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Aviation History
1945
1945 - 2205.PDF
49° FLIGHT NOVEMBER 8TH, 1945 NORTH PACIFIC ECONOMICS Thus the continental route is shorter by some 2,160 miles and, at the same time, offers a much safer journey, as the longest sea crossing is less than 100 miles. The fact that the travelling time would be about 9 hours less would have an important bearing on the views of prospective passengers. A comparison can now be made between these two routes, envisaging the type of aircraft that is expected to be generally available for immediate post-war operations. Operational data might well be somewhat as follows:— Take-off weight Four engines each with max. power for take-off of Normal economic cruising consump- tion on approx. 33 per cent, power (650 b.h.p. per engine) Petrol tankage Still-air range (no reserve) Still-air cruising speed on economic power at whatever altitude most suitable Empty weight Allowance for crew, food, papers and minor equipment Weight of oil .. Payload for 1,370 miles Payload for 2,400 miles 85,000 lb. 2,000 b.h.p. 0.48 lb./b.h.p. hour.2,800 imp. galls. 4,000 statute miles. 250 m.p.h, 55,000 lb. 2,350 lb. 1,000 lb. 16,000 lb. with 1,500 gals, petrol. 9,000 lb. with 2,500gals, petrol. A convenient basis for comparing approximate costs is the rate of flying hours scheduled a year. Assuming that two services a day are operated in each direction on each route, the total flying hours per annum for the Island route would be approximately 67,000,* while those for the Continental route would be 53,4oof only, i.e., 13,600 hours a year less or equivalent to a reduction of 20 per cent. If the first element of economic air transport then be applied to these two routes, it will be seen that considerable economies result from the use of the contin'ental route. Cost Comparison First, the saving in initial capital outlay will be large, as there will be required less aircraft, less spares, a smaller base with less capacious hangar accommodation and smaller workshops, etc. Secondly, the proportionate saving in running costs will be almost as great. There will be less petrol and oil consumed, fewer flight crews and maintenance staff employed and fewer engine, airscrew and component changes, resulting in lower maintenance and overhaul costs. Because of the use of an additional station and the greater passenger accommodation provided, there will be slightly higher expenses for ground operations and equip- ment, passengers' services, sales and advertising expenses. These are, however, very minor items compared with the main expenditure and may be ignored for the purposes of this comparison. The use of this extra station will also result in 1,460 additional landings and take-offs a year. These will increase the maintenance work to a certain extent, but not sufficiently to approach that on the island route caused by the greater number of hours flown a year. Allowances for depreciation of continental route equip- ment will be lower since there is less equipment involved General administrative expenses may be expected to be much the same. To illustrate the lower capital outlay required it will be assumed that maintenance facilities will permit the aircraft on both routes to operate at the rate of 3,000 hours each per annum Thus a fleet of 18 aircraft only would be required, compared with 23 for the island route, to operate the same frequency of services. Since aircraft of the size • Allowing a mean ground speed on all stages of 240 mp.h.+ 5 per cent, fordead flying. t Allowing a mean ground speed on all stages of 235 m.p.h.+ 5 per cent, fordead flying. under consideration, and in the numbers concerned, cost in the region of £i sterling per pound weight, the saving in the total cost of the fleet would be about £425,000. Similarly, the number of spare complete engine units required might be taken as 30, allowing 16 spares at base to cover overhauls, one at each station and 25 per cent, reserve. On the same basis 37 would be required for the island route (20 spare and 7 on the route, plus 25 per cent). The purchase of the smaller number of engines would decrease expenditure by some £12,000 to £15,000. Running costs would bfi»-equally advantageous on the continental route. EWexample, two million gallons less petrol a year would be used and, assuming the average cost of 100-octane aviation petrol to be 2s. a gallon, there would be a saving of £200,000 a year. Nine hundred flying hours annually per flight crew is a customary peace-time standard. This has been found, on overseas routes, to result in a low sickness factor. At this rate only 60 crews would be required against 75 for the island route, a saving of 15 complete flight crews. Assuming each crew to number 8J, and the combined salaries of each crew to total £3,650 a year, the annual expense? would be £58,500 less. ( Engine Costs The number of engine overhauls required a yeao^would be only 432 on the continental route as compared with 536 on the alternative, assuming each engine receives a complete overhaul every 500 running hours. With a mean cost per engine overhaul of perhaps £100, allowing for labour, replacement of faulty parts and running-in and check tests, the saving on the continental route would be £10,400 per annum. Thus, if every aspect of comparative costs were studied, it seems probable that the use of the continental route would require about 15 to 20 per cent, less initial capital outlay and would cost perhaps 10 to 15 per cent, less to operate. If the second elgment of economic air transport now be considered, th«<advantages obtained by the use of the continental route are^ very great indeed. This route provides for a through capacity for pay load, for each service, of 16,000 lb. as compared with 9,000 lb. on the island route. The key stage, from Fairbanks to Vancouver of 1,370 statute miles, is 1,030 miles shorter than the very long counterpart on the Trans-Pacific route from Honolulu to San Francisco. No consideration is being given in this article to the intermediate loads offering. They, would be likely to be heavy on the continental route and practically non-existent on the island route and thus, if included, would serve only to paint an even brighter picture of the former. Let it now be assumed that on both routes the weight of passengers and cargo is evenly divided between the through capacities available. The maximum number of passengers and the maximum amount of cargo tjren carried on the respective routes in a year, in each direction, would be : Continental .. 29,200 passengers plus 5,840,000 lb. cargo.Island.. .. 12,775 „ ,, 2,355,000 lb. In practice the load factor rarely exceeds 90/95 per cent., even over the key stages of long-distance inter-continental services, but for the purposes of this argument it will be assumed that a 100 per cent, load factor is maintained throughout the year. If commercial rates, on both routes, were 2M. p^ passenger mile and 2s. per cargo ton mile (based on pre-war rates and probably quite reasonable for immediate post-war operations; in practice, of course, they would depend partly on actual costs) annual gross revenues would be provided of £8| million for the Continental roiure and £5 million for the island route. No allowance has Deen made for the possibility of a sliding scale for commercial rates, or some other form of charging, as it would become un- necessarily complex for this discussion. Thus the former i First Pilot, £1,000 p.a.; Second Pilot. £800 ; Navigating Officer, £500 ; RadioOfficer, £500 ; Engineer Officer, £500 ; Purser, £350 . and two stewards, £250 each
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