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Aviation History
1957
1957 - 1407.PDF
r 20 September 1957 B.CA.C.'s FUTURE AIRCRAFT POLICY D SPLAYED at the B.O.A.C. Press conference in London lastweek was an illuminating graph (reproduced here) forecast-ing the future growth of B.O.A.C.'s passenger traffic. This anticipates that in 1966-67 B.O.A.C's traffic will be 5,750 millionpas. enger-miles. Thus, during the next ten years, the Corpora- don is planning on a 400 per cent increase in its business. Theremarkable fact emerges that, to achieve this, B.O.A.C. will have to increase their traffic at an average annual rate—every yearfor the next ten years—of no less than 20 per cent. The graph incidentally provides the answer to the suggestionmade in Flight of June 7 that B.O.A.C. have too many aircraft on order. In that issue (page 784) we wrote: — "It seems highly unlikely that B.O.A.C. can count on a 20 per centannual rate of traffic-increase up to 1965; but even assuming this, Britannia 312s and Comet 4s would still have to be disposed of toavoid excess capacity. The conclusion seems clear: B.O.A.C. must be planning on an all-jet fleet of 707s and VC-lOs. And they appear to becounting on big increases in traffic to fill them." Asked at the conference whether his Corporation was planningon the long-term development of long-range turboprop opera- tions, Mr. d'Erlanger replied: "That is the 64,000 dollar question,but I would say yes, we expect to go on with Britannias as far ahead as we can see." It is therefore of interest to examine B.O.A.C.'s graph to seeroughly how the aircraft capacity on order will match up to the traffic. Does the curve appear to indicate that B.O.A.C. are infact planning on an all-jet fleet of 707_s and VC-lOs? It goes further than that: indeed it appears to indicate thatB.O.A.C. are planning on an all-VC-10 fleet. In 1966-67 (the graph estimates) traffic will be 5,750 million passenger-miles. Tocarry this, assuming a passenger load factor of 65 per cent, an aircraft capacity of 8,850 million passenger-miles will berequired. According to our sums, this is exactly the amount of capacityrepresented by the 15 Boeing 707s and the 35 Vickers VC-lOs B.O.A.C. have on order: — Aircraft 35 VC-10 15 707 Seats 120130 Block Speed(m.p.h.) 480480 Utilization (hr) 3,000 3,000 Passenger-MileCapacity (Millions) 6,0502.800 Total: 8,850 But how is this conclusion reconciled with the dotted curve inthe graph marked "Potential of Aircraft on Order," which shows 497 6000 BRIT 102 BRIT 312 DC k x EASTERN x S. \ s. \ \.\ \.\1956-57 1966-67 Above, B.O.A.C.'s forecast of their traffic growth and aircraft capacity. The traffic growth is the sum of the two graphs below. i i ji—i—i—i—r~r WESTERN HEMISPHERE EXISTING ROUTES & EXTENSIONS 1956-57 1966-67 1956-57 I I I I I I I I IEASTERN HEMISPHERE 1966-67 an aircraft capacity (presumably load-factored) in 1966-67 of only4,600 million passenger-miles? The answer can only be that B.O.A.C. are planning to disposeof some Boeing 707s (the graph indicates eight or mne) by that date—presumably in accordance with a policy to concentrate ona one-type British-built jet fleet of VC-lOs. Weight is lent to this assumption by Mr. d'Erlanger's remark (made at his Pressconference) that yickers "have hopes" of making the VC-10 into a transatlantic airliner. BREVITIES CIR GEORGE EDWARDS, managing director of Vickers-*•* Armstrongs (Aircraft), has forecast a total market for about 500 Viscounts. To date, 374 have been ordered. * * * T.C.A. have ordered 33 additional Collins AP-101 autopilotsystems for their Viscounts. * * * Next year K.L.M. is to operate a Polar service from Amster-dam to Biak, Dutch New Guinea, via Tokio with DC-7Cs. * * * The Smith's S.E.P.2 autopilot has been granted CA.A.approval. First deliveries to the U.S. will be in Northeast's Britannias. * * * Isolated cases of flame-outs in the Avon engines of Cometsflying through tropical storms are reported to have occurred on two occasions. It is understood that Rolls-Royce have adoptedan inlet guide-vane setting modification to solve the trouble. * * * A report by C.A.B. to be presented to I.A.T.A. in Madrid onSeptember 24 states there appears to be no economic justification for increased air fares in Europe and America. The Board saysit believes the present excursion rate is essential for tourist trade promotion and is economically sound. New York Idlewild has installed this type of lighting to flood the whole terminal area. It is designed to avoid upward-glare. Pilots of B.W.I.A. have accepted offers of arbitration on a paydispute. The officers claim substantial increases following those given to B.O.A.C. pilots last year. * * * An order for jet thrust reversers for the Convair 880, worthover £3 million, has been placed with the General Electric Com- pany by the Convair Division of General Dynamics Corporation. * * * The newly-merged Italian airline, A.L.A.I., is expected to placean order for a fleet of DC-8s within the next few weeks. As reported earlier (Flight, August 30), the five L.I649As orderedby L.A.I. will probably be sold to the Venezuelan airline, LAV. * * * I.A.T.A. have published the first number of World Air Trans-port Statistics. The major part of the issue is devoted to the operating statistics of individual member airlines as reportedannually by them. The mid-year I.A.T.A. Bulletin is now discontinued. * * * The M.T.C.A. has issued Aeronautical Information ServiceBulletin No. 3301 about N.A.T.O. air exercises over Norway, the Norwegian Sea, English Channel, North Sea, United Kingdom,Ireland and the Bay of Biscay. The exercises take place between September 19 and 29. * * * It is reported that English Electric, who have recently beenadvertising for civil-aircraft design staff, are expected to announce a short- to medium-range STOL civil transport. The companyhas also been seeking engineers with high-speed-flying design experience for civil design work.* * * Sir Roy Dobson, managing director of A. V. Roe, is quotedas having said that "From the fund of knowledge we have in our own company" and with Government support, a Britishsupersonic transport could be flying, though not in operation, by 1961 or 1962. The range would be 1,500 n.m., and speed1,200 m.p.h. (Mach 1.8).
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