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Aviation History
1940
1940 - 1189.PDF
APRIL 25, 1940 371 46 c24 £22 £20 £ 18 AIR STRENGTHS An American Engineer Predicts Allied Victory WE publish, by cour-tesy of Aviation,a short summary of an article on that vital subject, the comparative air strengths of the Allies and Germany. The author, Mr. T. P. Wright, is vice- president of engineering of the Curtiss-Wright Cor- poration in U.S.A., and inspected aircraft factories in England, France and Germany during visits in 1934, 1936, 1937 and 1938. Though Mr. Wright's opinions carry some weight, to obtain the true picture of this difficult sub- ject is almost an impossi- bility, and the statements made in the article are not necessarily the opinions of Flight. It is also of interest that the official view in this country of the German rate of pro- duction is that 2,000 aeroplanes per month is an ex- aggeration.—Ed. One object of this article is to arrive at probable presentair strengths, accomplished by building up through the past several years from rates of production on which quiteaccurate information is available. The figures obtained have been checked against the most logical of the currentestimates and the curves here shown are the result. v_ . Assumptions and Methods Censorship has for some time prohibited the printing ofdirect information on actual rates of production. Fre- quently, however, information on floor space, labour force,appropriations, and other such data has appeared and has made possible the working out of production rate figuresby the use of constants developed on the basis of known actual practice in this country. These constants follow: — MISCELLANEOUS CONSTANTS FOR COMPUTATION — •> 1 ! d i Allies Ra fi %1 J io to I? I •£- c 51 [T including planesfrom -»- 1 _ -& u.s\ n1956 V ' U.S. *' ' 1937 i ii> ~ es 8 I 0 I -»? i > / \ 7if /// W1 !f)w /?; -5v 1938 T959 1940 71f-| / f "m I f i / Result o otal wa f , / *I? wr> i (dc ar "7 r-Total planes ! delivered to t Uni*ad State 17/f-United Sftry | >4rmy ondN t o»r service i 1 nltedS -> servic counts d servl 11942 IT ofes Pit•emih Allies for deliveryC0 loises) 9 lesmy r 30 21 29 27 26 IS 24 23 22 21 Jl8 I It.I14 1.2 o Sil 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 I 0 / Unit — = Hies ding pi rom - ed Siat %y and England Prance 1936 1937 ' II Mill Rate of / 1 es * > airplaneJCtion I lo y \ J/ 11\\J f 11 /// / 1//, // # i9sa \ 1 t 1939 / 1/ JH r r' / _#1 i I ,I / f — J / 1 f / 7~ u vie r * niied Staffs 1 for Us otvn ss is and Allies 1940 ; 1 1 l^.<i s 1941 U / lotted States lo the All for Its own —J 1442 Item Concentration Money Value ... Money Value Money Value (Approx. Average) Weight Value ... Weight Value ... Unit Square Feet per Man Dollars per Sq. Ft. per Year Dollars per Man per Year ... Dollars per Pound Pounds per Sq. Ft. per Year Pounds per Man per Year ... Aeroplane Structure 100 56 5,600 7.5 7.5 750 Engine andPropeller 204 49 10,000 7.5 6.6 1,340 It is assumed : — 1—that capacity conditions, which are approximatelytwo full day shifts, maintain. 2 that all-metal type of aeroplane structure is used.3 that average size of aeroplane orders are lots of 400; and that engine and propeller factories are operating nearcapacity. ° * r F 6 4 that a profit margin of 10 per cent, is realised.5^ that labour average rates are: — aeroplane factory $7o/hr. engine factory ' ....:... $8o/hr. • that aeroplane structure weight is equal to gross weightess useful load and less weight of engine, propeller and "istruments. Fig. 1 (above) shows rates of aircraftproduction. Fig. 2 (left) shows total air strengths. 7—that floor space includes stockroom but excludes officespace. As a sample of the method used, the following examplesare given: — " A "—How near is the American aircraft industry to itscapacity ? , Aeroplanes: With about 8,250,000 sq. ft. of floor space and60,000 workmen, we have 137.5 S<1- ft. per man and there- fore are 73 per cent, capacity, which is estimated to be100 sq. ft. per man. Engines and propellers: With about 3,500,000 sq. ft. offloor space and 16,000 workmen, we have 218 sq. ft. per man and therefore are 94 per cent, capacity, which isestimated to be 204 sq. ft. per man. " B ' '—What is the current production rate of aeroplanesin Germany ? When averaging several sources one obtains a figure of400,000 men in the German aircraft industry, including the sub-contracting units. In our industry we have 100,000.We might then expect Germany's production rate to be four times our own. But her production lots averagegreater lhan ours, perhaps twice as many, making possible a greater output per man. Using .90 for this factor, weobtain 4.44 times our output which appears to approximate the facts. Analyses of this kind are admittedly approximations, butwhen figures obtained by many different methods of approach are checked and rechecked, and when a fairdegree of judgment is exercised, final answers near the truth should result. After due consideration of the information and the needfor caution in interpreting such data, the curves of Fig. 1 have been produced to show the monthly deliveries thathave maintained since January, 1936, and projected from the present time through 1942. The rather constant in-crease in rate of production of Germany since 1936, with her substantial lead over the Allies at that time, is noteworthy.The slow start which the Allies and the U.S. made and the relatively small production extending well into 1938,coupled with rapid increase of rate of production in Enland subsequent to 1938, are also important. Here I would like to emphasise the magnificent come-back that England has made in the air after a very slow
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