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Aviation History
1962
1962 - 0301.PDF
FLIGHT International, 22 February 1962 Missiles and Spaceflight The Cost of A DETAILED analysis of the cost of United States space projects was given in London last week by Mr Addison M. Rothrock, associate director, Office of Plans and Program Evaluation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Presented at a one-day symposium on the economics of astronautics which was organized jointly by the Royal Aeronautical Society and the British Interplanetary Society on February 13, Mr Rothrock's paper emphasized the massive impact on the total budget of the accelerated Apollo programme to place a manned spacecraft on the Moon by 1970; and disclosed that NASA money for a fourth joint US/UK satellite has been allocated in the 1963 fiscal year budget. Of the total United States expenditures in space (Mr Rothrock TABLE I: NASA ANNUAL BUDGETS IN $1,000,000 Program me Space sciences Applications spacecraft Manned spaceflight Tracking and data reception Vehicle research and technology Total* FY 1961 260 58 423 73 152 966 FY 1962 395 107 806 125 239 1,672 FY 1963* 570 140 2,507 213 513 3,943 •Includes 1962 supplemental said), about two-thirds are for the NASA programme. Most of the remainder is under the jurisdiction of the Department of Defense, with sizeable programmes also conducted by the Atomic Energy Commission (jointly with NASA for the development of nuclear propulsion and power-generating systems) and by the Department of Commerce in connection with the operation of meteorological spacecraft systems. There are various other corollary programmes. The spaceflight systems used in the conduct of these programmes consist of spacecraft payload, spacecraft, launch vehicle, ground- based launch faculties, and ground-based tracking and communica tion systems. Each part of this system must be developed, the hardware fabricated and placed in operation, and then maintained over a given useful life. In addition, continuous research must be conducted to improve the different parts of the system so that activities in space can be extended and so that the operations will become more efficient. The NASA programme can be divided into five parts: scientific investigations in space, development of applications spacecraft (meteorology, communications, navigation, etc), development and operation of manned spaceflight systems, construction and opera tion of ground system for spacecraft launchings and for spacecraft tracking and data acquisition, and flight vehicle research and technology. To conduct this programme NASA operates nine major stations, employing 20,000 persons in 1961, 25,000 in 1962 and an estimated 30,000 in 1963. About 15 per cent of the NASA programme is currently con ducted in-house, mostly in the field of flight vehicle research and technology. The remaining 85 per cent of the programme is conducted by industries, universities and non-profit institutions under contract or grants. The NASA budgets for fiscal years 1961, 1962, and as recom mended by the President for 1963 are shown in Table 1. At the 1963 level 1 estimate the expenditure will be about $20,000 per year for each of some 20,000 persons assigned to the in-house part of the programme, and about $350,000 for each of some 10,000 persons assigned to monitor the contract and grants programme. Overall, the data reflect the increased importance placed on the space programme by the Government of the United States. Table 1 shows that space sciences and applications programmes will more than double in the three-year period. The manned spaceflight Programme will increase six-fold, and the tracking and data reception and vehicle research and technology programmes about threefold. 303 Spaceflight There is considerable choice that can be made in the amount of money spent in the fields of space sciences and applications space craft and, as a result, in the amounts spent in that part of tracking and data acquisition, and vehicle research and technology, that support these programmes. With manned spaceflight—because of the magnitude of the effort required and, probably more importantly, because of the international aspects of manned spaceflight—there is not so much choice. From this very brief picture of the overall costs of the NASA programme we will examine the space sciences programme in more detail. We can break the programme into five parts, as shown in Table 2. The launch-vehicle development listed in Table 2 covers the development of the launch vehicle to the point where it is considered reasonably reliable. Beyond this point the cost of the launch vehicle is included in the appropriate part of the science programme. The definition of "reasonably reliable" is arbitrary and generally covers the cost through about ten launchings. It also covers certain product-improvement costs. It is interesting to note that the costs on Scout and Centaur do not show much variation in the three-year period and are roughly proportional to the overall size of the vehicles. The development costs for Delta indicate this is now a reliable vehicle. Its record of operation substantiates this statement. The sounding-rocket programme is increasing at a relatively low rate. The programme consists of about 100 shots a year. This programme can be maintained at a choice of levels down to a few shots a year. The threefold increase in the scientific-satellite and lunar and planetary programmes over the three-year period repre sents an increase in the size and operational flexibility of the space craft rather than an increase in the number of launchings. The larger spacecraft carry either a greater number of experiments or permit a larger range of measurements to be made with a single experiment. This trend towards larger spacecraft with greater operationally flexibility has been quite marked as the programmes have increased in scope and magnitude. By choosing smaller spacecraft and by conducting the operations in an Earth orbit rather than including solar orbits, a programme in TABLE 2: SPACE SCIENCES ANNUAL BUDGETS IN $1,000,000 Science Programmes: Sounding rockets Scientific satellites Lunar and planetary exploration Total programmes Lflunch-Veh/c/e Development: Scout Delta Centaur Total launch vehicle develop ment Total Construction of facilities Totals FY 1961 12.3 S4.4 91.0 157.7 9.7 10.5 64.7 84.9 242.6 17.0 259.6 FY 1962 14.3 117.6 170.0 301.9 8.2 2.9 65.8 76.9 378.8 17.7 396.5 FY 1963 19.2 175.2 273.6 468.0 8.9 0.3 75.7 84.9 552.9 16.6 569.5 space sciences can be conducted at an appreciably lower cost than that presented in Table 2. Using conventional liquid propellants and present state-of-the-art design, a three-stage launch vehicle of 30 times the mass of the spacecraft is required to launch the space craft into a 300-mile Earth orbit. To launch the spacecraft into a solar-orbit trajectory a launch vehicle of about four times this size— 120 times the spacecraft mass—is required. Further to examine the costs of the NASA programme and to illustrate the points just made, the annual expenditures for the scientific satellite programme over the three-year period are further
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