the members of the Aviation Section of the Automobile Association and Motor Union for the season January-April, 1911 :— Tuesday, February 7th.—" The Work of the School Aero Club," by R. P. Grimmer. Tuesday, February 14th.—" Plan Shape of Flying Machines. Its Relation to Control and Longitudinal Stability," by A. P. Thurston, B.Sc. Wednesday, March 8th.—"Some Lessons of 1910," by Major J. N. C. Kennedy. Tuesday, March 21st.—"The Manufacture, Properties and Use of Elastic Motors," by F. B. Beringer. Tuesday, April nth.—The British Pioneers of Aviation," by A.C. Horth. The papers will, in some instances, be illustrated by lantern. The place of meeting is the Members' Room, Caxton House, and the hour of assembly 8 p.m. Manchester Aero Club (22, BOOTH STREET). THE club has arranged for a lecture to be given by Mr. A. E. Berriman, on Friday, January 20th,at 7.30 p.m., at the Manchester School of Technology, subject " The Conquest of the Air, and Some of its Problems." Each member is entitled to two tickets, one for himself and one for a friend. THIS MONTH'S WEATHER. WHAT FLYING MEN MAY EXPECT IN JANUARY By T. F. MANNING. VERY few aviators could answer the question—which are the most stormy, foggy, snowy, cloudy, or rainy months of the year? Yet it is quite obvious that a man's success or failure, perhaps his life or death, may depend on a knowledge of these facts when making his flying plans. As a rule, when making plans some weeks or months ahead, he has very little to guide him except his general knowledge concerning the character of the seasons, which is usually very vague. Of course when the day is at hand he has the forecast of the Meteorological Office. But this comes too late to prevent disappointment, if the weather is unfavourable, and too often we see men taking fearful risks rather than, at the last moment, break through the arrangements they have made. A better knowledge of the weather to be expected at any given time would obviate many disappointments and considerably lessen the dangers of aviation, and this knowledge is available in the records of weather in the past. Of course it is not possible from these records to predict what weather we will have on any par ticular day or in any particular week. But the recurrence of weather of certain types shows some approach to regularity. There are certain weeks when we have more gales or snowfalls, more rain,or thunder, or sunshine, than in other weeks; and we can say that in such a week the chances of a gale or a fog are ten in a hundred, while in another given week they are only two in a hundred. This knowledge of the degree of probability of any weather factor should prove of some help to the aviator making plans for the future. He can see what month in the year, or what period in any month, is likely to offer the most favourable conditions for flying. And, by combining the information given below with the description published daily by the Meteorological Office of the type of weather prevailing (cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, &c), he can foretell, with tolerable accuracy, the conditions to be expected for several days or a week to come. The following is based on the records for nearly a hundred years past with regard to some of the phenomena, and for over a hundred years with regard to others. But the figures in the table give the percentage of chances, that is to say they indicate the number of times a gale, f.»g, &c, occurred on each day during one hundred years. To make this matter quite clear—we have records of some phenomena for over a hundred years, and of others for somewhat less than that period. I have taken the even century and given to it its due proportion of weather events, calculated from these records. We may not have the average weather, thus indicated, in this present year, day answering to-day. But a glance at the table will show that it gives valuable assistance to an aviator planning a flying event; it shows him that there have been, in January, well marked periods of more frequent and less frequent storms, snowfalls, fogs, &c, and the probabilities are that future Januaries will correspond more or less closely to those of the past. Thus, if we take the six days, January 4th to 9th, we have the chances of a gale as 4, 8, 6, 4^, 5 and 5 in a hundred, respectively, a total of 34J chances in the six days. Then if we compare with this period the six days, January 22nd-27th, the figures are 10, 8, n, ictj, 8, and ioj, a total of 59. The probabilities of a gale in this latter period are nearly double of those in the former ; the odds against a gale in the first period are 100 to 34J, and in the second period 100 to 59. We have records for several parts of the country for long series of years, but the table here given applies only to the south and south-east of England, where probably most of the impoitant flying events will be carried off. It is based on Greenwich records mainly. -GALES, SNOW, FOG. Table of Weather Phenomena in January. (The figures show how many times in a hundred years each event occurs. The odds against a gale, fog, &c, on any particular day would be as 100 to the figure in the table.) *=3 J a I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 '5 lb 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 20 27 28 29 30 3i 5 74 10J 7 7i 6 4l 5 5 10 6 6 10 10A 7 7i 6 9 9 IO J; 6 10 9 11 ioi 8 io£ 7 10 11 11 13 17 11 16 11 10 17 9 11 13 9 16 13 16 7 14 10 18 14 14 14 14 14 13 '5 9 !3 13 II 8 6 2j 2* 2* 3i 1 6 2i 2\ I 5 5 4l 2| I — 32 5 32 I 3i 2:t 3h 2i 6 2i — 32 5 2', 16 17 17 12 19 17 10 15 '3 11 17 17 11 9 15 12 9 12 12 13 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 14 9 11 13 — — 2 3 i> — — 1 1 i| — 2 — 1 li 1 1 1 3 2 1 ih 1 2 1 2 — 4 1 i Ij 2S3i 398 84 396 3»i 8i It will be seen that January is much more stormy at the end than at the beginning. During the first ten days there are 68 gales in a century ; during the sec >nd ten days there are 81 ; and during the third ten days there are 93 gales. Fogs of all kinds are pretly evenly distributed, but the last few davs show a considerable decrease, which is continued into February. Snowfalls progressively diminish in frequency, the numbers for the first ten days being 149, for the second ten days 127 and for the third ten days 107. Hail, being a spring phenomenon, and thunder prevailing chiefly in summer and autumn, the figures for January are quite negligible. As compared with other months of the year January is the most stormy, although December and March run it very close. It is the coldest month of the year. It has more snowfalls than any other month. In the matter of fogs it is better, but not much better, than November and December, which are the worst months. The first week of January is the most snowy and the last the most stormy week of the whole year. In London more or less rain falls on fifteen days during tkU month, and there are only 42 hours of sunshine, an average of 1 hour 21 minutes per day. Taking all weather phenomena into account January is probably the worst flying month of the twelve. ' 34
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