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Aviation History
1948
1948 - 2170.PDF
74° FLIGHT DECEMBER 23RD, 1948 The Future of Air Transport too vast. The golden rule for all transport organizations is a fairly obvious one—only fare-paying passengers should be carried. This is where my statistical records again come into their own. A careful evaluation of the appropriate figures brings out two clear features in air transport operation. First: An airline company can pay its way if it has no aircraft and is thus saved the cost of the associated operating departments. Second : All well-organized charter operators seem to be able to make a handsome profit by the simple expedient of carrying economic loads in economic aircraft over carefully chosen economic routes. The solution to all our problems is, therefore, quite obvious. The airline operator who finds himself per- manently and unaccountably^ the red should sell all his aircraft and make a deal with some reliable charter concern for the permanent hire of all the latter's aircraft. Knowing the number of passengers likely to be carried and the fares to be charged, and having tentatively enquired about the cost of a long-period loan of aircraft and crews, the airline company cannot fail, unless it is staffed exclusively by morons, to arrange a clear profit for itself. The charter operator, on the other hand, is not likely to be foolish enough to accept the work at any figure other than one which leaves him well covered. Everybody, consequently, is happy. There is a further small advantage in the scheme: The charter operator can, without any loss of prestige or the risk of a question in the House, purchase second-hand foreign aircraft of a suitable type and at a satisfactorily low price. Thus, while maintaining a reasonable profit level, he can hire his aircraft out for a still lower figure, and everyone is happier than ever; even the taxpayer, who so rarely has any good reason for congratulating his rulers. Now, having settled the problem of air transport eco- nomics, let us return to the means by which the industry can be encouraged to produce the right kind of aircraft fiS- 2. with the right kind of payload. In other words, to give each embryonic aircraft the right kind of environment. I have entitled my third section Defeating the Technician By way of a start, I suggest that you glance at Fig. 2, which is also based on my statistical records and which forms the crux, not to say the nadir, of the entire problem. The curves are the average for a number of types rii aircraft, with extrapolations to indicate likely trends. It will be seen that, during any particular development period, the all-up weight rises while the payload falls. Similar curves can be drawn to show the gradual reduction of performance in other directions, but this particular example will suffice to make the point. - Two features of the graph are immediately apparent: For a relatively short period the two curves remain more or less parallel, with the all-up weight and the payload rising together. Later, however, the two curves diverge, until, at some hypo- thetical point in time, the former is infinity and the latter is zero. Fig. 3 provides detail supporting evidence and shows 120 100 12 3 4 5 DEVELOPMENT PERIOD-YEARS 12,000 11,000 ,0.000 9.OOO "ORIGINAL MAXIMUM".JPAYLOAD 8.OOO CD -> 6OOO §4.000 a: E.OOO O -Z.OOO -4,000 -6,000 -8.000 MAXIMUM PAYLOADAT DEVELOPED SPUFFING'S ALLOWANCES p 4OO miles to alte?ft#tive airfield 3 hour sUnd-otf 20°/. for (6vigational DEVELOPE DS»AYLOADORIGINAL A.U.W. \ FULLJ -TANKS 1OO 2OO 3OQ 4OO 5OO 6OO 7OO STAGE DISTANCE (DR. SPUFFING'S ALLOWANCES)- STATUTE MILES Fig. 3. the payload and range of an average aircraft at the peak of its development liie—say, at the end of the third year. The secondary curve shows the payload as it would have been had the all-up weight remained constant while development continued. Here, again, the answer seems to be crystal clear. Development periods must be reduced so that, in the words of Hassan, the dog of all-up weight is dragged away by the leash of production from the tail of payload. Think of the energy that would thereby be saved for other purposes. The technicians, tearful for a few weeks, would soon have bright faces again as they were given nice clean sheets of paper and sharpened pencils for the attack on another project; test pilots would cease to suffer sleepless nights at the thought of yet another series of handling trials at a still higher all-up weight; and even the sales departmen+—gloomy at the thought of the better perform- ance which, they imagined, might have been offered to the customers at a much later date—could concentrate for once on the issue of finalized figures. The public relations department would no longer need to sit up at night thinking oi new ways of telling the same story, or of explaining to a gaping world the exact meaning of the technical achievement which offered only a very slight reduction in payload for such a splendid increase in all-up weight. The same cease-fire order would apply with equally good effect to all the ancillary features of the aircraft which provide the visiting airline experts with such opportunities for specialist attention. - We have, in effect, removed the aircraft from its environ- ment before it' has become irrevocably diseased. The handling characteristics retain their original charm, the wing loading remains light, the take-off power is low but quite adequate, and the equipment is simple. But will the airline operator buy it? That is a matter for the sales and public relations people. As a scientist all I can say is that environmentalism is its own reward. R. C.
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