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Aviation History
1943
1943 - 1109.PDF
APRIL 29TH, 1943 FLIGHT 449 International Air Transport The Future Safeguarded Only Through Whole-hearted Co-ordination with Existing Surface Transport By A. KUNZLER TWENTY years ago the cost of air transport on oneton of goods for a distance of 200 miles might havebeen about ^100, requiring two or more aircraft. When this war is over we must expect that for the same sum a single machine will carry 5 tons for a longer dis- tance. One single aircraft might carry 100 tons in a few- years' time, comprising packages of great bulk and in- dividual weights. With the continuous technical progress in aviation the pay-load will tend to approach the pay-load of surface transport, but whatever the progress, it must be realised that the cost per ton per mile (taking all over- head expenses into consideration) will hardly ever come down to the level of surface transport. In wartime cost is of little or no importance provided the object is achieved. In the first few years following this war the urgency of trans- ferring certain cargoes to the exhausted and overrun coun- tries will naturally cause an extraordinary demand for air transport for obvious reasons. However, as the years go by the various means of inter- national transport will find their tine levels determined by the laws of international commerce. Economy in cost of transport will be the first consideration everywhere. The chief advantage which air transport can offer against surface transport is obviously speedier delivery, and this has secured it certain urgent traffics, particularly news- papers and mails. Also highly valuable cargoes, perish- ables and plants, etc. The last two are likely to reach their destinations in a satisfactory condition only if sent by air. Another advantage of air transport may be the saving of special packing and the lesser risk of theft and pilferage in cases where the carrying aircraft happens to go to an .airport immediately serving the ultimate destination. Lastly there may be the traffic of spare parts and acces- sories urgently needed for the upkeep or running of indus- trial plant, etc., where even a few hours' saving in transport time may make all the difference. Apart from newspapers, mails and perishables, it may be said that the bulk of the traffic consists of small parcels. It may be added that the advantage of the lesser war risk by air transport after the war will be of a temperary nature only. Basic Air Traffic Of the above-mentioned traffics the daily newspapers and the mails obviously form the basic traffic by air, where the total annual quantity can be roughly gauged. As to the other traffics, it is impossible even to make an estimate, particularly as after the war the exchange of goods may not necessarily move on similar lines as before the war through the creation of new centres of industry. Perish- ables, including fruit, flowers, fish, etc., are seasonable and subject to other factors which may make it impossible to gauge the tonnage. In many cases there is no return traffic. It is probably no exaggeration to say that the total of what may be called "typical" air traffic per annum in the European sphere would only be a small fraction of the total tonnage moving by all the various means of transport. Now the vital question arises as to what revenue would be secured on the basis of the above-mentioned "typical" air traffic; also what additional revenue might THE writer of this article has had wide experience of international transport, particularly between the United Kingdom and the different European countries. He thus approaches the subject of air transport from a different angle, seeing it not as a separate system of transport but as one aspect of the general transport problem. Only by co-ordinating all forms of transport, he argues, can full advantage be taken of each. be secured on traffics which could not be secured up to1939, but may be secured after this war in view of the considerably larger loading space on future modern trans-port aircraft. Let- us assume that no subsidies will exist, apart from payments by the Government for mail contracts. Here we come up against a factor which is almost entirely ignored by many people, some of whom have suffered heavy finan- cial losses by opening up new air services on what were considered to be promising fields of aerial transport. The freights which air transport has been able to secure in the past, and is likely to secure in the future, are related to the existing rates by surface transport services even on such traffic as is considered to be "typical" air traffic. Now the existing sea- freights and rail tariffs within the European sphere were evolved as a result of many years of experience and care- ful and scientific planning. The rates which were, and still are, charged are those which it is considered that the traffic can reasonably pay, taking a number of other factors into consideration. - The Continental railways (virtually all national) have invested a lot of money in their systems and employ much labour, and will stop at nothing to secure valuable revenue for their services. The subject of European rail tariffs is far too involved to go into here and would fill a large volume. Suffice it to say that for urgent traffic the existing schedules of carriage for transport by the fastest passenger services are mostly lower than the cost rates which the air companies would arrive at, even excluding any profit. Surface Competition In a fight to secure traffic by the process of cutting rates the last word would always rest with the surface interests, with the lowest actual cost of haulage per ton per mile. In the past it has been proved tha* reductions in freights did not create new traffic, but simply reduced the existing revenue on traffic carried by all routes. Here again it must be remembered that, with a few ex- ceptions, the chief European industrial centres are within a radius which permits transit overnight by surface trans- port. Further, there exist various alternative slower ser- vices by rail and road where the basic rate on general traffic might go down to under £'4 per ton between the chief centres. Even if it will take up to a week in transit against a few hours by air, cheapness invariably receives first consideration. The position between air and surface transport is quite different outside Europe by reason of the considerably greater distances involved, where not days, but weeks can be saved in delivery by air, or where surface transport is not satisfactory at all times. But even in regard to these transcontinental or transoceanic services it should be borne in mind that where the chief commercial centres can be reached without incurring any or much inland transport at either end, as is the case between New York, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires and the Western European capi- tals, the practical advantage of commercial air transport has its limits. The initial enormous demand for air space immediately after the war cannot serve as a criterion. After considering all these points, one particular aspect
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