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Aviation History
1957
1957 - 1640.PDF
728 FLIGHT Fig.1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Commercial Market Survey 1 The Business Aircraft Market THIS survey, taken of 278 business operators of "heavy"twin-engined aircraft (DC-3s, Lodestars, Conyairs, and soon) is perhaps the most detailed yet carried out in connection with an aeroplane intended solely for business use. Results weretherefore closely guarded secrets for many months. With the Grumman 159 Gulfstream (two Rolls-Royce Dan 529s) now wellalong in the development stage, permission has been granted to publish details of the survey. It is interesting in that a largemajority of those who responded expressed a preference for an aeroplane in the turboprop speed range, rather than for an aero-plane with a higher speed capability which can be realized only with a turbojet engine. American business aviation received a strong impetus in theearly post-war years when numerous DC-3s, Twin Beeches and Lodestars were made available by the armed services. Theseaircraft were eagerly purchased by many companies, anxious not only to gain prestige by owning corporate aeroplanes, but—moreimportant—to speed personnel to conferences more quickly than could be done by other means. In this respect corporate aircraftproved eminently successful and enough executive time was saved to justify abundantly the cost of operating a private aircraft. Company aircraft are today such an accepted part of the nation'stransportation system that over 20,000 are currently in use in the United States, compared with the 1,700 aircraft now in airlineservice in that country. Business flying activities continue to expand each year, prompting the Civil Aeronautics Administra-tion to predict that business flying would nearly double the number of hours being flown by 1965. Taken literally, these figures suggestthat over 10,000* new aircraft will have to be built within the span of seven short years. No manufacturer can afford to overlook such a potentially largemarket and most manufacturers are now actively engaged in the design or construction of aeroplanes for business use. The marketfor business aircraft can thus be expected to be highly competitive, with each manufacturer wishing to be certain that the aircrafthe produces is exactly what the public wants. Grumman Aircraft, whose Mallards, G-21s and Widgeonsalready serve a number of corporations, decided some time ago to re-enter the business aircraft field, a market they had vacatedduring the Korean War to concentrate on military aircraft produc- tion. A team of preliminary design engineers was assigned to full-time work on the project, assisted by the commercial sales office. The latter group supplied most of the background knowledge onthe needs and desires of the business world, while the engineers provided the necessary experience in designing and producing amodem high-speed aircraft. It was soon established that the most promising market for *The Curtis Report predicted 60,000 U.S. business aircraft by 1975. WITH the exceptions of Vickeis and Aviation Traders, British industryhas so far produced no turbine contender for the world's biggest civil aircraft market—that of American business aviation. Today, U.S.executives operate about 20,000 aircraft, of which about 1,000 are "heavy twins." Ten years hence they will be operating perhaps 2,000heavy twins, many of them turboprop or turbojet powered. This repre- sents big aircraft business; and the most favoured American contendersare the Lockheed JetStar, the Grumman Gulfstream and—in a larger class—the Fairchild Friendship. All these aircraft, incidentally, are tobe British-powered. Here is Grumman's assessment of the market, as prepared for them by Donald A. Imgram and Peter E. Viemeister ofViemeister Associates, Inc., the New York firm of technical consultants. Details of the Gulfstream appeared in "Flight's" special Business andTouring Aircraft issue of October 11, 1957. Grumman, with their type of constructional experience and pro-duction facilities, would be that now being served by the "heavy twins." Certain characteristics of the "replacement" aeroplane aregenerally well known to the industry, having been the subject of much discussion during the past decade. In any developmentprogramme, however, numerous questions arise as to customer preferences for such detailed items as desired headroom, runwaylength, cruising speed, seating capacity and so on. These questions can be answered only by obtaining the opinions of a large numberof prospective customers. A market survey was indicated. In the early stages of a design project, aircraft manufacturersimpose rigid security restrictions on the release of information pertaining to the project. Even the existence of a project is some-times denied. This news blackout prevents competitors from find- ing out what projects are under active consideration, and alsoprevents the premature release of data which have not yet been finalized. More than one manufacturer has been embarrassed tofind that after preliminary sketches have received widespread publicity, a design must be radically changed to reflect the resultsof further analysis and wind tunnel studies. For these reasons Grumman chose to utilize the services of Viemeister Associates,Inc., of Lindenhurst, New York, an outside technical service organization, to conduct an anonymous market research study. Early in 1957, detailed questionnaires were forwarded to 278operators of heavy twin-engined executive aircraft. Not all pro- spective customers of the Gulfstream, of course, now operatethis type of aircraft, but the people who do so are the most qualified to state their preferences for a replacement aeroplane. Of the 278 surveys sent out, 124 returns, or 44.6 per cent of theoriginal mailing list, were filled in and returned. This remarkably high percentage return for a comprehensive questionnaire is per-haps indicative .of the enthusiasm with which the business aviation ] world awaits the development of an aeroplane intended solely for jits use. The 124 respondents now operate 241 aeroplanes, of which About 80 per cent of the "heavy twins" in American business use today are Lodestars (on the left is a Learstar 2 conversion) and DC-h. Respective numbers, as supplied by the A.O.PA., are 260 Lodestars (including 14 Learstars) and 478 DC-3s.
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