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Aviation History
1967
1967 - 0048.PDF
48 FLIGHT International 12 January !%j AIR TRANSPORT The prototype Concorde 001 at Toulouse is now nearly complete structurally. The last major structural item, the tail fin, was delivered from BAC Filton recently CONCORDE PROSPECTS AFARE DIFFERENTIAL, perhaps as high as 25 per cent, will benecessary to ensure continued traffic for subsonic air-craft and not to protect the supersonic transport. Without such a differential the shorter journey times of the Concorde will attract enough traffic to make it a paying proposition even at its higher seat-mile costs. When assuming a fare differen- tial, the prohibition of all supersonic operations over land, and no more than a three-year lead over a more economical American SST with the same range at capacity payload, BAC foresees a market for a minimum of 200 Concordes by 1975. These were among the points made by Mr E. H. Burgess, Concorde sales manager for BAC, at a press conference last week during which the Concorde was very vigorously sold. He considers that the SST will, in the longer term, make its biggest impact in the Pacific area, where the shorter flying times will produce an "explosion" in traffic. An over-land restriction of supersonic flights, if applied, will not be economically crippling for the Concorde on the routes over which it is likely to be used. Something like 73 per cent of the world's intercontinental seat-miles are, in fact, produced •on over-ocean services—including 42 per cent on the North Atlantic, 14 per cent on routes between North and South America and, at present, an overall 13 per cent on Pacific routes. On present information there is little difference between the maximum-payload range of the Concorde (4,080 st. miles) and the Boeing SST ("about 4,000 st. miles"). The difference in speed will not be significant in terms of block times at non-stop ranges less than 1,500 miles. On the North Atlantic the American SST will have a 20min advantage and on a London-Sydney service the difference will be about Ihr 15min. The direct seat-mile costs of the two aircraft will be approxi- mately the same—the Boeing SST will have twice as many seats as the Concorde, but will cost twice as much to buy and to operate. The total direct cost per hour of the Concorde is estimated at $1,990 (£710). Mr Burgess produced a "carpet" graph (reproduced on this page) to show the Concorde's likely return on investment for different depreciation periods and different average passen- ger load factors. At present revenue rates, when operating over a life of 12 years, for instance, at a 55 per cent load factor the Concorde will show a 17 per cent return. With a load factor of 60 per cent the return will be 23 per cent. The two SSTs, Mr Burgess considers, will meet entirely different operational needs. On the great majority of the world's long-haul routes the capacity of the Boeing SST (equivalent in productivity to "at least a 600-seat subsonic aircraft") will be greatly in excess of the demand even in the late 1970s. It will be a viable prospect on the heavy traffic North Atlantic route after about 1975 if traffic con- tinues to grow at present trends. The smaller Concorde has the advantage of being able to offer higher frequencies at reasonable load factors and of being able to operate direct services to and from points other than major terminals. The prototype Concorde (001) being made by Sud-Aviation is now almost complete structurally and is a few weeks ahead of schedule. The target date for the roll-out is October this year, with a first-flight date set for February 28, 1968. Work on the second prototype (002) at Filton is also on schedule, with a first-flight date planned about six months after that of 001. A decision on quantity production will need to be made within the next 12 months and options will be con- verted into firm contracts after the first prototype has been flying for six months. The present planned production rate at the two assembly plants is three a month, but this may be increased to five. BAC estimates of the likely annual return on investment in the Con- corde according to depreciation life and average load factor 100 80 ** 60 i z E £ 40 z zo z g 20 1 5 n -20 \ \ > r \ < > \ \ lOi > D FACTOR - 10B7. j —- 60 \,/r \\ ^
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