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Aviation History
1963
1963 - 2027.PDF
FLIGHT International, 21 November 1963 829 The Tunnel Seen from the Air By D. A. WHY BROW The Channel Tunnel Report published In September prompted many requests for comments from British United Air Ferries. This company's views on the report are obviously of importance, and are set out in this article by BUAF's director and general manager. THE whole economy of the tunnel is based upon statistics estimating total traffic and the amount expected to be diverted to the tunnel. The various estimates in the report vary widely; but profitability is dependent upon the estimates being reasonably accurate. Four years ago Flight commented: "The tunnel is unlikely to be the magic answer to ultra-low-cost transport between England and the Continent." This seems even more true now that we know more about it, though the independent operators of ships and air craft will probably benefit immensely if the tunnel project does go through. Attempting to replace the wide variety of sea and air services available to the motorist today, and those planned for the future, by one expensive and inflexible lump of transport would enable long-term plans to be made by competing operators in a way which has hitherto never been possible. So far as replacing the sea services goes, British and French Railways are committed, it has been said, to stop their routes Dover - Calais, Dover - Dunkirk, Dover - Boulogne and Newhaven - Dieppe. But will the Belgian Marine stop their successful Dover - Ostend service? And if they do would not an independent operator maintain the service? The tunnel report believes that the tunnel will divert most of the traffic because it offers cheaper rates and a faster service. But the cheaper rates are based on traffic assumptions which can be shown to be unrealistic. The rates proposed are £7 16s for the average- length car with three passengers and £112s for individual passengers. At the present time heavy landing and embarkation taxes are levied in France on both passengers and vehicles. The report does not mention these, nor does it say whether the very substantial revenue accruing from these taxes would be given up. The sum involved in 1963 is in excess of £lm and it makes a considerable difference to the proposed rates. The claimed speed for the train is 45min. This will probably not be more than 15min faster than ships in 1970 as it is not more than 25mjn faster than the latest ships in operation today. The proposal that loading and unloading can be achieved in lOmin is one that no experienced transport organization could possibly accept. A schedule must be aligned to the incidents which will always occur; to suggest that 300 cars can be loaded and unloaded without incident of any sort, in lOmin, is naive in the extreme. Customs and immi gration formalities are ignored in the report; but these have to be added to the time taken, as they are today. The following tables show the tunnel report estimates and (col. 2) those of BUAF:— Dover to Calais. The tunnel is therefore dependent upon costs applicable to other forms of transport which will, on average, be much greater than the charges for the tunnel itself. Because the proportion of the total cost will be insignificant the tunnel will be at the mercy of railway fares which in 1958-1963 have risen by 50 per cent—faster than any other form of transport. So even if the tunnel saves a few shillings, provincial and Continental rail increases could greatly exceed the savings. The airlines will make substantial inroads into the three million passengers estimated by the tunnel working party, as they have done with surface transport in the past decade. Two million passengers would probably be a more realistic estimate on past traffic growth and diversion to air. Air traffic may not have a substantial effect on the cargo traffic but merchant shipping is accustomed to competition and will undoubtedly find ways of undermining the report cargo estimate. Tunnel and road congestion, an improving standard of living, and new ideas by sea and air operators would all contribute to ensuring that probably the largest share of the growth would, after the initial opening of the tunnel, be more likely to go on other routes. BUAF's plans for the future are based on expansion of medium and long services. These services would be almost totally unaffected by the tunnel. The services expected to be in operation in ten years' time together with BUAF car-traffic estimates are:— Route Northern provinces-Continent Southend-Continent, medium and long routes (including Rotterdam) Short routes (including Ostend) Lydd-Continent, medium and long routes Short routes Hurn-Continent, medium and long routes Short routes 1973 20,000 25,000 30,000 50,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 170,000 1963 16,000 27,000 not operating 54,000 not operating 18,000 115,000 All this must be related to the growth of the air ferries in the past ten years—from 24,000 cars in 1953 to 115,000 in 1963 coupled with a considerable growth in sector length. In 1953 only the shortest routes were being operated. The air ferries will continue to expand using the speed and flexibility of air transport to greater effect as traffic develops. There is reasonable doubt whether the tunnel could attract sufficient traffic to be profitable with the independent sea and air competition it will have to face at the rates proposed for it—and rates are its main attraction. If the rates have to be changed, as would appear likaly euen if a subsidized interest rate is given, then its traffic will probably fall well below the economic level. Year 1963 1969 1973 I97G Estimates by Tunnel Working Group Car Traffic Upper Estimate 985,000 1,085,000 1.210,000 Lower Estimate 765,000 805,000 860,000 Cars Diverted to Tunnel Upper Estimate 655,000 720,000 805,000 Lower Estimate O*<N* 0 BUAF Estimate* The report does not give any sound reasons for its estimates of Passenger and goods traffic, but the most conspicuous omission is the failure to recognize that, in view of the tunnel's origin and destination, 99.9 per cent of the traffic does not want to go from Total cars 635,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Proportions between operators Tunnel Sea 460,000 470,000 520,000 520,000t 320,000* 360,000 450,000 Air 115.000 120,000 170,000 230,000 * Harwich - Hook of Holland, 15,000; Dover - Ostend, 125,000; Dover-Calais (Townsend), 50,000; Newhaven - Dieppe, 45,000; Southampton - Cherbourg, 55,000; UK - Portugal, Tilbury - Rotterdam and Antwerp and other routes, 30,000; Total, 320,000. t Harwich - Hook, 10,000; Dover - Ostend, 120,000; Dover - Calais (Townsend), 75,000; UK - Portugal, 3,000; Tilbury - Rotterdam and Antwerp and other routes, 2,000; Total, 520,000.
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