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Aviation History
1946
1946 - 2051.PDF
OCTOBER IOTH, 1946 FLIGHT 403 The Status of Civil Aviation in 1946 Conclusion of Sir Henry Self's Paper before the R.Ae.S. (Continued from page 372, October 3rd) Aircraft Research, Development and Production Because of the great potentialities ofaircraft as a weapon of war, govern- ntal interest in design and productionthe past had tended to be centred primarily on military requirements. Inthe period between the two World Wars, Government support and encouragementof the development of civil aircraft was sporadic, and there was no seriousgovenimental attempt to create and build up a civil branch of the aviationindustry until the Cadman Committee indicated the probable results of pastneglect and strongly recommended State assistance to encourage the developmentof suitable types of civil aircraft. Unfortunately, war broke out beforeany tangible results could flow from these measures. The outbreak of war neces-sitated the suspension of all aircratt purposes, and also of almost all transportaircraft production in the United King- dom and throughout the Commonwealth.The resultant shortage of transport air- craft created immense difficulties for civilas well as military aviation. These diffi- culties were both short-term and long-term. Looking at the more distant prospect,reports were received from across the Atlantic of the great progress being madein America in the design and production of new transport aircraft. There wasevery prospect that America would have a commanding lead in this sphere at theend of the war. It was well known that this flowed in large part from an under-standing which was reached early in the war between the British and AmericanGovernments that Britain would concen- trate on the production of fighter andbomber aircraft while the U.S.A., in addition to their great military pro-gramme, would be responsible for supply- ing the transport aircraft needs of theAllies. Experience both here and in Americahad shown that a period of at least five years will normally elapse from the datewhen the requirement for a new large civil air liner is first started until thedate when it comes into service. Thus, there was no time to be lost. It wasdecided, therefore, to appoint a Com- mittee under the chairmanship ot LordBabazon of Tara. By about 1950 the majority of theconverted and adapted types should have been replaced in service with the Corpora-tions by the new purely civil types that were being developed to-day. But wemust not rest content at that. During the next four years we must be planningand laying the foundations of the air- craft fleets that would be required in the'953-56 period to replace the present Brabazon and other types which wouldbe the mainstay during the 1950-53 period. It was very difficult to forecastthe operational requirements and traffic trends of ten yeais ahead, and this diffi-culty called for bold decisions within the next year or so, if we were to be in thevan of aircraft progress in the mid- nineteen-fifties. , . • * • The Financial Picture It would, Sir Henry continued, be help-iul to consider, first, what we meant by " selt-supporting." The unpremeditatedanswer might be " operating with government subsidy," but, before accept-ing this statement, we must decide what we meant by " government subsidy."Right down to, the present day, there had been some form of government sub-sidization in every air transport operat- ing country. The most common formsof subsidization had been : 1. Direct financial payments ; 2. Air mail payments exceeding theeconomic rate for the work done; 3. The provision of navigationalfacilities; 4. The provision of airport facilities ,5. The provision of aircraft; 6. Taxation concessions; 7. The financing of aeronautical re-search and development. The nations of the world have agreedthat these practices must endr Costs were high because (i) equipment was unde-veloped and relatively inefficient and (ii) demand at economic prices was limited.Demand was small because (a) accept- ance of the new mode of transport wasslow; (b) costs were high; (c) collective demand, e.g., for better communications,was latent and inarticulate. In fact, ttie growth cycle, if not given outside impe-tus, might tend to be a vicious circle ol stagnation. British airline operations were atpresent in a transitional stage. New ser- vices were being started, existing servicesincreased, and new types of aircraft intre- d uced. Organization and methods adoptedfor war purposes but inappropriate for fully civil operations, were being reshapedfor peacetime working, and the whole operating structure was being regroupedOperating costs were, therefore, in a similar state of flux. It was certain, how-ever, that with a restoration of opera- tions to a peacetime commercial basis,the introduction of the new and more efficient types of aircraft now com:ngalong, and, particularly, with a general substantial increase in the utilization otresources, costs would come down con- siderably On this basis the indications werethat the aircraft available in the early 1950s should be capable of operation atfares of 2|d to 3d per passenger-mile. On the Empire and Atlantic routes, it shouldbe possible to obtain a higher utilization than on the U.K. and European routes,amounting in some cases to 3,000 or more hours per year. Fares, based on cost,of the order of 3|d to 4d per passenger- mile would appear to be capable ofachievement within a reasonable time. A fare of • id per mile worked out at about ^14 per thousand miles, yieldingtypical fares of about /50 single to New York, £100 to South Africa or SouthAmerican and ^150 to Australia. The Psychological Reaction of Humanity Sir Henry then spoke on public in-terest in air transport, a subject he thought to be of the utmost importance.Viewed, he said, with perfect candour there could be little question but that,before the recent war, there was ou the whole a fairly widespread indifference inthe Eastern Hemisphere to air trauspoit services and their possibilities, except forthe visionaries, the more enterprising travellers and, in the ranks of business-•men, those who saw value in the saving of time.It was true, he said, that this stage had been passed in the United Stateswhere real scope existed for a network ot air services meeting the needs of a largwpopulation scattered over a widespread area. Great saving of time and regu-larity of services at cheap costs were practicable because of the exceptionalgeographical.advantages which that con- tinent offered. The resalt had been thata large proportion of the community had become very much air-conscious andacquired the habit of using the air ser- vices provided. But even there it wouldbe idle to suggest thjit there had yel developed a mass consciousness. That in itself would necessitate-' a verycarefully planned movement to get the public rightly and genuinely interestedin the possibilities oi air travel. Apan from that sub-conscious distaste therewould, in so far as one could estimate from the pre-war years, still linger adefinite indifference among the masses 61 the people. They were proud oi theachievements which had been made an-.l interested in the technique whereby greatadvances were revealed and new possi- bilities opened. But there seemed noreason to believe that they had evei thought of it as applying directly tothemselves or affecting their own lives. They still preferred to look to thecustomary surface means of transport as normal and implied by their attitude thatanyone who travelled by air was a bit out of the ordinary. Sir Henry emphasized the need for afull pnd careful analysis of the reaction of the ordinary man in the street to thedevelopment of air transport, and even further emphasized the possibilities forinternational understanding and achieve- ment of human aspirations by openingup that great vista of air travel for the people fit cheap rates. Conclusion In conclusion, Sir Henry made anassessment oi political and national trends, because of the great importancewhich he felt was attached to that ap- preciation of the position adopted by theUnited Kingdom in the development oi Continued at foot of page 405)
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