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Aviation History
1953
1953 - 0290.PDF
288 FLIGHT, 6 March 1953 AMERICAN APPRECIATION t U.S. Airline Trends Examined ------- by OUR AMERICAN CORRESPONDENT PERHAPS the most significant trend in the air transport field in America during 1952 was the growth of "coach," or tourist-class, air traffic. Although nearly every big domestic operator was running such services in 1951 (generally during the off-period night hours, when his equipment would otherwise have been idle), it was not until last year that the full potentialities of this type of operation were realized. By the end of last summer the airlines were saying that this was really the only way to make money, and that it would not be long before the full-fare services degenerated into de luxe affairs, fit only for Hollywood moguls and those with unlimited expense accounts. To take advantage of this probable state of affairs all the big carriers began to convert their first-line aircraft to tourist interiors, and to put on services at times of day which were rather more convenient. With such aircraft, and under such conditions, there is very little difference between a first-class and a tourist-class trip, anyhow as far as elapsed time and method of operation are con cerned. The only thing a passenger has to put up with is a crowded interior, no free meals (although coffee and biscuits are available) and times of departure or arrival which may not always suit his convenience. The normal cost of a trip, say between New York and Los Angeles, is Si 58, while the tourist fare is only $99, and with such a considerable saving it is reasonable to suppose that the higher-fare services will not be able to compete for long with the much cheaper, but nearly as comfortable, and certainly as efficient, coach operation. • • • WHEN talking about the coach-fare services, however, it is worth remembering that it was not the major scheduled airlines who brought this type of transportation before the American public, but the irregular, non-scheduled companies who started up in 1946 and 1947. Operated mostly by ex-Servicemen, short on finance but long on optimism, they began to run their converted war-time aircraft as and when and where they could, carrying passengers for the lowest possible fares, and by so doing proving that there was a market to be tapped and a job to be done in this field. As time went by, economic forces, lack of capital, inefficiency and pressure from the regular airlines gradually forced these pioneers out of business. Their accident-rate was too high and their profits—if any—too low; and by 1950 only a very few of the more responsible big "irregulars" remained. But the demand did, and the licensed domestic operators, benefiting from this initiative, carried on with C.A.B.-licensed coach services— and found them good, so good that they now form the most important type of operation on the companies' immediate horizon. To show what interest there is among the large carriers, it may be added that T.W.A. are converting all their Constellations to coach seating, American Airlines turning 12 DC-6s into 80- seaters, and United converting their DC-6s to 72 seats. One operator, T.W.A., claims a record for its 1952 domestic and inter national coach services of 715 million passenger-miles. Overall coach traffic was up some 83 per cent over 1951. • • • IN the cargo field the 1952 figures have not yet been published, but it is certain they will show an increase over 1951. American Airlines, for instance, report a 26 per cent increase in their ton- miles flown—from 37,194,000 in 1951 to 46,898,000 in 1952, and the Flying Tiger Line's domestic freight ton-miles flown increased by 48 per cent. Although the total increase may not be as great (an unofficial source has estimated it as about 14 per cent), the efficiency of the cargo operator is steadily increasing and the education of the manufacturer and consumer continues. The Civil Aeronautics Administration have produced a cargo survey which, using all sources of information, suggests that there will be some 400 million ton-miles of domestic cargo by 1955 and 600 to 800 million by i960. To move this they estimate that 160 cargo aircraft will be needed—there are approximately 100 to no in use today—and they lay stress on the importance of an aircraft specifically designed for such work. The growth of cargo business since the war, in million ton-miles, is as follows :— 1945 22 1949 i74i 1946 82| 1950 229 1947 128 1951 246 1948 i50j Despite these ever-increasing figures, however, the air-freight industry as a whole reports that it is not yet making money; die domestic passenger lines still rely for their bread and butter on passengers and air-mail subsidies, and the big irregulars—such as Flying Tigers and Slick—on Government cargo contracts or additional maintenance and servicing work at their main bases. In this connection Flying Tiger Line say that only 21 per cent of their 1951 revenues came from domestic freight, while 43 per cent was derived from Government overseas air-lifts (mostly to the Far East) and 36 per cent from charter, renting, servicing, etc. It would seem that the lack of sufficient and suitable cargo aircraft, which must permit rates of about 10 cents per ton-mile, is the main block to increased turnover and profit. The DC-6B and the freight version of the Lockheed 1049 will go some way towards meeting requirements, but even as pure freighters these aircraft probably demand a cargo rate of about 15 cents a ton-mile, while the rates on cargo-cum-passenger machines, such as those operated by T.W.A., American, United and Eastern, must be nearer 20 cents. In the transatlantic field, Seaboard and Western Airlines and Transocean Airlines are the largest operators and (much to the annoyance of the two regular Atlantic carriers, T.W.A. and Pan American) have carried on a fairly successful cargo service between Europe and the States. The whole question as to their future is even now before the Civil Aeronautics Board, who have been criticized for taking so long to get down to brass tacks on this ticklish subject. THE trend of passenger traffic in the States has, of course, been upward ever since the war. The following table gives the figures for 1945 to 1951 (the final 1952 figures are not published at the time of writing and the total given below is provisional) :— PASSENGERS CARRIED ( x 1,000) 1945 7,051 1949 16,600 1946 13,245 1950 19,022 1947 14,249 1951 24,668 1948 14)550 1952 25,500 1952 passenger-miles flown: 13,150,000,000 As has been pointed out, it is certain that there will be more and more coach-class travel, particularly if there is any sort of a busi ness recession or if there is a reduction in Government military orders. Such a trend will increase the number of passengers carried and probably improve load factors. During 1952 there were some 1,016 transport aircraft in operation throughout the United States, and a considerable number of them were new. There were, for example, several improved versions of the DC-6, besides (though no more are being built) the new Martin 404s now operated by Eastern Airlines and T.W.A. But perhaps the most noticeable thing about the economics for this past year has been the steady decline in airline profits, despite an increase in revenue. At the end of December the Air Transport Association Economic Research Bureau estimated that although the 1952 revenues would be up something like 14 per cent the profits would be 10 per cent lower than 1951. This is largely due to the considerable increase in expenses—not only because of the purchase of new and larger equipment, but because of the steadily rising cost of everything connected with airline operation. It is also safe to say that load factors suffered—and will continue to suffer—as a result of the increase in size and capacity of the first-class-fare aircraft introduced during the past twelve months. So far as the domestic accident-rate was concerned, this was remarkably good; that of the American international services, on the other hand, was not. From January 1st, 1952, to Decem ber 31st, 1952, fatalities were 0.4 passenger fatalities per 100 million passenger miles on domestic services, but 3.1 on international routes. From February 12th, 1952, to February nth, 1953, however, there were no domestic fatalities whatsoever, a truly remarkable record and one of which everyone should be very proud. The total of passengers carried during this latter period amounted to z$\ million. • • • A S a wind-up to any discussion on transport developments here • it is sad to have to report that American disparagement of British turbine progress has broken out again. This is probably the natural result of the operating successes and international sales of Comets and Viscounts. It may also be the result of a definite campaign to embarrass the current discussions on mutual recogni tion of Certificates of Airworthiness for turbine aircraft. But it is a rather sorry spectacle, and appears to have spread to circles
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