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Aviation History
1957
1957 - 0080.PDF
80 FLIGHT Talking Medium-haul Shop at Lockheed and Douglas Part 2: A DAY AT DOUGLAS By J. M. RAMSDEN to go to the transports with the optimum economy over the shortersectors, where in our estimate the bulk of the traffic lay. Ray Vennings warmed to this topic, but did not commit himself to anymention of the DC-9. He was interested in our write-off rate of piston equipment, and asked whether we had thought of theDC-7C as a short-medium transport—because, if we hadn't, Douglas and the airlines certainly had. It showed, he said, verygood, Viscount-class economy over the short stages. Al and Ray then took me to meet Lloyd Aschenbeck, supervisorof the market research at Douglas. Many times in the course of our traffic researches for Flight we have said to one another inso many words: "Oh to be able to see what Douglas have assumed." Their market research is well known for its thoroughness, thoughtantalizingly little is ever published. Here was my opportunity to see something of it at first hand. Lloyd Aschenbeck has a department of 12 people devoted toproviding the Douglas management with a detailed analysis of WEST COAST I LEFT Burbank convinced that the turboprop was the sensiblechoice of propulsion for the world's snort-to-medium-hauloperators. Nothing Douglas might tell me on the following day would, I was sure, persuade me to think otherwise. Of course,the odd medium jets would be sold to people who could afford to run them—but not in any worthwhile quantities. To use the termsof the current American pop-saying: I didn't want to know the medium-jet facts—my turboprop mind was made up. This was no mood in which to approach Douglas. And as itturned out, of course, they soon restored my depleted enthusiasm for the medium jet. Having now heard the medium-haul beliefs of both Douglas andLockheed I am prepared, like the Vicar of Bray, to profess or to apostatize either creed. Unlike the airline president, who is facedwith the problem of investing cool millions in one or the other form of propulsion, I have nothing thereby to lose. My host at Douglas was Al Chop, whose particular assignmentis liaison with the foreign Press. He drove me from Los Feliz Boulevard, where I was staying, to Santa Monica—a 45-minutedrive during which I was again awed by the size of Los Angeles. Like South-east Lancashire, it seems to comprise several Sub-topian townships all merging into one another, with no intervening countryside. I was surprised—as I had been in New York—bythe orderly behaviour of the traffic, which does not move with the Parisian disregard of life and limb that I had anticipated. Iremarked on this later to Al Chop when the traffic politely halted outside the factory to allow us to walk across the main road."You hit a pedestrian on a crossing," he observed, "and Cali- fornia's traffic laws will make you wish you were Bing Crosby—you'll need every nickel you've got." Later I saw that Al had a notice on his car's rear window which said: "Help Stamp OnSports Cars." The white-facaded Douglas plant, which we approached by wayof palm-fringed residential areas, is very much the traditional aircraft factory in appearance. The offices I saw were more busi-nesslike than plush, and the whole place conveyed the sort of respectability that one would expect of Douglas. As at Lockheed,I went through strict but quick security formalities. The first person to whom Al Chop introduced me was RayVennings, whose job is commercial sales. I put to him the con- clusions of our market survey(December 14 issue), which were that the 1962 market didnot appear large enough to make it worthwhile for all theeight firms competing, and, in particular, that the largestshare of die short-to-medium range market seemed likely A prospective partnership which is strongly contesting the turbo- prop's challenge—the Douglas DC-8 and (shaded) the DC-9. STOP-OVER the future air transport market. I got the impression that, whenthe technical feasibility of a new project has been established, market research is the touchstone of any Douglas decision to goahead. The twelve-strong team is on full-time market research, and is not part of, or even an offshoot of, one of the technicaldepartments. Lloyd Aschenbeck's office was crammed with awesome charts,one of which proclaimed the principles of market research. These were: (1) to collect aviation and economic statistics, (2) to analyzethe transportation industry, (3) to forecast air traffic demand, and (4) to determine the amount of equipment needed by individualairlines and by the industry as a whole. With seemly humbleness I briefly ran through Flight's msdium-haul market assumptions and conclusions with the Douglas expert. He listened without comment; and when I had finished he pro-duced, with a flourish, a black leather folder containing Cellophane- covered charts presenting the conclusions of his own medium-haulmarket researches. I suppose I fastened on to it over-delightedly, because he explained that it was not for publication; but I shallnot be giving away any secrets if I note the ways in which it differed in scope from our own analysis. They were: (1) theunfilled market was assessed in terms of DC-9 seat-miles, and not in terms of the total capacities of every medium transport;(2) the year 1965 was examined and not 1962; and (3) the range of bands examined was wider—300 to 1,800 miles compared withthe 500 to 1,500 miles of our analysis. But Lloyd did give me a most enlightening paper he had writtenoutlining his philosophy of market research and offering some con- clusions about the U.S. domestic market; this we hope to examinein a later issue. Five Cardinal Points Whilst I was engrossed with Lloyd Aschenbeck and histantalizing collection of charts, Schuyler Kleinhans—assistant chief engineer at Santa Monica—came beaming into the office.I first met him last June when he called on Flight in the midst of a European DC-8 and DC-9 sales tour (see the July 6 issue),and I had been looking forward very much to seeing him again and on his home ground. Nonetheless it was with some reluct-ance that I tore myself away from Lloyd Aschenbeck: I would have dearly liked to spend many hours talking to him and—hadhe let me!—probing his researches. Schuyler Kleinhans talks in the way his jet airliners will fly—•fast and with great appeal. When I entered his office I was still uncertain just how serious Douglas are about the mediumjet. I emerged—to put it euphemistically—rather less uncertain. I led off by asking whether Douglas were going ahead withthe DC-9. In reply I received an inscrutable smile, and not until later in the interview was I to get a direct answer. Herose from his desk, picked up a piece of chalk, and walked across to the blackboard on his office wall. "The airlines," hebegan, "expect a new transport to be an improvement in five
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