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Aviation History
1960
1960 - 0038.PDF
South American Rentree ... poration who have the final word in whether they operate theservice or not. It must be said at once that, in spite of such gloomy prognostications about the chances of economic success, BOAChave always intended to return to South America as soon as the aircraft capacity became available: and in September 1957Sir Gerard d'Erlanger, their chairman, gave the promise that his airline would return to South America "not later than the springof 1960, provided the financial position makes it possible." Whether resumption of a service with such a difficult economyis justified by the heavy loss recorded in the 1958-59 annual report may be open to question; but before examining in closer detailthe corporation's case for re-starting services within the arbitrary time limit of spring this year it is worth taking a closer look attraffic and capacity over the South Atlantic. Within the keenly contested framework of this route, ninecarriers are already operating: Aerolineas Argentinas, Air France, Alitalia, Iberia, KLM, Lufthansa, Panair do Brasil, SAS andSwissair. BOAC will make the number ten. The tables below show the results for each of these carriers during the "average"months of March and September in 1958, and the table opposite indicates the capacity offered by each carrier in the periodwinter 1959 and their departure and destination points for the actual overwater crossing. And although these figures can beused only to deduce the traffic flows to a first order of accuracy, they do give a working basis for measuring the challenge withwhich the corporation are faced on the South Atlantic route. During the five years in which BOAC have been absent fromSouth America traffic has almost doubled, but the corporation's initial offering with two Comet services a week will not be muchgreater in capacity terms than it was in 1954, when the same routes were flown with DC-4M Argonauts. Comparative results for the years 1958 and 1959 are: — 19S8 1959-60 Seats available over the year 121,750 Passengers carried ... ... ... 61,800Seats available per week ... ... 2,340 Passengers carried per week ... ... 1,180Average load-factor ... ... 50 per cent Average services per week ... ... 21.5Number of carriers ... ... ... 9 I Average seats available per week 2,630 (880 first,1,750 tourist) Average services per week ... ... 23Additional capacity offered over 1958 12 per cent V Number of carriers ... ... ... 10 38 FLIGHT, 8 January 1960 Journey's end is Santiago, reached after a descent from the snowy Andes The figures for winter 1959 include the two services a weekabout to be operated by the corporation and which represent about 8 per cent of the total capacity offered on this route. Whatwill happen in the next two years? It seems almost certain that capacity will be increased at a greater rate than the route hasever previously experienced, but because there will be very little corresponding increase in frequency—a much more successfulgenerator of traffic than rows and rows of empty seats—it seemt fairly certain that as the big jets are introduced already-slenderload factors must remain static or decline. In 1960-61 the South Atlantic line-up of weekly servicescould be: — Aerolineas Argentinas BOAC Air France Alitalia Lufthansa Panair do Brasil Iberia KLM SAS Swissair 2 (Comet 4s) 3 (Comet 4s) ( 2 (Boeing 707s) Air Union 2 (DC-8s) I 2 (Boeing 720s) 2 (DC-8s) 1 (DC-8) 2 (DC-8s) 2 (DC-8s or Convair 600s) 2 (DC-8s or Convair 600s) This represents a total of not far short of 5,000 seats per week—very nearly double the present capacity. Of course, no airline would schedule capacity at a frequency that results in totallyuneconomic load factors, even for reasons of national prestige on an intercontinental route. If traffic cannot be found to fill aboutthe same proportion of seats as at present, the superfluous capacity will be withdrawn or will not be offered. Here it is significantthat three of the Air Union carriers operate over the South Atlantic (it has been suggested that the germ of the Air Union idea sprangfrom discussions between these carriers about this particular route) and it is conceivable that by 1961 Air France, Alitalia andLufthansa may rationalize their services to the extent of operating to South America under the Air Union flag. A similar arrange-ment is possible between SAS and Swissair, who can in any case be expected to adjust their schedules to the best advantage ofboth, and it might be equally logical for BOAC to conclude the pooling agreement for a combined Comet operation already underreview with Aerolineas Argentinas. If these measures alone are insufficient to reduce total capacity to near-economic proportions,the Argentinian and Brazilian governments might well attempt to protect their national carriers' interests by limiting frequenciesthrough adjustment of bilateral agreements. And although faster services may then be offered by the US-jet operators, the smallersize of the Comet should be to BOAC's and AA's competitive advantage in offering more frequent schedules—a familiar argu-ment for the aircraft which applies particularly to the South Atlantic route. BOAC intend to take early advantage of it bystepping up services to three a week as soon as possible. Aerolineas Argentinas, the first jet operators on the SouthAtlantic, claim a very successful initial year with the Comet. They increased their revenue by 85 per cent in the first two months(May and June 1959) of Comet operation and carried 31 per cent SCHEDULED SERVICES (South Atlantic Traffic Flows, March 1958 (Source, ICAO Digest of Statistics) (South Atlantic Traffic Flows, September 19S8 (Source, ICAO Digestof Statistics) WESTBOUND WESTBOUND Carrier Aii" France ... Aerolineas Argentinas Swissair Panair do Brasil Panair do Brasil Iberia Alitalia KLM SAS Lufthansa Monthly totals Seats avail-able 488 396 477 660 950 296 459 605 459 526 5,316 Pass, carried 341 184 264 201 404 72 198 223 223 185 2,295 Pass. load- factor (°0) 70 47 56 30 44 24 43 39 49 27 43 Flights 9 9 9 11 17 4 9 11 9 10 98 Route Dakar-Rio Dakar-Natal Lisbon-Recife Lisbon-Recife Dakar-Rio/Recife Dakar-Rio Sal Island-Rio Lisbon-Recife Lisbon-Recife Dakar-Rio EASTBOUND Air FranceAerolineas Argentinas Swissair Panair do Brasil Panair do Brasil Iberia Alitalia KLM SAS Lufthansa Monthly totals 477 398 477 703 960 296 357 605 408 470 5,151 334 239 305 255 406 33 168 230 228 185 2,383 70 35 71 36 41 28 48 37 56 49 47 9 9 9 13 16 4 7 11 8 9 95 Rio-Dakar Natal-Dakar Recife-Lisbon Recife-Dakar Raio-Dakar Rio-Dakar Rio-Sal Island Recife-Dakar Recife-Lisbon Rio-Dakar Carrier Air France ... Aerolineas Argentinas Swissair Panair do Bra Panair do Bra Iberia Alitalia KLM ... SAS ... Lufthansa il ,il Monthly totals Seats avail- able 780 384 424 477 1,020 370 357 440 459 195 4,906 Pass, carried 306 286 254 265 652 112 236 242 285 106 2.744 Pass. load- factor (%) 52 77 60 56 64 30 67 54 62 54 58 Flights 13 8 8 9 17 5 7 8 9 4 88 Route Dakar-Rio Dakar-Natal Lisbon-Recife Dakar-Recife Lisbon-Recife Dakar-Rio Sal Island-Rio Lisbon-Recife Lisbon-Recife Dakar-Rio EASTBOUND Air France .Aerolineas Argentinas SwissairPanair do Bra Panair do Bra Iberia Alitalia KLM ... SAS ... Lufthansa ,il >il Monthly totals 720 433 424477 1,080 370 357 385 459 195 4,900 416 370 417159 644 128 204 211 173 151 2,873 58 89 8433 60 35 56 52 38 77 58 12 9 89 18 5 7 7 9 4 88 Rio-Dakar Natal-Dakar Recife-Lisbon Recife-Dakar Recife-Lisbon Rio-Las Palmas Rio-Sal IslandRecife-Lisbon Recife-Lisbon Rio-Dakar
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