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Aviation History
1940
1940 - 2230.PDF
• 104 AUGUST 8, 1940 EXPANDING U.S. PRODUCTION (CONTINUED) The greatest ratio of expansion will be in personnel, as every effort will, no doubt, be made to work three shifts so as to utilise to its fullest every square foot of space and every piece of plant. T. P. Wright's estimate of increase of floor space in the airframe factories to bring present production rate up to a rate of 4,200 per month (50,000 per year) is to multiply it by 4J. So, for a 3,000 rate, the increase is probably 4-fold. The same figure applies to quantity, and therefore cost, of plant, since this is in general proportional to floor area. Production and Export To digress for a moment and investigate American pro- duction for 1939 a little more closely, it is found that all types for January, 1939, totalled 157, against 351 for January, 1940, an impressive increase. But this is some- what deceptive, for monthly totals vary considerably during the year (between 380 and 70). But taking the first three months of the year against the last three months, the respective totals are 549 and 569, only a very small increase. It is apparent that, though personnel was on the increase, this cause had not r_:ade itself felt as an effect on the output at the end of 1939. Exports, too, are interesting. Official American figures yield the following summaries; — U.S.A. AIRCRAFT EXPORTS t For 12 months of 1939 ... Per month ... • ... For first 4 months of 1940 Per month .Total for 16 months To France 457 38 40;i 100 860 To Britain 462 38 85 21 547 To Canada 68 6 40 10 108 Total U.S. experts to ail countries 1,445 120 856 214 2,301 All this shows that American exports of aircraft are not great in volume when seen from the point of view of the astronomical figures required for war consumption. And U.S.A. before the "war had the biggest export trade in aircraft, being in every world market. It is very difficult to reconcile the figures given in the daily papers with these official export figures. A Reuter report in the Daily Telegraph of July 27 says that a spokesman of the British Purchasing Commission an- nounced that 2,800 of the aeroplanes ordered by the Com- mission had been delivered. The export figures to the end of April, even including the Canadian number, only add up to 1,515. This leaves 1,300 to be accounted-for in less than three months, a monthly total of about 450, which is greatly in excess of the 121 per month average for the first four months of this year. The explanation may, perhaps, be in the interpretation of the words " delivered " and " exported." " Delivered " apparently does not mean " landed in England," as many people would think. It may mean " rolled out of the factory door and waiting crating and shipping." " Ex- ported " probably means "actually left by ship," so that if there is an accumulation of about 1,000 aeroplanes finished but awaiting shipping, the statements would be reconciled. Time Required for Expansion Dealing now with the time which must inevitably elapse before the production rate reaches this great figure of 3,000, which towers as high above the present rate as an eight-storey city building above a cottage. In this con- nection it is only possible to quote the statements of well- informed technical Americans. Mr. W. S. Knudsen is the production head of the newly formed National Defence Commission, and before that was one of the biggest execu- tives of General Motors. He said that the plan announced by Lord Beaverbrook would require the construction of 38 new factories for engines, parts, accessories and final assembly. He estimated that production at this rate could not be achieved before the middle of 1942 ; in other words, not less than two years from now. Mr. T. i?. Wright's view is more definite, and differs from the above. He says: "It is doubtful as to whether or not we can do better, since the energies of Germany were certainly concentrated to the utmost in arriving at the Air Force she now possesses. [He thinks that at July, 1940, Germany has a strength of 31,000 aeroplanes, and that production is 1,850 per month.—ED.] However, the gravity of the present situation and the complete backing of the country for the Programme, coupled with the mag- nificent general industrial development which we possess and the greater extent of our resources, may make pos- sible some improvement over the rate of progress realised by the Germans. "It is estimated that an airplane production rate of approximately 2,000 a month, or 24,000 a year, can be achieved in i\ years, or by January, 1943 ; a rate of pro- duction of 3,000 planes a month, or 36,000 a year, can be attained in four years, or by the spring of 1944 ; and a rate of just over 4,000 planes a month, or 50,000 planes a year, can be realised in five years, or b;1 July, 1945." Mr. Wright knows his subject, and is the biggest engineering executive of the Curtiss-Wright Corporation, which has at least 6,000 men employed, so he is accus- tomed to making estimates involving large numbers of men, materials and machines engaged on aircraft work. Mr. Knudsen, too, has occupied a big executive position in the automobile world, but we have saen in this country that the estimates of such people about rates of aircraft production frequently tend to be optimistic. Mr. Wright's estimate should undoubtedly be given the greater weight, and he says four years from now for 3,000 per month. Jffc this stage it should be remembered that the calculation^ in this article are based on the assumption that the total U.S. production rate is 3,000 per month, that being the rate at which Britain desires to buy aircraft from her. But what of her own military needs?—and her airline needs?4- and her exports? These will have to be supplied, too, and they are not small. President Roosevelt spoke about needing an air force of 50,000 aircraft and a yearly production rate of 50,000 (4,200 per month). The two rates if added would give the staggering total of 7,200 per month, with a few others, say 100, for commercial needs. Such a figure is no doubt impossible to attain under a decade. The answer is, of course, that by the time the 3,000 is attained, the 4,200 rate may not be needed. In any case, it is so far off that it is beyond the range of strategical or even political forecasting. Transatlantic Delivery HPHREE of British Overseas Airways most experienced trans- -I- oceanic pilots will soon be engaged on the delivery of bombers to this country from the United States and Canada. They are Captains Wilcockson, Bennett and Ross, and they arrived in Montreal on July 31 to start their job of " ferrying across the ditch" the various types which are being built for Britain over there. From the States will come the Consoli- dated 28-5 flying boats, Lockheed Hudsons, Douglas DB-7 and Martin 167 bombers, while Canada will supply the Handley Page Hampden and other British-designed and Canadian-built machines. These three pilots have been taken over by the Ministry of Aircraft Production. Captain Wilcockson is well known as the head of the Atlantic division of the Corporation and made the three survey flights of 1937. As a pioneer of commercial aviation in this country, he has been identified with it ever since the days of the Handley Page Transport, Ltd. Captain D. C. T. Bennett, an Australian, has made notable flights with Mercury, the upper component of the Mayo Com- posite, to South Africa, when he captured the long-distance record for seaplanes, and across the Atlantic to Montreal and New York. He is the author of the textbook, "The Com- plete Air Navigator." Captain Ian Ross is a Canadian who joined Imperial Airways in 1936 and was destined to be engaged on Atlantic work this summer, if there had been a service. Before that he was with the R.A.F. in Egypt and Singapore, following several years spent on airline flying in the rougher parts of Canada.
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