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Aviation History
1962
1962 - 0201.PDF
[LIGHT International, 8 February 1962 203 British carrier for this route, notwithstanding BEA's close working partnership with TAP; and it remains to be seen whether the Portuguese authorities will grant BUA the necessary traffic rights. They can, in fact, hardly refuse—however much TAP may wish to continue working alongside BEA—when Britain has designated British United for this route. A BRAKE ON EXPENDITURE UNDER the above heading appears an account in BOA C News of how BOAC tackled a big Comet braking problem. This was costing the corporation nearly £200,000 a year, or £10 per landing. BOAC's Comet brakes have a big job to do since the aircraft have no thrust reversers; and this heat was breaking up the friction pads in the brakes. Cooling fans in the axles were fitted and a new type of segmented brake pad used after seven different types had been tested. This brought the £10 down to £7 9s 4d, but this was still not low enough. Attention was next turned to the riveting of the pad to the stators; then the maintenance scheme was reviewed, with Dunlop approval, to avoid the necessity of changing all five stators whenever a defect was found on one. Costs came down to £2 17s—and the overall saving achieved was in the region of £150,000 a year. The BOAC engineers concerned were Messrs J. Finnimore, A. J. Sanderson, C. B. Redgate and D. G. Yeomans. Vertol 107 Certificated The Boeing Vertol 107 received its FAA type certificate on January 26. LCC Wants a Monorail Before a final decision is made to build a heliport in Central London, says the London County Council, the possibility of a monorail link should be studied. Heralds To Canada Today, February 8, the first of two Hand- ley Page Heralds for Nordair is due to be delivered. The second will follow on February 22. Nonstop to Cairo On February 28 BOAC will introduce a weekly nonstop Comet 4 flight between London and Cairo in addition to the present four stopping services. Atlantic ITX? The Association of British Travel Agents has placed before IATA a proposal for a £70 ITX return fare as the basis of 16-day inclusive-tour holidays in the USA. Swissair 990 Compensation Aviation Daily reports that General Dynamics has agreed to pay Swissair $1.5m per aircraft if Convair 990 performance is not up to guarantee after modification. National-Continental Merger Off A surprise announcement last week stated that the proposed merger between National Air lines and Continental Air Lines will not now take place. No Name for Washington Washington International may be the name of the US capital's new airport, "Dulles" probably being applied only to the terminal building. No decision has been made. British Railways v. BEA The railways' appeal against BEA's three-guinea night fares to Scotland and Northern Ireland will take place on February 21 at 10 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1, starting at 10.30 a.m. Mauritania and Gabon Join 1CAO The Islamic Republic of Mauritania and the Gabon Republic will become members of ICAO on February 12 and 17 respectively, bringing membership ofICAOto92. Too Many BOAC Aircraft? (continued from page w) capacity of this aeroplane, which comes into service almost an aircraft generation behind the 707, should be less than that of the American jet. Perhaps one reason for this derating of the Super VClO's payload is BOAC's intention to use the aircraft on eastern routes, with the payload limitations imposed by such places as Kuala Lumpur, Colombo, Singapore, and so on. If this is so it might well be argued that BOAC would be better served with more Standard VClOs and fewer Super VClOs. A figure of 20 tons for the 707 and 19.5 for the Super VClOisalike-with-likecomparison, assuming deployment of each type on eastern as well as western routes, and notwithstanding the superior field performance of the Super VC10 .which was designed for the best of both Commonwealth and North Atlantic payload-range worlds. For the purpose of this assessment, then, a payload of 21 tons has been assumed. Block speeds, which have a marked effect on capacity estimates, are as calculated by BOAC. Manufacturer's figures actually suggest a cruising speed for the VC10 about 18 m.p.h. more than that of the 707; nevertheless, the BOAC figures have been used. The VC10 may or may not prove faster in practice than the 707; but it is noteworthy that BOAC's block speeds (chock to chock) are by no means on the high side. But again, they have not been "loaded" by bringing them more into line with the higher level that is generally typical of big jet operations (even on networks having a shorter stage length than BOAC's 1,300 mile average). BOAC'» Capacity: 1967-68 Boeing 707 VCIO Super VCIO No 18 12 30 Payload short tons 20 15 21 Block speed (m.p.h.) •440 430 440 Utilization (hr) 3,100 3,600 3,000 To Capacity c.t.m.jyr (million) 490 280 830 al: 1,600 Will traffic match this capacity? This is the crucial question. But the question actually needs phrasing more precisely: will traffic adequate to make BOAC profitable match this capacity? Traffic forecasting is a notoriously fallible occupation, but Sir Basil's carefully calculated guess is that passenger-miles will increase at a rate of between 13 and 14 per cent up to 1965, tapering off to about 7 per cent in 1970. Factoring this up a little to take account of increased deadload business, it appears that BOAC's total l.t.m., scheduled and charter, will be about 850m in 1967-68. This would achieve an overall load factor of 53 per cent. It is most unlikely, especially with deadload rates falling, that this would represent break-even on the operating account (current overall break-even load factor is around 55-56 per cent). To cover interest charges as well, so as to make the overall profit that BOAC must surely be achieving six years hence (and assuming that the associated companies are profitable), a load factor nearer to 60 per cent would seem to be the desired target. To carry 850m l.t.m. at this load factor a capacity of 1,420m c.t.m. would be required. This is 180m c.t.m. less than will be available. Put another way, an excess capacity will be available in 1967-68 equivalent to seven Super VClOs (or, more pertinently perhaps, to about seven 707s). The previous Flight International estimate (January 11 issue) suggested a surplus equivalent to ten Super VClOs in 1966-67. It is also reasonable to expect that BOAC is aiming to wipe out its mounting accumulated deficit, which in the current year is about £25m. The interest charges on this alone will require a point or two of load factor to clear, and the load factor of 60 per cent just suggested—even though one point becomes more valuable as the volume of business increases—might well be on the light side. It could be that BOAC, in common with the airline industry as a whole, is cutting its cloth to lower load factors. The argument might run thus: "Over-capacity is so prevalent that we have to over-schedule in order to remain competitive. This alleged surplus capacity is necessary in order to remain competitive." This may well be so; but the argument must not be allowed to obscure the fact that over-capacity leads airlines along the road to ruin. There will be no problem if, during the sixties, with luck and hard selling, BOAC's traffic exceeds the estimates—even though these are probably optimistic estimates—assumed in this analysis. As we said in presenting BOAC's side of the story in Flight International for January 25, the achievement of a really substantial traffic growth is BOAC's biggest challenge in the years ahead.
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