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Aviation History
1958
1958 - 0091.PDF
FLIGHT, 17 January 1958 93 1957—RECORD SAFETY YEAR '"PHE steady post-war downward trend in passenger fatality rates•*• on scheduled air transport, interrupted in recent years, appears from preliminary figures to have been restored in 1957. The ultimate goal for air transport is the complete elimination offatality. In the meanwhile a less ambitious target attracts the attention of statisticians: this is the carriage of each 100 millionpassenger-miles with the loss of only one life. Pre-war rates never approached this level. Fatalities per 100 million passenger-milesdropped from 45 in the late twenties to 15 in the late thirties. Post-war rates have reflected the improvements in aircraft designforced forward in the technological hothouse of world strife. Pas- senger fatality rates (per 100 million passenger miles) fluctuatedbetween four and five until 1948, then fell until a rate of 1.1 was achieved in 1955. Exclusion of accidents resulting fromsabotage and attack would have reduced that year's rate to 0.8— the first year in which the global rate fell below the "target" of onefatality per 100 million passenger-miles. During 1956 the world's airlines failed to equal the previousyear's record. Although in 1957 the downward trend was restored, it is unlikely that the rate of 0.8 fatalities shown for the recordyear of 1955 will be reached. Estimated traffic figures suggest that the 1957 rate will lie between 0.9 and 1.0.These figures cover all scheduled services operated by I.C.A.O. member countries. (The only substantial outsiders are U.S.S.R.and China.) Great variations are seen between this global average and the rates for individual airlines and for separate regions.As regards accident rates for individual airlines, it is often thought that size alone begets safety—i.e., that an airline whichflies a very much greater number of passenger-miles in a given time than another will thereby tend to be the safer. There is nobasis for such a conclusion. Nevertheless, there are some factors, such as frequency of service, which are related both to safety andto size. As flight frequency along a particular route increases so do safety rates improve. (This process is eventually halted byincreased danger of collision.) These higher-frequency "popular routes support a higher volume of traffic and tend to become the 1947 46 49 5O 51 52 On its way to the final assembly building at the Douglas Long Beach plant is the first DC-8. The programme, which calls for roll-out next month and first flight in March, is on schedule. The aircraft will be ready to start its C.A.A. acceptance-trials in 12 months' time, and the first delivery for training flying will be in June 1959. Certification and delivery tor service will begin in October 1959. CIVIL AVIATION hunting grounds of the larger airlines. Only in this indirect waycan the larger airlines' safety records benefit from size alone. The origin of this association of size with safety is probablyexplained by the number of small airlines showing very poor safety records. Further research would reveal a much largernumber of small operators with remarkably good records. These results suggest that for this group of airlines it is necessary toAverage satety rates over a long period of time. It is also widely believed that because landing and take-off appearto be the most hazardous moments of flight, then short-haul air- lines—those with the most landing and take-offs per distance flown—will tend to experience the worst rates. Such airlines do in fact report the greatest number of incidents. Yet it is a curious factthat these same carriers invariably show the safest rates when it comes to major accidents and disasters. This paradox is partlyexplained by the high flight-frequency—and consequently greater degree of route familiarity—normally associated with short-hauloperations. Another factor is that the shorter the duration of flight the less is the probability of en route snags developing. Excep-tional safety records are common to short-haul carriers such as Capital and Colonial (now merged with Eastern) in the U.S., andSilver City and Finnair in Europe. The routes potentially most dangerous in theory are often the safest in practice. No airlineillustrates this better than Garuda Indonesian Airways. Operating short over-water sections, under extremely adverse climatic con-ditions, they have never had a passenger fatality. Wide difference in fatality rates are also experienced as betweenvarious regions. Whereas the global average is tending towards one fatality per 100m passenger-miles, two regions—NorthAmerica and Australasia—have for some years been experiencing annual rates below this figure. European and African airlinesshow average rates respectively of about three and four passenger fatalities. The poorest regional rates are experienced in LatinAmerica, Asia and the Middle East, passenger fatalities per 100m passenger-miles ranging between five and seven. The "safe"regions tend to be climatically favoured—conditions of bad visibility, high humidity or severe turbulence are not general. Suchregions are also economically better suited insofar as large volumes of air traffic on the one hand result in a greater degree of routefamiliarity, and on the other hand permit the provision of superior facilities—aircraft, ground equipment and personnel. Bothincreased familiarity and improved facilities contribute to safety. IRISH TRANSATLANTIC PLANS TRELAND'S dream of her own transatlantic air service reached•*- a stage nearer reality on January 3 when the Minister for Indus- try and Commerce, Mr. Sean Lemass, stated in Dublin that AerLinte Teoranta, the transatlantic airline founded in 1947, is to resume active operations in April this year. Lockheed SuperConstellations are to be leased (on a mileage basis) from Seaboard and Western Airlines, Inc., and will fly into Shannonfrom New York and Boston, continuing from there to Dublin as aircraft re-chartered to Aer Lingus. An all-the-year-round fre-quency of three return flights weekly, with a daily service during the tourist season, is envisaged. Fares will be at tourist level. Aer Linte has always been wholly owned by Aer Rianta, whichis also the majority shareholder in Aer Lingus, but it is believed that Seaboard and Western Airlines will take up a token holdingin the Irish airline. The plan is almost certain to be opposed by both PanAm and T.W.A,, who have been denied FifthFreedom rights at Dublin, principally because the Irish Govern- ment has stood firm against any plan to by-pass Shannon Airport(which represents a £5i million State Investment). The re-chartering arrangement is intended to forestall their objections. Aer Linte Teoranta (Airlines Limited) was founded to operatetransatlantic services and was to commence operations in 1948. Five Lockheed L.749 Constellations had been delivered inSeptember 1947, when the Coalition Government decided to abandon the service. The aircraft were sold to B.O.A.C. inJune 1948, after being chartered to Aer Lingus for the previous nine months. In 1953 the project was reactivated when C.A.B.granted their approval to an agreement between Aer Linte and Seaboard and Western Airlines to operate transatlantic services,but the fact that this was only for a period of two years led to the scheme being abandoned for a second time.
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