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Aviation History
1953
1953 - 0288.PDF
286 FLIGHT TOMORROW TAKES SHAPE - A Dissertation on Prospective Airliners GEOMANCY, defined in the dictionary as "divination by means of figures or lines," might be said to be the means employed for the writing of this article. The way of the prophet has always been hard, and the author—a member of our staff—is prepared to have his prophecies challenged. BEFORE discussing the characteristics of the airliners which are likely to be seen on the world's airways by i960, it will be advantageous to review the progress made since the last Commercial Aviation Number of this journal was published (May 16th, 1952). During this period, two major factors have changed the airline scene : the introduction of low-cost fares on a very widespread scale, and the advent of high-altitude turbojet airliners as vehicles for the transport of fare-paying passengers. Both these factors are welcome as evidence of the generally healthy state of air transport. The impact of the Comet upon airline operators and the general public has been greater than that of any other transport. Reaction has, in the main, been favourable, but many responsible persons have expressed the view that B.O.A.C.'s decision to operate this type of aircraft is somewhat premature. It is exceedingly difficult to determine to what extent this view is an attempt by aircraft manufacturers and operators to stave off the severe competition which the Comet implies. Generally speaking, however, most of the criticisms levelled at the aircraft have been uttered in all good faith. American airliner manufacturers—the views of four of whom are expressed on pages 277-281—know only too well that to sell turbine-powered transports they must aim at producing a far more advanced aircraft than either the Comet 1 or the Viscount 700. Both these aircraft have by now flown thousands of hours over a period of years, and more advanced types are already being prepared in this country to take their place. Transport-aircraft production has been something of an American preserve, and we must expect U.S. manufacturers to do their utmost to hold this market until they can offer truly modern aircraft—-as opposed to "pulled-and-beefed" versions of war-time designs. A study of the American transport picture rapidly resolves itself into a study of the American gas-turbine scene. Without wishing to offend their manufacturers, we cannot visualize the J-40, J-71 or J-73 turbojets in airline service. Interest, however, centres about the Pratt and Whitney J-57 and the Curtiss-Wright J-65 Sapphire. The latter engine is still essentially the English Sapphire and is therefore well known on both sides of the Atlantic. It should make a good transport engine, for it is small, compact and offers above-average economy. The J-57, however, is a different story. Of "two-spool" layout, this mighty Pratt and Whitney achieve ment has potentialities as great as those of any aircraft engine now flying. Construction is largely of steel, and the compression ratio is extremely high. The former feature should permit a great deal of development to higher powers and temperatures, while the latter implies very low fuel-consumption. Unfortunately, the engine's bulk and steel structure make it very heavy, and fuel economy is not, we believe, significantly better than that of simpler units. The J-57 could not be "buried" in any present wing—with the exception of a large-chord delta—and, in fact, we are unaware of any American gas turbine capable of efficient airliner propulsion at the present time. American turboprops appear to have caused much trouble, and have, as yet, amassed an insignificant flight-time. On the other hand, there are indications that turbine-propeller units of great promise are being developed in America, and we look for ward to the day when they will power transport aircraft. But it is still the next five years which will be decisive in the first round of this battle for markets, and the new American turboprops are unlikely to exert great influence during this period. Of the types of airframe which the American manufacturers are developing for the new transport era very little is known definitely; but much may be surmised. U.S. operators have expressed their requirements publicly and have stated, inter alia, that they are opposed to the development of any transport with fewer than . Although not necessarily accurate in detail these sketches give a good impression, for the first time of (from the top) the Avro delta transport, the Vickers V.C.7 and the Handfey Page H.P. 97. 60 seats. They also want to reduce automatic devices to a mini mum; many have expressed disapproval of the universal British practice of burying the engines in the wing—for controversial reasons. In general, American operators have been publicly pessimistc and, perhaps, over-cautious. This is the legacy of the present comfortably profitable American era, which no one wants to see disturbed. But if U.S. airlines are to compete on their international routes, some courageous decisions must be taken. The four American companies whose chiefs' messages appear in this issue are each known to be actively developing jet transport aircraft. From pure conjecture it appears likely that these products will be sleek, rakish designs of up to 160ft span and length, with a structure-weight percentage of over 30. Empty weight is likely to exceed 100,000 lb and wing loading will exceed 75 lb/sq ft. Power is likely to come from four J-57 turbojets in two huge pods which may also house bogie undercarriage units. The new airliners are likely to be under-powered at first, but should offer a fine basis for development. The prestige of its manufacturer will ensure that each makes a great impression when it is publicly launched; but no seat is likely to be sold in an American jet until 1958 at the earliest. In Europe a wide variety of new transports is under active development in several countries. France will shortly be able to show a turbojet transport developed jointly by the S.O. and S.E. groups, and other work is going ahead on designs by Breguet, Dassault and Hurel Dubois, employing turbojets, turboprops and ducted fans. The latter type of engine has been under continuous study in France since the end of the war. SIAI-Marchetti are developing new transports in Italy; Fokker have completed the detail design on the F.27 Friendship medium-range DC-3 replace ment, and Russia is certain to be developing new transports to replace her own rather time-expired equipment. Canadair, Ltd., have prepared a specification for a medium-range airliner (very similar to the Fokker F.27) which is available in several forms under the style Canadair CL-21. British designers are showing signs of increased activity in the short- and medium-range fields; one example—mentioned by an American source—is the "Handley Page H.P.R.3." On the other hand, there is still no true "Rapide replacement," for which this journal has pressed for so long. It is also to be expected that the next few years will see even more advanced developments of the Viscount and Britannia brought to the prototype stage. These aircraft will have great carrying capacity and high speed, and may be able to offer world- beating economy. At the present time there is no evidence of any impending shortage of good transport power-plants, and it appears likely that British airliner designers will not have to work their aircraft around an unsuitable engine. Particularly in the field of "mainliners," the future appears very bright for this country. In spite of the very high cost of developing such aircraft, four British firms have on their drawing-
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