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Aviation History
1955
1955 - 1645.PDF
•**• The everyday scene at Idlewild Airport, New York, which handles more long-haul traffic than any other airport in the world. LONG-HAULERS FOR SALE A Review of the Contestants for Air Transporfs Most Important Market NEVER before have the world's buyers of long-haul air-liners been courted so devotedly as they are today. Nofewer than nine suitors are pressing bewildered airlines for a decision. All of them are decidedly attractive and of good family—they have to be to get even a slight consideration. Some are steady, reliable types—old fashioned but of certain temperament;others are full of modern, progressive ideas, if as yet not fully matured; one or two are even a little roguish in character. In considering the prospects of each, the airlines choose thosethey calculate will make the most money. But they do not make their choice simply by drawing a comparison between payloadand range, speed and cost-per-ton-mile characteristics, funda- mental as these are. So many other considerations are involvedin a business as swift-developing as aviation that the decision between one airliner and another is indeed a difficult one tomake. In no other form of commerce is the customer's judge- ment so confused by what he might gain over his competitorsby waiting a little longer. Shall he order contemporary equip- ment now to exploit the mounting traffic, or shall he bide histime in order to invest capital in superior equipment when it materializes? In either course he takes the risk of losing trafficto competitors: the advanced types may succeed in the hands of others, forcing the premature writing-off of a costly new fleet;or they may be delayed, or give endless trouble in service. Feel- ing that the former risk is the lesser, most airlines are contentto stock up with new transports of proven contemporary design, content to let others make the first move in the game of pro-curement. Hence the manufacturer's dilemma: shall he wait for the security of orders before spending millions on series pro-duction, or shall he go ahead and build for the shelf, confident in the soundness of his product? It has become more and more evident in recent months thatthe latter course—involving as it does the heavy expenditure of shareholders' capital in a venture that may be late or, at worst,fail—is the one most likely to pay off. Today it is more of a gamble to wait for orders than it is to risk production in expecta-tion of them. But the manufacturer who steers the middle course by offering early delivery to attract the custom he needs for pro-duction is heading for trouble. However good his record and experience, he is unwise to allow no margin for delays in thedevelopment of a new aircraft which—like a flower—can only reach maturity in a certain time; experienced tending may ac-celerate its growth, but not beyond a certain point. It may take only one week's flying to perfect—say—the stall, or the de-icingsystem: it may just as easily take twenty. Yet manufacturers who, allowing for possible setbacks, offer realistic delivery datesare as likely as not to lose business to the apparently more go- ahead competitors. This is the state of affairs in the long-haul airline business to-day. Recent events have shown how sensitive to timing is the buying policy of world operators, and how the dangling carrotof early delivery—unreal though it may be—induces a stampede of orders. In the last twenty to thirty days more than a hundredbig jet airliners have been ordered for delivery starting early in 1959—the majority for a type which is as yet a wooden mock-up, and all for two aircraft which appear to be astonishingly under-powered. Three years and a few months is a marginal allowance oftime for die development of completely new and complex air- liners for public service. Yet the airlines concerned know allthis: they are in fact prepared for delays, reckoning that even if these do occur the chances of early delivery are still relativelygood. All this does not imply the wisdom of tempting buyers withimpossible production schedules; but it does emphasize the pro- found effect that the prospect of early delivery has on airlines.To them it stands for more than the opportunity for operating new equipment sooner than others—it is also in a way a re-assurance of the manufacturer's competence and ability. Even with aircraft already in production, or just starting to be built,at least six airlines during the past six months appear to have turned down superior products in favour of competitors offeringquicker delivery. These remarks prepare the way for a review of the long-haulairliners on sale today, and the prospects and opportunities for each. To the three great airliner builders of the U.S.A.—Douglas, Lockheed, and Boeing—there are only two challengers, both British—Bristol and de Havilland. The airliners: DouglasDC-7, DC-7C, DC-8; Lockheed 1049G, 1649A; Boeing 707; Bristol Britannia 300 LR; de Havilland Comet 4. The Douglas claim that more people fly by Douglas than byany other make of airliner is likely to be undisputed for many years to come. More than 2,200 DC-3s, DC-4s, DC-6s and DC-7sare estimated to be in service, and Santa Monica's present monthly output of civil DC-6s and DC-7s is 13 per month. The backlogof orders for the 7, 7B and 7C stands at around the 190 mark, and it is a remarkable fact that 100 DC-6Bs still remain to becompleted. Orders for DC-7s are still being steadily placed—for DC-7s are the best transports available for early delivery, except-ing only the directly competitive Lockheed L.1049 series of Super Constellations. Contender for the 1957 airline re-equipment programme, andcompeting directly with the Britannia 300 LR and the Lockheed L.1649A Super Constellation, is the DC-7C Seven Seas. Thisgreat new airliner was designed with one object in view—an ability to fly the Atlantic non-stop every day of the year in eitherdirection. When it comes into service with PanAm in the summer of 1956 it will be the first airliner ever to be capable ofperforming this feat. It represents a bigger advance over the basic DC-7 than that aircraft did over the DC-6 and, although
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