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Aviation History
1922
1922 - 0100.PDF
FEBRUARY 16, 1922 The first item that has to be recognised (in fact it does not wait to be recognised) is the impossibility of at present making anything but a financial loss from the operation of commercial aircraft, although on paper it can be shown with comparative ease that the conveyance of passengers and goods by air can be attended with the happiest financial results, even without the assistance of a subsidy. In practice, however, it works out very differently, and operating companies are usually to be found, pruning-knife in hand, attacking every form of expenditure in order, not that the profit may be increased, but that the losses may be reduced. What then must be accomplished in order that a heavy loss can be converted into a profit, and moreover with such . a reasonable certainty as will from time to time ensure the Supply of such new capital as will allow the industry to be properly maintained and expanded ? The whole future of the aircraft industry, the aerial transport companies, our national defer ce, and even the future of the Empire may depend upon our ability to answer this question correctly, and it may be as well at once to examine the various means proposed as an amelioration of the present position. .Since the first days of air transport, it has been apparent that the very heavy interest and depreciation charges in respect to the fleet can only be met by keeping the machines constantly in the air with paying .loads. This year it has been reported that we are to see an aeroplane doing three or four London-Paris trips in a single day. It is not seen, however, that this will solve the problem-:- If, for example, two machines are worked on a schedule that keeps them going all day, it will only be possible to maintain the necessary regularity and all the operational advantages that are allied to regularity by maintaining at least one spare machine on each side. A 100 per cent, reserve fleet would theoretically always be idle, and it would seem, therefore, to be just as economical to work the four machines on half time. And, in any case, in several months of the year, weather and lack of light prevent more than one journey per machine per day, or two at the most. Designers and constructors of aircraft and aircraft engines approach the subject from another standpoint, and are bending their energies to effect improvements which have for their object an increase of the paying load in relation to the fuel consumed, and the cost of maintenance and operation. Such work is of the utmost importance, and progress will be vitally affected by the degree of success that is achieved in these directions. It is clearly impossible, however, to wipe out all the loss by improvements in thermal and aero dynamic efficiencies. Engines already closely approach the limit of thermal efficiency, and he would be a bold designer who would gurantee actually to produce aeroplanes even 15 per cent, more efficient than the best of those existing today. I see no immediate hope, therefore, that the work of the aircraft designer will enable the loss to be turned into a profit. r If civil aviation, therefore, is to have any future, what is required ? In the author's opinion there is only one answer—Passengers and yet more passengers. Given even a moderate percentage of the travelling public, civil aviation, it is considered, could be made to pay its own way within the next five or six years. It is true that last year showed a welcome increase, and that this year may see a still further advance in the total number of passengers carried, but as the excess will be shared by some seven or eight companies, it is extremely doubtful if the nett increase per company will be anything material. The regular and safe transport of passengers by air demands a highly skilled staff, but in addition to the overhaul and maintenance staff, which will have to be increased as the number of passengers increases, although not in the same pro portion, there are those engaged in the management and opera tion of the commercial side of the business and also those re sponsible for superintending the actual working of the fleet, What other class of transport company could afford to keep a staff of such proportions for less than 50 passengers per week, taken as an average over a whole year ? In some undertakings, the total number of persons employed in the working of the fleet is greater than the weekly average of passengers carried. No other form of transport could live for long under such conditions, however efficient their vehicles or methods. It is very difficult at this early stage to form any exact opinion as to the minimum number of passengers that should be carried per week. Incidentally, the aerial week will probably have to consist of seven days as in every other transport undertaking. To cease work on Sundays, in addition to inconveniencing the public and delaying the expansion of the business, causes a loss of 14J per cent, per year on the working time, thus further raising the cost per flying hour. On the basis of a week of seven days, the author has formed the opinion that the minimum number of passengers necessary weekly for the profitable operation of any one company is not less than about five hundred, and these must be carried in the most efficient machines operated by an exceedingly skilled and highly organised personnel. By what means then are 'we to attract the far greater number of passengers required ? It cannot be said, at present, that there is any real concerted effort being made by the companies to attract the public. Much of the advertising and propaganda is aimed at securing as large a share as possible of the numbers already travelling, and but little, if any, to encourage the general use of the airway. Before we can answer the question as to how the increase is to be obtained, it will be necessary to try and form some idea as to the main reasons that keep the public back. It is considered that the chief reason lies almost wholly in the fact that insufficient attention has been concentrated upon the problem of making flying really safe, and secondly, we have not made it look and feel as safe as it is. We are rather apt to think that the public know little of the factors determining safety in flight, and that to them all aeroplanes are very much alike. Experience has shown this idea to be completely erroneous. The author has heard many conversations that show the contrary to be the case, and on more than one occasion has witnessed passengers refusing to travel on a machine which they did not consider either safe or sufficiently comfortable. Factors Affecting Safety Pilots.—The experience of last year has revealed several points that require serious attention, even although the number of fatalities and injuries was low, and in the case of the British Cross-Channel Services was actually nil. As, however, all companies have to suffer if anything impairs the confidence of the public, it is necessary to survey the European services generally. Probably the most serious cause of accidents has been lack of skill and judgment on the part of the pilots, although it is necessary at once to except British pilots from this generalisation. Our own pilots have, on the contrary, proved themselves over and over again to be exceptionally skilled and resourceful pilots and navigators, and it is impossible to praise their work too highly. On the Continent and in America, however, there is considerable room for improvement, not only in the actual flying methods, but in the qualifications deemed necessary by the operating companies for pilots that are to be entrusted with passengers to' be taken on long and difficult routes. It is considered by many that the question of the training of suitable pilots is one calling for the most serious attention , by all those concerned with the control and operation of commercial aerial transport. Aeroplanes.—It is, of course, highly desirable to design aeroplanes capable of carrying the maximum" possible useful load for a given horse-power, which will be capable of being operated at a high speed with a minimum consumption of petrol and oil. It is impossible, however, to attain these ideals to their fullest extent and at the same time preserve the same factor of general safety, and if passengers, because it is not sufficiently safe, will not come forward in sufficient numbers to make the business pay, then the possession of the most money-saving aeroplane in the world does not place the owner in a very much better position. Is it too much to ask that all aeroplanes used on, say, the London-Paris service, should be able to land and pull up with absolute safety almost anywhere in the country en route ? If this cannot be done, then are we not bound to conclude that aerial transport is inherently much more dangerous than transport by land and sea ? How much is it that would have to be sacrificed in order to rejider machines capable of taking off quickly and landing safely and ^providing them with stronger under-carriages, with much greater shock- absorbing capacity, and capable of being brought to rest within 60 yards after touching the ground ? It would have an immensely reassuring effect on the public mind if they knew that before a commercial aeroplane could receive a certificate of airworthiness, it had to make, say, ten forced landings on a given route immediately upon receiving wireless instructions from the ground, and at moments selected entirely by the wireless operator. Aerodromes.—Sufficient attention has not yet been given in any country to the perfecting of the aerodromes in use. Even at Croydon and Le Bourget there are obvious improve ments called for. but for some reason or another time drags on without the defects being remedied. There are few aerodromes in which it is possible to take-off with equal 100
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