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Aviation History
1961
1961 - 1581.PDF
FLIGHT, 685 2 November 1961 Originally F-BJTD of Air France, this Caravelle III of Air Liban, OD-ADY, is one of two bought for the Lebanese carrier by Air France. These two operate a twice-weekly Beirut - Rome - Paris ser- vice, and other routes in the Middle East radiating from Beirut AIR COMMERCE. Excess Capacity in Europe? MONTHLY and quarterly statistics showing the trends inEuropean air transport are compiled by the Air ResearchBureau, but these short-term reviews do not give any clear indication of the long-term trends. Now, however, the "otherARB" have published figures showing the development of air traffic in Europe over the past five years.* The statistics cover the 13 European carriers which are membersof the ARB: Aer Lingus, Air France, Alitalia, BEA, BO AC, DLH, Finnair, Iberia, Icelandair, KLM, Sabena, SAS and Swissair. Table I: General Development of Intra-European Passenger Traffic—ARB Carriers Table 3: ARB Carriers—Intra-European Traffic Year 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 seat-miles (million) 3,700 4,325 4,950 5,450 6,500 (per cent) 17 15 10 19 (million) 2.200 2,550 2,725 3,125 3,700 (per cent) 16 7 14 19 (per cent) 59.9 59.4 55.4 57.5 57.3 The year 1960 can be regarded as successful from the point ofview of passenger traffic growth, but the main problem is excess capacity. The position has never really recovered from the trafficrecession of 1958, largely due to the wider use of large obsolescent piston equipment (e.g. DC-6Bs and DC-7Cs) and jets. Furthersubstantial re-equipment with jets is taking place this year, and to quote from the ARB report: "The outlook for an improvement inthe passenger load factor in the immediate future is not favourable." In 1960 jets provided 24 per cent of the total seat-miles produced onintra-European routes. Table 2: Comparison Between Intra-European Traffic Growth and Development in Other Regions (1956 _ 100) (based on passenger-miles) ARB carriers. Intra-European European dom- esticIntercontinental and overseas JS carriers: International Domestic-trunk LocalRemaining world: 1956 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1957 116 120 121 1 12 1 13 1 18 113 1958 124 127 136 1 17 1 13 130 127 1959 142 145 152 135 130 162 143 I960 169 175 189 159 135 180 183 Average an- nual increase (per cent) 14 15 17 12 8 15 16 The European domestic figures above do not include statisticsfor non-ARB carriers, such as the British independents, Air Inter, Linjuflyg, etc. European domestic traffic would probably if thesecarriers were added have shown the highest rate of development of all the categories shown above. The outstanding fact emergingfrom the above table is the growth-rate of the intercontinental and overseas operations of ARB carriers. This averaged 17 per cent.Remarkable, too, is the relatively small average annual growth-rate of US domestic traffic; according to the ARB, this indicates therelative "maturity" of the US market while the European market is still in the "development" stage. The average revenue rate has tended to reduce on intra-Europeanroutes, largely due to the extension of special fares—off-peak, night and excursion fares and inclusive tour rebates. This has been offsetto a degree by the expansion of first-class traffic over the five years •—from 7.7 per cent to 9.2 per cent of the total. The effect of thefurther expansion of economy fares on intercontinental routes is evident, as the revenue rate has fallen by 7 per cent in the past twoyears to 3.75 cents per passenger-kilometre, and by an average of 6.2 per cent over the five-year period. The average intercontinentalrevenue rate is now 15 per cent below the intra-European rate, which stands at 4.41—which in turn is 35 per cent higher than thedomestic average of 2.90 cents. • Traffic and Operating Data, ARB Carriers 1956-1960. Air Research Bureau, 67 Rue de la Loi, Brussels. Price not quoted. Year 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 Average stage dis- tance per flight (miles) 320 328 330 333 335 Passenger trip length (miles) 4M 435 420 430 427 "Hops" per passenger I.I 1 1.13 1.12 1.17 1.16 The passenger trip length and number of hops per passengerare calculated by dividing total passenger-kilometres and total sector passengers, respectively, by the number of "point-to-point"passengers. Since the number of passengers is the total number of flight coupons issued and passengers are often issued with morethan one flight coupon for a journey, the figures for passenger trip length and hops per passenger shown above are probably on theconservative side. Although the increase in the average stage distance per flight in1960 was very small, over the five-year period the trend continues upwards; this in general should, if the trend continues, benefitoperating costs. The continued growth of passenger traffic should eliminate some intermediate stops on multi-sector routes, and fur-thermore if these stops are minimized the high speed of jet aircraft could be more fully exploited. The average number of seats per aircraft increased in 1960 by5.6 to 58.9 whereas the figure for 1956 was 48.3. Average speed per aircraft hour has increased from the 1956 figure of 314km/hr(195 m.p.h.) to 367km/hr (230 m.p.h.) in I960. Jet aircraft have been introduced progressively during 1960; these average between72 and 84 seats each, and to a slightly lesser extent the introduction of Super Constellation and DC-7 equipment accounts for the largeincrease in seating. The increase in average speed of only 13 m.p.h. in 1960 would appear to be low considering that jet aircraftcarried 24 per cent of the passenger traffic as against 4 per cent in the previous year. As the jets only flew 18 per cent of the totaldistance flown, however, the major portion was still flown by piston and turboprop equipment. The average speed should risein the next few years. Table 4: Percentage Distr Year 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 Domestic 11.8 1 1.9 11.4 11.6 1 1.4 bution of ARB Carriers' Traffic (passenger-miles) European 30.4 29.7 28.8 29.2 28.4 and overseas 57.8 58.4 59.8 59.2 60.2 Total 100 100 100 100 100 In the above table "intercontinental" includes not only long-haul traffic but regional traffic carried outside Europe. The propor- tion of intercontinental and overseas traffic has increased, butvariations between the three categories are not large. Generally the rate of growth of freight traffic has been slow,although in 1959 and 1960 the increase was large by comparison —19 per cent in each case. Over the five-year period from 1956to 1960 freight traffic has expanded at the same rate as passenger traffic. The smaller cargo capacity available on jet aircraft isevident from the small increase of only 4 per cent, whilst the opera- tion of all-freight services has increased by over 50 per cent duringthe year. In 1960 some 24 per cent of all-freight traffic was carried on freighter aircraft compared with 19 per cent in the previous year,the expansion during the year therefore being largely on all-freight services. The ARB forecasts that passenger-miles will increase in 1961by 14 per cent to 4,250m, but that capacity seat-miles will increase by "at least" 20 per cent. The report confirms present-day fearsby saying that "in 1961 the passenger load factor will fall by almost three percentage points to around 54.5 per cent."
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