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Aviation History
1919
1919 - 0122.PDF
indeed upon the result of the War itself, it cannot be expected that any authoritative information can be furnished as to the probable direct Govern ment demand for aircraft on a peace basis. 3. Assuming, however, that there will be some considerable diminution of direct Government orders at the end of the War, the Committee have thought it advisable to consider first of all the position of the aircraft industry gener ally at that time, and more particularly during the interval which may be expected to occur between the probable diminution of naval and military orders for the Air Forces at the conclusion of peace (whatever the extent of such diminution may be) and the renewal of such orders coupled with some possible orders for civil aerial transport purposes ; and, secondly, the con structive steps which should be taken to bridge that interval. 4. In presenting their views and recommendations, the Special Committee desire to emphasise what they regard throughout as an incontestable assump tion, namely, that aerial power will be as necessary for the protection of Great Britain and the existence of the Empire in the future as naval power has been in the past. The Committee are accordingly of opinion that it will be necessary, after the conclusion of the War, to take such measures as will maintain the power of production in this country, with its attendant power of design and progressive experiment. Without continuity it would be im possible to have the organisation immediately available when required. Furthermore, if such a policy for National Aerial Defence is adopted as will have the effect of maintaining the aircraft industry on a reasonably sound basis, the development of aviation for civil aerial transport should be the more rapid, inasmuch as those engaged in the industry will possess this power of design and production, backed by the necessary financial resources avail able for extension to the development of aviation in its civil and commercial aspects. 5. If the expectation is justified that at the end of the War there will be a considerable falling off in direct Government orders—and it has to be borne i n mind that even if the same aerial force that exists at the end of the War is to be maintained on a peace basis, the falling off will be great, owing to the much longer expectation of life of aircraft under peace as compared with war conditions—the conclusion of peace will bring with it a reduction not only in the number of firms engaged in the industry, but also, by the cessation of overtime and night shifts, in the output of tie remaining firms. But, when such establishments as are at present engaged as a temporary war measure in aircraft building have reverted to their normal pre-War business, the pro ductive capacitv of the remaining establishments may still be more than is necessary to maintain the National Aerial Service. 6. With regard to the probable development of aerial transport services the Special Committee would refer to the facilities which this form of trans port will provide in letter mail services and in journeys over long distances, or where other means of transport are undeveloped or do not furnish direct connections. It is thought that fast aerial mail services should soon be able to compete with expensive long-distance cable services, as, for instance, from London to South Africa. Yet their development will be gradual, and the number of aircraft they will employ, in the earlier years at any rate, will be small, because even on a sanguine view of the amount of letters which will be sent by air mail at a high rate of postage, the weight of them will not be great, while passengers will be few. It is hardly to be supposed that news- p t ers and printed matter will be sent in large quantities by air mail for some time to come. It has to be borne in mind, too, that air routes will be mainly international, and that foreign countries will expect that a share in the business will be given to their own aircraft. Viewed, therefore, as a com mercial proposition, the Committee do not think that civil aerial transport is likely, at least for some years to come, to develop to such an extent as to involve any appreciable volume of orders being placed with the productive side of the industry in this country. As far as the immediate post- period is concerned, it should be remembered that machines for civil and commercial purposes will unquestionably need to be specially developed, and any considerable volume of orders will have to await the completion of this process of development. The Committee, therefore, come to the con clusion that, while aerial transport services will ultimately offer hopeful prospects from the financial point of view, the construction of aircraft for that purpose, even if the services 'attain to the fullest dimensions that can reasonably be anticipated, could for some time to come only reach com paratively negligible proportions, and will be such as to be by itself wholly inadequate for the maintenance of the aircraft industry even on a greatly reduced basis. 7. The conclusions of the Committee as to the first question mentioned in para. 3 above may be summarised as follows :— (a) The Committee are unable to foresee any such early development of civil aerial transport as could by itself keep the aircraft manufacturing in dustry alive. (6) It is essential that the services of the aircraft manu facturing industry continue to be employed for the design and development of naval and military aircraft, and for the carrying out of the national con structional requirements of the future. If that is done, then no special steps would seem to be required in connection with civil aerial transport to establish the industry on a permanent peace basis, (c) Failing the employ ment of the aircraft manufacturing industry for the purposes and to the full extent above indicated, then the industry could only be kept alive for civil aerial transport purposes by active Government assistance, not neces sarily in the form of subsidies on manufacture, continued over several years to come. The foregoing conclusions point to the necessity of some constructive steps being taken to ensure the maintenance of the aircraft industry. S. In considering the position of the aircraft industry on the termination of the war the Committee have had before them an interesting memorandum by Mr. A. E. Turner, which is presented as an Appendix to the present Report. g. Before offering suggestions as to the constructive steps to be taken, the Committee desire to point out that it is of the first importance that the task of considering and of dealing with constructive proposals in regard to all aeronautical matters after the war should be definitely assigned without delay to some one Government Department which would, of course, only act after consultation with such other Government Departments as might be concerned. It appears to the Committee that such matters should be dealt with by a single Central Government Authority, but that, to be effec tive for this purpose the Authority should work in conjunction with a body representing the industry. 10. The Committee are of opinion that the solution of the problem of the constructive steps to be taken, and with it the solution of the problem raised in the second heading of the terms of reference to the Main Com mittee as to the disposal of the surplus of machines likely to be in the hands of the Naval and Military authorities after the War ; should be sought along the lines of so using this surplus as to stimulate immediately a demand for aeroplanes in some new direction. The Committee therefore recommend * (a) That an offer should be made by the Home Government to the larger self-governing Dominions and to Egypt and India to supply a definite num ber of machines, free of cost, as soon as they become available, conditionally on these countries, in the meantime, submitting approved schemes for the formation of units of an Imperial Air Force. (6) That the Government should announce that in the event of the formation of companies for aerial transport services, or other commercial purposes, thev would be prepared to afford facilities for the purchase of machines at a reduced price (say one-quarter or less fraction of the original cost) to substantial companies. This will operate to facilitate the employments of pilots who will be re turning to civil life on demobilisation. These two proposals taken jointly would relieve the Government of heavy expenses in providing storage accommodation for machines which are too valuable for destruction, and should also relieve the stagnation in the design of military types which would inevitably occur if the necessity of using up large stocks of surplus aeroplanes prevented the authorities from placing any but the smallest possible orders for machines of new design. The design of aeroplanes expressly for civil purposes would also receive a stimulus, as the companies would early begin to find points in which the machines thus taken over were susceptible of improvement from the point of view of the new use to which they were being put. n. On the broad question which was raised at the first meeting of the Main Committee of State ownership against private enterprise, the Special Committee hold the view that the industry of aircraft production and transport should be so dealt with as to interfere as little as possible with individual enterprise. 12. The foregoing paragraphs cover, so far as seems possible in the light of such information as is available, the subject matter of headings (1), (2), U), and (5) of the terms of reference to the Committee. Data are wholly lacking by which to estimate the cost of production of aircraft or the running costs of civil aerial services after the war, and the Committee fear that detailed discussion of the subject matter of headings (3) and (6) of their terms of reference would be premature at the present stage, and could serve no good purpose. H. White Smith (Chairman) ; Alan E. L. Chorlton ; L. N. Guillemard ; G. Holt Thomas ; E. P. Morris (with certain reservations) ; G. E. P. Murray ; •Mervyn O'Gorman, Lieut.-Col. ; *\V. P. Sebreiner; J. D. Siddeley ; T. Sopwith : *A. E. Turner; E. R. Wayland, Lieut.-Col. D. 0. MALCOLU (Secretary). January 11th, 1918. Those members whose names are marked with an asterisk append the following reservations :— I do not consider that the aerial mail service will actually compete with (see line 4 of para, 6 of the report), but that it will be complementary to, and will probably activate the use of long distance communication by electric cable. MERVYN O'GORMAN, Lieut.-Col. 1. While I accept the conclusion that present conditions do not justify the advice that the State here shotdd immediately itself undertake the in dustry of aircraft production, and that, therefore, constructive steps are necessary to ensure the maintenance of that industry by the enterprise of the firms and companies which hold the field, 1 consider that before long the wisdom of establishing State control of and active participation in that industry will be recognised, and practical steps will be taken in that direc tion for the benefit of the nation. 2. I do not discern any insuperable obstacles in the way of an early prac tical commencement of "civil aerial transport within the United Kingdom as a State undertaking, or under direct State control, and I regret that it has not been found possible to include in this report practical suggestions for experiments in that direction at the earliest possible moment W. P. SCHREINER. I desire to add, by way of reservation, that in my opinion para. 6 of the report gives an unduly gloomy impression of the prospects of etvtl aerial transport in the near future, especially in regard to passenger carrying- A. E. TURNER APPENDIX. Memorandum by Mr. A. E. Turner on the position of the Aernnmmtica Industry on the Termination of hostilities. (This is not printed.) APPENDIX V. Supplementary Report of Special Committee No. 3. 1. The Special Committee have been asked to consider certain points raised by Capt. Groves in a Notice of Motion handed in to the Main Com mittee. The Special Committee had not previously dealt with these points because by their terms of reference they went called upon rather to advise as to the probable position of the aircraft manufacturing industry in this country at the end of the War, than to consider whether it was necessary in the general interest of the State to take special steps to foster the civil use of aircraft. 2. They have now considered the further points referred to thorn, and desir« to emphasise that it is of great importance, in the national interest, that the use of aircraft for civil purposes should by some means or other be fostered to the utmost extent, and with the rapidity possible, immediately after the War. One reason is that the civil use of aircraft will ultimately play an important part in the commerce and transport of the future, and it is undesirable that the British Empire should fail, through allowing other countries to be first in the field, to secure its due share of such commerce and transport. A second and very vital reason is that in any future war the air will play a more important part than ever, and unless the State is to maintain on a peace establishment a naval and military air force as large as it will require in any future war, there must be a reservoir of aerial power capable of meeting a sudden demand for the expansion of the naval and military air force, hast as the shipbuilding industry and the mercantile marine are capable of meeting such a de and on the part of the Admiralty. 3. It has been shown in the previous Report of tlie Special Comir itree that if the aircraft manufacturing industry is to be almost wholly dependent on direct State orders for naval and military aircraft, and such orders fall otl greatly at the end of the war, as it is only prudent to assume that thev will do, the aircraft manufacturing industry will dwindle with great rapidity. Therefore, in order to keep the manufacturing industry in a state of healthy activity, and to secure that there shall be as large as possible a number of aircraft and of skilled and practised flyers in existence available to be drawn upon by the State, it is vitally important that a market sjtnaM be created for aircraft other than that provided by the State's direct naval and military orders. ^v 4. It is not enough merely to maintain the aircraft manufacturing, industry in a static condition : it is necessary-, particularly in an industry which fc- still at so early a stage of its growth, that there should be every opportunity and inducement for the inventor and for progressive development and im provement in design. This consideration only serves to emphasise the importance of immediate steps being taken to loster the civil commercial aae of aircraft. Progress and improvement are likely to be best stirr ulatrd by the hope of commercial gain, as has been shown in the history of other industries, notably that of shipbuilding. 5. The Special Committee adhere to the view expressed in their earlier report that it is impossible to foresee any such early development of dvil aerial transport as could by itself keep the aircraft manufacturing industry alive ; but it follows from what has been said above that it must be developed at any rate to such an extent as will ensure that the resulting orders will suffice, along with such direct naval and military orders as continue to be given after the War, to secure the end in view. * No IKir.H. ,122
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