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Aviation History
1963
1963 - 1818.PDF
FLIGHT International, 10 October 1963 627 BRITISH AVIATION: THE NEXT DECADE Ten Points from the Cranfield Society Symposium THE present annual budgetary control of projects of national importance results in insufficient continuity in financing, and hence inadequate forward planning of the projects themselves. This is inefficient. It leads to deficient and delayed products and restricts the industry's rate of technical development. In addition it tends, in some circumstances, to create a conflict between company financial motivations and national economic or social interests. . . ." So begins the report of Working Group A of the Cranfield Society's 1963 Symposium, one of seven such group reports which are included in the full proceedings of the Symposium. As indicated in our preliminary report of the meeting (September 19 issue), the themeiof the symposium was military and civil air transport in 1973, and the planning and management of resources for optimum results. The meeting divided into seven working groups to discuss particular aspects of this theme, and the opening paragraph above illustrates the type of problem tackled. Fifth in an annual series under the general heading of "Key Problems in Aeronautics," this year's symposium and its subject evolved out of ideas developed during similar meetings in the two preceding years. It was assumed as a starting point that, ten years from now, there will be a continuing growth of new vehicles and requirements for the purpose of (a) military airtransport—mainly to support long distance "police action'' and tactical battles and (b) air transport as a civilizing influence all over the world (a conservative estimate of average growth over the period is eight per cent per annum in staple passenger traffic). The following ten points are among the main conclusions which emerged. 1. Aircraft to meet the assumed requirements will not only demand the maintenance of at least the present level of research and development, but must also conserve and develop the existing engineering and management teams which are so difficult to build up. Such teams must hfclude exponents of the best modern tech niques in management, design, commerce and production. 2. Aircraft are nationally important exports because a large part of their price represents the type of manpower in which we can excel at moderate cost. 3. In order to conserve and develop manpower and other resources, planning and finance must be appropriate to the periods and methods necessary to conceive, develop and build reliable production aircraft in economic numbers. Existing annual budget ing and detailed Treasury control are not well suited for this purpose. 4. To minimize interference with the existing civil service machinery and ensure continuity of purpose and control, an early partnership is needed at the highest executive level between Govern ment and industry to design and execute long-term plans for aviation. Planning periods from three to ten years have been suggested; there are precedents both here and overseas for quinquennial budgeting. 5. Integrated with the work of such a planning authority would be a permanent organization for study and research into all forms of transport systems. In particular, a small forecasting unit can be readily set up at a modest annual cost to supplement and co ordinate individual forecasting efforts on a national basis. 6. Transport aircraft must be designed as part of overall transport systems which take into account the total community benefit in relation to the total community burden or price. For example, present systems of fare control tend to favour increases of airspeed rather than to improve total journey time or passenger convenience. At the moment high airspeeds do not promote optimum use of the investment in airports and air traffic control. Lower approach speeds could speed up the rate of aircraft move ments—thus increasing airport utilization and avoiding an overload of traffic control capabilities. 7. In other countries such as the USA, USSR and Germany, air transport is recognized as a vital part of the overall national economy "-so that, if cost/efficiency is satisfactory, air transport maybe able to justify direct or indirect subsidy by reference to the total social benefit. This is one way of preventing the comparative isolation of some of our northern cities, and would lead to a strong home market as a firm basis for export. 8. The airlines, the Government and the manufacturing industry are all involved in increased use of modern techniques of management and control so as to improve detailed design and reliability, shorten time for production and reduce first cost and operating costs. 9. Success in many of these tasks depends on introducing more qualified scientists, managers and engineers to the realm of govern ment and industry policy-making. In turn, this involves a raising of the calibre of managers, engineers and designers, some hard work on improving the "image" of engineering in the schools and a vital need for education geared to fast-changing technology. 10. There is already a requirement for re-education of engineers, managers and designers at several points in their careers. Industry must learn how to do this and take some lessons from the Services. The full proceedings of the symposium, which have now been published, are prefaced by a report made by Sir Harold Roxbee Cox at the end of the meeting. Also included are the working papers on which the conference was based, together with the individual reports of the seven working group chairmen. Each group used the same working papers but was free to develop its own agenda and methods. Despite this separation, many similar ideas emerged from several groups, for example the need for long- term planning in the national interest. The working group chairmen at the Cranfield symposium comprised Mr Ivor Bowen, council-member of the Air League; Mr Peter W. Brooks, assistant managing director of Beagle Air craft; Dr Denis A. Layne, chief of personnel services, British Air craft Corporation; Mr A. J. Lucking, editor of Wings over West minster; M Raymond Peladan, assistant to the director of the Institut du Transport Aerien; Mr Alan Vines, executive chairman of Fairey Engineering; and Mr K. G. Wilkinson, assistant chief engineer of British European Airways. Specific aspects examined by individual groups included the planning process and assessment of requirements and resources; factors outside and inside the aviation industry which affect its efficiency; the marketing of aviation; the creation and operation of a joint industry/Government forecasting unit; the wider use of air transport as a factor in world development; and the various facets of project management. Included in the conference working papers was the table of major cancelled aircraft and missile projects published originally in Flight International of June 27,1963. One of the groups decided to analyse this list in an attempt to deduce general lessons for the future. The cancellations had cost £35.3m for transport aircraft, £42.7m for operational aircraft and £16J.4m for missiles. Of the major projects (those involving more than £2m each) the group found one project (£2m) where the initial concept was wrong; four projects (£37m) started as insurance policies and cancelled in favour of rival projects; six projects (£82m) cancelled after Government policy changes; and four projects (£104m) overtaken by events but not cancelled promptly enough. It was deduced that the biggest losses were caused by failure to cancel projects which became obsolete before they could be com pleted. "Contractors had a strong incentive to let projects continue after sufficient data had accumulated to reach a decision to cancel, and MoA supervision has proved technically inadequate. Further wasted effort arose because users' operational needs were often incorrectly assessed. The number of policy changes would have been reduced if planning had been done on a ten-year basis, which is the time span of many projects." One of the other groups studied, among other things, the British industry's ability to compete with aviation industries overseas. They examined criticisms of British industry which included (a) the long period required for a project to pass from design into service, (b) in accuracy of initial cost estimates, (c) over-emphasis on performance while paying insufficient attention to reliability, (d) low standard of detail design, (e) tendency to give insufficient attention to customer requirements, and (f) the fact that the British industry enjoys lower labour rates than in the USA, yet the product cost is similar.
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