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Aviation History
1954
1954 - 1511.PDF
672 The type of transport which may become widely accepted on medium-stage routes in a few years' time. With four highly efficient two-spool turboprops of about 4,000 h.p. each, it should carry 90 passengers for about the same direct cost per mile as the present Viscount. The Airliner of the Future Things Seen in a 1954 Crystal Bail By W. T. GUNSTON WHEN probing the mists of the future, it is essential that the prophet should not allow himself to be lured into a dream world in which the hard facts of life are softened or ignored. In the present connection, it must always be borne in mind that airliners exist not for the prestige of a company or nation, but solely in order that the public services of an airline may be flown efficiently and with profit. Today no aircraft constructor remains unaware of this fact; all too often he has learned it by bitter experience, as a dozen sterile prototypes bear witness. In any case, the development of a modern airliner is so immense an undertaking that the number of firms able to complete the task can be counted on the fingers. No company, however big, can complete it without the most detailed co-operation of all interested parties, especi ally potential customers. Today, most airlines are thinking very seriously about fleet re-equipment. It is ten years since the newest DC-3 was built, and even the first Constellations, Convairs and DC-6s are doubtless beginning to feel their age. More than ever before, the airlines of the world are faced widi the problem of choosing the right aircraft—it must be the right aircraft —from many projects of unprecedented variety. Only very few of these projects will succeed; the remainder never will. In many cases, decisions will rest upon factors unrelated to the performance claimed for the new aircraft; in every case, the operator will order only when he is certain that a large number of the same type of aircraft will eventually go into world-wide service. All new commercial aircraft must, as we have said, show that they can do what can only be described as a "useful job" while making a profit. In practice, this simple dictum cannot be applied directly; only the judgment of long experience can be relied upon to guide the operator in his choice. He will, naturally enough, conduct a careful survey of the poten tial performance of each new project as it applies to his own routes, and the answers to this may provide a basis for dis cussion. Other factors, however, cannot be ignored—among them such subjects as the financial strength of the airline company or nation, the availability of trained engineers, national prejudice or a tendency always to buy from a par ticular source, and the amount of competition to be expected. On top of all this is the fact that nobody will sign on the dotted line until he has satisfied himself that he will not be the only operator of the type—or even one of the only three or four. Furthermore, most airlines have very definite opinions of the calibre of each of the aircraft-manufacturing companies; and the "strength" of the company (in money, experience and tenacity), and its approach to the subject of after-sales service, will have a very great effect on the decision of whether to buy, or not. The whole subject is so vast that the remainder of this essay is divided into sections, in each of which is analysed the needs of a particular type of airline. The first such sec tion is concerned with the future long-range transport—what might be termed a "mainliner." Almost the only unchanging thing about air transport is the Earth itself. Within limits, London is not getting any farther away from New York, nor is it getting any nearer. On this basis, then, some planning can be done. The earliest "global" air routes—those of our own Imperial Airways—were based on aircraft which, although they spread a fine acreage of fabric, were nevertheless puny and weak in comparison with their counterparts of today. The route to India in 1929 underlines this: London-Paris-Basle-Genoa-Rome-Naples- Corfu-Athens-Suda Bay-Tobruk-Alexandria-Gaza ... an average of scarcely 200 miles per hop. By 1946, the Con stellation began to cover the earth in 1,500-mile stages, and within very few months we shall have the Britannia, with which the operator can plan his routes while holding a ter restrial globe in the palm of his hand. With the Britannia, the airline has an aircraft with all the range needed; whatever the future holds, there seems little point in trying to fly more than 5,000 miles in one hop. (Not so the bomber; 5,000 miles may only be half the trip in this case.) It would appear, therefore, that no transport need ever be built grossing more than 250,000 lb, or thereabouts. Any increase in size would involve all kinds of penalties—more difficult hangarage and maintenance, less frequent schedules, runway troubles, and a much less "flexible" fleet—for no apparent gain, apart from a nebulous prestige advantage. TABLE I: SOME POWER UNITS FOR LARGE TRANSPORTS Type Turbo- Compound Nomad Turbojet By-pass Turboprop ... Aircraft cruising speed (m.p.h.) 350 200 MOO 500/600 500 400/500 Fuel and cost per gal (pence) 115-145 grade 33d Diesel oil 20d Kerosine 22d Kerosine 22d Kerosine 22d Weight of four installed p/plants (lb) 17,000 18,000 12,000 15,000 15,000 Spec, fuel cons. (Ib/hr per h.p. or lb) 0.38 0.34 0.80 0.65 0.40 Gal. per 1,000 st. mile for four engines 1,900 1,500 3,500 2,500 1,700 Pence per mile for fuel 62.6 30 77 55 37.2 Poss. o'haul cost (relative) 100 80 80 90 100 Passenger appeal Fair Fair Good V. good Good Cruise altitude (ft) 28,000 Any 40.000 30,000+ 25,000+
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