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Aviation History
1961
1961 - 0194.PDF
"*•, 194 FLIGHT, 10 February \%l AIR COMMERCE . . . BRITISH UNITED'S JET CHALLENGE "The Board shall consider in particular . . . the extent to whichany air transport service proposed would be likely to result in wasteful duplication of, or in material diversion of, traffic from[existing] air transport services."—Civil Aviation Licensing Act. SINCE facts and figures are (or should be) the basis upon whichair transport is regulated, it is as well that the Air Transport Licensing Board should always be clear about the meaning offacts and figures produced by our airlines in support of applica- tions for new routes. As we remarked a year ago (Flight, February5, 1960), Britain's air transport industry has not hitherto been regulated "on the basis of really thorough independent analysisof the issues involved." A recent statement made by British United Airways ran thus:"To carry out our plans in their entirety would involve no more than 20 per cent of the corporations' traffic growth for the years1961-65." The plans to which BUA were referring are recent applications to operate an extensive new network of scheduledservices in Europe and Africa—linked with which is a £20 million offer to buy five D.H. Tridents and four Vickers VClOs, thoughBritannias and Viscounts would be operated at first. In a note in Flight for January 27, page 128, it was suggestedthat the diversion would in fact involve not 20 per cent, but more like a half of the corporation's traffic growth for the years 1961-65.This is challenged by British United in a letter from their executive director, Mr F. A. Laker, which appears on page 189 of this issue.It is therefore necessary for the basis of our suggestion to be sub- Proposed BUA Services London (Gatwick) to:— Paris ... 3enoa Frankfurt ... Rome . Amsterdam ... Milan Zurich. Munich... Dusseldorf Dublin Biarritz ... Madeira Naples Athens Basle ... Nice ... . Tarbes Palma ... Paralleling BEA Stage distance, statute miles 215 630 218 406 908 231 580 576 489 588 315 311279 2,028 722 540 1,750 1.012 1,150 1,500 446 646 700 560 834 International Trips per year both ways 1.460 730 730 312 416 730 312 208 312 312 312 312 1.460 78 36 88 130 88 52 60 88 300 72 180 208 Services Annual seat mileage4' x 1,000,000 15.7 23 7.95 6.34 18.9 8.4 9.05 6.07.64 9.18 4.95 4.86 20.4 7.92 1.3 2.38 11.4 4.45 3.0 4.5 1.96 9.7 2.52 5.04 8.68 . . . Paralleling BEA Domestic Services Glasgow Manchester Edinburgh Belfast... 360 152 360 320 1,460 396 1,460 730 26.33.01 26.3 11.7 Total paralleling BEA (round figures): 270m . Paralleling BOAC International Services Luxor ... Lagos .. Johannesburg Khartoum 2.370 3.109 5,650 3,073 12 104 104 104 1.4 32.3 58.8 32.0 Total paralleling BOAC (round figures): 125m Grand total paralleling both corporations (round figures) 395m * Assuming the use of 50-seat Viscounts and 100-seat Britannias until delivery of Tridents and VC10s, which could not be until 1964 (see text). stantiated—not to score off BUA, whose calculations appear tohave been based on assumptions rather ditierent from those suggested by the wording of their statement, but to provide anexample of how necessary it is for the Air Transport Licensing Board to make an independent analysis of the figures thatapplicants will always be producing in support of their claims. In the following exercise it is not the figures that matter so muchas the principle that the new Board must always assess for itself —regardless of what figures BUA, Cunard Eagle, BOAC, BEA oranyone else produces—the implications of every new route application. The basis of the Flight calculation was the estimated seat-mileage represented by the BUA applications, as shown in the accompanying table. Total proposed seat-mileage in the first year(say 1961-62) is seen to be 395m. Assuming a passenger load factor of 60 per cent, then total annual passenger-mileage yieldedby the applications if carried out in their entirety would be 237m. Thus total BUA passenger-mileage (assuming no annual trafficincreases, though these are in fact applied for in certain of the applications) from 1961-62 to 1964-65 would be 948m. Assuming that in the fifth year, 1965-66, Tridents and VClOsare operated, and assuming also a seat capacity of 100 for the Trident and 150 for the VC10, then total seat-mileage in the year1965-66 yielded by the applications would be 727m or, at a 60 per cent load factor, 436m passenger-miles. This produces a total yield from the proposed BUA routes forthe years 1961-62 to 1965-66 of 1,384m—the figure which, it might reasonably be interpreted from the BUA statement, repre-sents no more than 20 per cent of the corporations' traffic growth for the years 1961-65. In fact, the figure is 53 per cent. BEA's passenger-mileage in1961-62 will be about 1,500m, rising at 14 per cent per year (BUA's assumption) to 2,500m in 1965-66—a traffic growth of1,000m passenger-miles. Likewise, BOAC's passenger-mileage in 1961-62 will be 2,380m passenger-miles, rising to 4,000m in1965-66—a traffic growth of 1,620m. Thus the total combined traffic growth of the two corporations in the period under review-would be 2,620m passenger-miles. The upshot of all these figures is that BUA's plans, if carriedout "in their entirety," would involve 53 per cent, and not 20 per cent, of the corporations' traffic growth.It is of interest to see what percentage of BEA's growth the BUA plans would involve. Mr Laker gives a figure of 30.9 percent; but total BUA passenger-mileage paralleling BEA routes would be 972m—which is no less than 97 per cent of BEA'sgrowth in the period concerned. British United says 20 per cent, we say 53 per cent. BritishUnited says 30 per cent, we say 97 per cenr. What does the Air Transport Licensing Board say? J. M. R. —AND CAN THEY BREAK THE POOL BARRIER ? ALTHOUGH British United are engaged with BOAC in a• pool on the African routes, the independent will have to marshal strong anti-pool arguments if its new applications forlicences to operate DC-6Cs or Britannias, and later VClOs, from Gatwick to Tokyo and Singapore are to be successful. This is be-cause, as explained in Flight for June 3, 1960 (page 773), there is a stipulation in the Air-India/Qantas/BOAC pool agreement whichwould render the tripartite agreement invalid if a second British carrier were to be designated on the routes covered by the pool—which in fact include the routes now being applied for by BUA The new BUA applications, out last week, call for a twice-weekly service London Gatwick - Istanbul - Teheran - Karachi - Delhi - Calcutta - Bangkok - Singapore, to be extended once aweek to Hong Kong and Tokyo. Fares would be IATA, except for "Skycoach" class to Singapore and Hong Kong, which wouldbe 18 per cent below the equivalent IATA economy fare. Tangible prospects of the forthcoming move from London Airport North's shantytown are seen here rising from the central area, where thi picture of the new long-haul terminal was taken last week. BOAC are hoping to transfer during the autumn, followed by others in 1961
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