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Aviation History
1958
1958 - 0223.PDF
FLIGHT, 21 February 1958 233 National Shares in Air Transport The Latest Available Figures Analysed WITH 1958 already well under way there is somethingacademically remote about an analysis of the fast-movingair transport industry as at the end of 1956. But only now is complete information available (in the form of the I.C.A.O.Digest of Statistics No. 65, Traffic 1947-1956), and still many of the 1956 figures are provisional. By enabling a list to be com-piled of the 70 member-states (excluding U.S.S.R. and Red China) n order of importance, these statistics provide good fuel fornationalist furnaces. For the record, this article sets out to trace the progress of the leading countries in air-transport. Starting in the field of passenger traffic, the United Statescontinues to dominate the world picture despite a gradual post- war fall in its proportion of world traffic from 70 per cent immedi-ately after the war to below 65 per cent in 1956. Americans generally do not interpret this decline as proof either of theirindustry's lack of vigour or of weakness on the part of private enterprise, but as a logical result of the development of civilaviation elsewhere, invariably starting from scratch. Far below the giant U.S., but well ahead of all other countries,lies a cluster of seven leading States comprising, in order of import- ance, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia, Brazil,Netherlands and Mexico. Together, these seven countries con- tribute 23 per cent of the total world passenger traffic, leavingonly 14 per cent to be shared among the 62 other member-States. Since 1950 the second place has been held by the U.K. despitea slackening in Britain's rate of passenger traffic growth after withdrawal of the Comets in 1954. The experience of B.O.A.C.and B.E.A. in 1957 suggests that the U.K. has again drawn away from France. Since 1953, figures for the U.K. include trafficcarried by colonial airlines. If this traffic is excluded, British airlines are seen to carry a steady 4-5 per cent of world traffic. Statistics for the No. 3 country, France, can be easily mis-interpreted. Unlike other countries, traffic carried on non- scheduled flights is not excluded by France from traffic figures.And until the end of 1953 only Air France's traffic was considered. Although the total volume of traffic and the rate of growth forthis country has accordingly been exaggerated in recent years, this rise is more than a statistical fiction, for U.A.T. and T.A.I,have grown rapidly, and Air France has also expanded, apparently at the expense of B.O.A.C. Despite the fact that Canada is the fastest growing of the "bigeight," and although preliminary figures suggest that this country's growth rate in 1957 was faster than its national rivals, there stillremains some distance to cover before Canada's passenger traffic challenges Britain and France. Whereas Canadians look back with pride on a record ofunrivalled progress, Australians have cause for sadness when contemplating the traffic record, their country having toppled froma strong second place immediately after the war to an insecure fifth place in 1956. A fall in wool prices was the main factorin pegging Australian air traffic at about the same level for four years until 1955 when the economy gained momentum and trafficagain started to climb. The economy wavered once again last year, and it is possible that Australia might have fallen to sixthor seventh position in 1957, having been overtaken by Brazil and the Netherlands. Except in 1948, Brazil's post-war passengertraffic has always been slightly ahead of that for the Netherlands. The gap has been narrowing since 1951, and publication of 1957statistics might well show that Brazil has dropped behind. Some way behind Australia, Brazil and the Netherlands comesthe smallest of the big eight, Mexico. This country's air traffic grew steadily until 1953, but has subsequently been stationary.Despite this stagnation, Mexico still shows over twice the passenger traffic of the next country on the list, Belgium. Excluding each of the big eight, no country has ever shownover 500 million passenger-miles in a year, and none contributes more than one per cent of the world passenger total.Looking at the national distribution of _ air-freight, the U.S. again dominates the scene, having since die war accounted forjust over one-half the world total. With one exception, the same names are included among thebig eight as was the case with passenger-traffic. The one exception is Canada, whose place is taken by Colombia. In 1956, the sevencountries following the U.S. are, in order of importance, France, U.K., Australia, the Netherlands, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil.Together these provide for 30 per cent of total world air-freight traffic. The remaining 62 member-States contribute 16 per cent. The post-war experience of Colombia in the freight field mirrorsthat of Australia in the passenger market. Until 1951 this country lay second to the U.S., but a combination of an unsteady economyand improving surface transport has prevented further traffic 80,000 • 2070 pa+ 15 °/o pa tlO°/op.o NETHERLANDS MEXICO BRAZIL 4OO 1947 1948 1949 195O 1951 1952 1953 H954 t955 1956 Post-war distribution of passenger traffic by countries. 1957 growth, Colombia now being relegated to sixth place. France andthe U.K. now fight for second place, French inclusion of non- scheduled traffic making it impossible to decide exactly whichof the two is still in the lead. Australia's position has deteriorated from third place held until 1951 down to fourth place today. TheNetherlands, now lying fifth, only overtook Colombia in 1957. Freight statistics for the last two of the big eight, Mexico andBrazil, are insufficiently reliable to establish more than their approximate position between Colombia on the one hand andCanada and India on the other. Brazil is often quoted erroneously as the world's second main air-freight country, this misconceptionarising through the inclusion of all passenger baggage with freight. Mexican statistics have never been comprehensively reported,and the national total has therefore to be estimated. The national pattern of airmail distribution contrasts stronglywith that for passengers and freight. For instance, the U.S. has steadily increased its share from 50 per cent in 1948 to nearly60 per cent today. Whereas the U.K. and France are close rivals as regards the carriage of passengers and freight, there is a widegap between these two countries in the case of airmail, the U.K. showing a constant nine per cent of the world total as against sixper cent for France. Canada and Australia have always shared fourth and fifth posi-tions, and at present each is responsible for three per cent of the world total. The fastest-growing of the leading countries in thisfield, Canada, overtook its sister-dominion in 1955 after Australian mail traffic had been stagnating for some years.In order of importance, the next two countries are India and Mexico, each accounting for two per cent of the world total.Statistics for Mexico have once again to be estimated by I.C.A.O., but after some years of jostling with India it now appears thatMexico has fallen behind. Last among the big eight is Belgium, most of its mail trafficmoving between the parent country and the Congo. By con- tributing 1.5 per cent to the world total, Belgium brings the shareof the big eight to 72 per cent, leaving the remaining I.C.A.O. members to share 28 per cent. That this last proportion is aboutdouble that shown in the case of passenger and freight traffic for this group of smaller countries is a reflection of the monopoly that mostnational airlines have over the mail supplied by their postal authorities. A brief survey of the whole field shows the U.S. with one-halfto two-thirds of world air traffic, while the U.K. and France share a further 10-15 per cent. Who favours proportional voting inI.C.A.O. and I.A.T.A.? J. C. S.
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