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Aviation History
1956
1956 - 1775.PDF
FLIGHT, 14 December 1956 939 THE HUNGRY AIRLINES... We thus have a proportional basis for estimating the inter-national passenger's average trip length. Before we calculate it we must consider whether the average distance flown by alldomestic passengers throughout the world is the same as for the United States. The U.S.A. is a special case—it is a large countrywith large and widely dispersed centres of population, and for the purpose of this analysis we shall hazard that the average triplength flown by the world's other domestic passengers is less, say 400 miles. (This is a fairly safe estimate to make since, as wehave shown, domestic traffic outside the U.S.A. is only a small proportion of total world domestic traffic. A 400-mile trip lengthalso is the figure for Europe, which accounts for about half the world's domestic traffic outside the U.S.A.) We thus arrive at an average passenger journey length for allworld domestic services of 520 miles. To recapitulate on this ponderous reasoning, we know that theaverage trip length on all world routes, international and domestic, is 560 miles. We have estimated that the figure for domesticroutes is 520 miles. What is the average for passengers on inter- national routes? We know that one-third of world traffic is inter-national and two-thirds is domestic. Thus we arrive at a figure of 640 miles for the average distance flown by internationalpassengers. We are now able to assess the percentage of domestic trafficon medium-haul stages. We have previously shown that the international percentage is 32, and on a proportional basis ofpassenger trip lengths, the corresponding figure for domestic medium-haul flights works out at about 26 per cent. If we are willing to say that this domestic percentage will beabout the same in 1962, we at once have the total (international plus domestic) world medium-haul traffic in that year. In Part Iwe showed that, assuming traffic continues to increase at the same average annual rate as has been observed since 1948—i.e., 17 percent—by 1962 it will be 22,000 million tonne-km. Assuming that the international share remains as one-third of the total, weat once have the international medium-haul traffic in that year —32 per cent of 7,330 million tonne-km, or about 2,340 milliontonne-km. Similarly, domestic medium-haul traffic will be 26 per cent of 14,670 million tonne-km, or about 3,810 million tonne-km.Thus, in 1962, the total world traffic requiring transportation over medium-haul sectors is calculated to be 6,150 milliontonne-km. This is a significant figure, because it gives us the amount ofmedium-haul transport capacity (including, of course, that already ordered) needed in 1962. Assuming a load factor of 60 per cent,it works out as 10,250 million tonne-km. To find the proportion of this medium-haul capacity which isstill to be bought from the manufacturers, we have to subtract from it (a) the capacity represented by orders already placed, and (b) thecapacity represented by surviving existing piston transports. The former (a) is readily obtained from Part 1, Table 1: it amountsto 4,436 million tonne-km. The latter (b) requires careful estimation. We believe that ofall the DC-6A/Bs and Constellation 649/749/1049 in service or being delivered today, the great majority of their survivors in1962 will be at work on medium sectors. The present trend for bigger aircraft to be used on shorter routes (an example is theuse of 049 Constellations and DC-6s on Viscount and Convair 340 sectors) will be accelerated when the big jets come into service,and we shall see most of the aircraft which we at present regard as long-haulers (i.e., 1,500 miles and above) at work as medium-haulers—except perhaps the majority of the DC-7 series and later Super Connies. This will undoubtedly influence strongly the sizeof the market for the new, costly and untried turbine medium- haulers, especially if, as seems possible, big turboprop re-enginingbusiness is in the offing. We shall therefore assume that, of all the Lockheed and Douglas four-engined piston transports nowin service or on order (excluding 049 Constellations and DC-6s, and DC-7-series and the latest Super Constellations, which maywell be mostly on short-haul and long-haul work respectively) the whole of the capacity surviving in 1962 will be offered on medium-haul sectors. This capacity is estimated to be 3,370 tonne-km (see Part 1, Table 2). Thus the proportion of the medium market still to be filledby 1962 is 10,250-(4,436+3,370), or 2,450 million tonne-km. This is 22J per cent of the total 1962 market calculated inPart 1—a reasonable proportion in the light of the results of our medium-haul traffic-researches previously given.In terms of actual aeroplanes, this 2,450 million tonne-km represents something like 150 medium-haul transports still to beordered by the airlines and constructed and delivered by six manu- facturers (eight if we mclude Douglas and Boeing) between nowand 1962. Impression of the Vickers Vanguard (Rolls-Royce Tynes), the only British transport designed from the outset tor the medium market. de Havilland Comet, ordered by B.O.A.C. and Capital. Of all the new medium transports offered, the Comet is the only one with operating experience behind it. Engines are Rolls-Royce Avons. It becomes apparent that there is not enough business to goround, to an extent which can be very broadly measured in the following way.Let us assume that this 2,450 million tonne-km of medium- haul capacity shown to be required in 1962 is shared equally amongthe eight firms—i.e., 306 million tonne-km capacity apiece. This works out, very roughly, as 19 Comet 4 and 4As, 18 Britannias,22 Caravelles, 21 Vanguards, 22 Electras, 14 DC-9s, 14 Boeing 727s, and 14 Convair 880s. With adjustments for the differentdelivery-dates, and for the orders already placed (see Part 1), this means that the theoretical total output of each manufacturerup to the end of 1962 will be: de Havilland, 52 (over five years); Bristol, 60 (six years); Sud-Est, 34 (five years); Vickers, 41 (threeyears); Lockheed, 151 (five years); Douglas, 14 (two years); Boeing, 14 (two years); and Convair 54 (three years).Although this "fair shares for all" distribution is purely hypo- thetical, it does serve to show that the market between now and1962 appears to be incapable of providing really good business
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