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Aviation History
1957
1957 - 1775.PDF
6 December 1957 865 transport service from its Corporations and private-enterpriseoperators for the minimum cost to the taxpayer? This is a rhetorical question, since it presupposes that there issome magic formula by which Britain's air transport industry can be made 100 per cent perfect, which there is not. It also pre-supposes that the criterion of perfection is minimum cost to the taxpayer, which it is not—unless the taxpayer is prepared to letthe nation's air commerce go by default. The present mixture of public and private enterprise is an accomplished, immutable fact,and the aim must be to encourage and regulate its elements in the most enlightened manner to achieve the best obtainable over-all results. The Corporations have been cosseted, and rightly so, in order that Britain's international air transport effort couldbe at a maximum. Private enterprise could not, it was considered after the war, have built up from zero an air transport industryworthy of the nation. The independents have played the Cinderella role, as they havebeen required by law to do. But they have achieved some pretty remarkable results from the limited business ("Big Brothers'crumbs," as some of them call it) allowed to them. We shall examine these results in some detail, to see where theindependents stand today, and to assess whether past trends can be projected into the future. The aim is to give a general picture—though this necessarily involves over-simplification, and tends to depict the independents as being united in a battle versus theCorporations. In fact, though they are usually viewed as a whole by those who prescribe policies for British air transport's future,the independents are keenly competitive among themselves, particularly in the contest for trooping contracts, charters, andinclusive tours. But with the general picture as the aim we might first take a look at the independents' combined production effort(in terms of capacity ton-miles flown) since 1952. Fig. 1 shows the independents' share of the total British outputsince 1952. This share was maintained initially, but began to fall during the last year or so. The present trend is for their shareto decrease: in fact, while the total British effort went up last year, the independents' traffic—for the first time in 12 years—did not increase. Statistical evidence of this must be awaited until publication of the B.I.A.T.A. annual report on December 9:but because trooping, which accounts for nearly half the total traffic, is believed to have remained fairly static, and becausepublished M.T.C.A. figures show declines in scheduled traffic, it is fair to guess that the independents' total traffic did not increase.It may, in fact, have decreased. The independents must be the only air transport industry inthe world whose total traffic is not expanding. One hears about the world's declining air transport profit margins, but never of thestatic traffic growth. Another significant point about Fig. 1 is the small proportionof the independents' effort which is scheduled. Though this pro- portion has increased over the years at quite a high rate, it isstill, quite clearly, a minor part of the independents' total business —less than a quarter last year (including inclusive-tours). Thisis significant because the proportion of scheduled activity is a measure of an air transport industry's security and stability. The next step is to break down these outline results and fillin some details. Fig. 2 shows how the independents' business was broken down into its various elements. Clearly, by far themost effort—nearly a half—goes into Government trooping. Next comes charter work, which was the independents' original raisond'etre and which still accounts for about a third of their business. International scheduled services are as high as they appear duelargely to the vehicle-ferry services of Silver City, which generate a lot of tons, and the Colonial coach African Safari services per-formed by Airwork and Hunting-Clan, which generate a lot of miles. Clearly into proportion goes the scale of the independents'U.K. domestic scheduled services, and also their controversial inclusive-tours. Although precise figures must abide publication of theB.I.A.T.A. annual report, Fig. 2 shows also the probable present forward trends of each kind of activity: except for U.K. domesticscheduled services and Continental inclusive tours, most forms of business are either static, if not actually on the decline.. The table on the next page shows the composition of the ^dependents' aircraft fleets. Nearly 60 per cent of first-linerapacity (small single-engined types are omitted) is provided by aircraft designed ten or more years ago. This fact will besharply emphasized by the introduction, in little more than a year's time, of higher British airworthiness standards for oldertransport aeroplanes. These requirerf)nts, and their probable economic effects, were discussed in last week's Flight. Theyn«ed not be repeated here, but they are likely to have a marked "feet on the equipment plans of the independents. So far,jncfependent orders for new aircraft have been few, as noted DeE::ath the table. With traffic tending to be static, and—as wesna i see in a moment—operating revenues apparently not yielding "Hi- n return on expenditures—the financing of new equipment*PF :ars to be dependent upon finding work for the new aircraft £;a The smaller operators may continue to depend upon the INDEPENDENTS' INTERNATIONAL SCHEDULED ROUTE NETWORK International scheduled routes (above) include normal scheduled ser- vices, mainly from the U.K. provinces; Colonial coach services; and vehicle ferries. Below, inclusive-tours have proved an effective method of getting British holidaymakers into the air. I.T. business has almost doubled itself every year since 1952. INDEPENDENTS' 1957-SEASON INCLUSIVE-TOUR SERVICES 10
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