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Aviation History
1969
1969 - 0120.PDF
JET SAFETY Fig 12 "Operational" total- loss rate per lOO.OOOhr on a three-year moving average basis 62 63 64 64 65 66 67 68 this point, a detailed study of the causes of accidents is obviously essential, and this is beyond the scope of this article. The record of the second-generation jets during the past year is particularly important in view of the rapid expansion which is taking place in air transport. It has been shown that there has not been any great improvement in the jet accident rates during the last four or five years and the likelihood of an improvement during the next few years can only be con jectured. But, if the sceond generation result for 1968 can be maintained in future years, these aircraft will have an in creasingly beneficial effect on the overall accident rates as their numbers grow in relation to the first generation. If the steady-state accident rate continues the implications for the future are not good. It is estimated that by 1975 there will be around 6,000 jets in airline service. On this basis jet flying hours per year may well be around eighteen mil lion per year, quite possibly higher. If no improvement in ; FLIGHTInternational; If January 196? the total-loss rate occurs, some 40 total losses per year can be expected by 1975, whilst the number of fatal accidents may be around 25. Since the long-term trend in the total-loss rate and the fatal-accident rate are so important in this respect, they have been calculated on a three-year moving-average basis in an attempt to smooth out the misleading effects of good and bad years and good and bad three-million-hour periods. These two rates are shown in Fig 12. Unfortunately, the graph is not too encouraging. Whilst it does look as if there is still a slight downward trend with the operational total loss rate, the fatal-accident rate shows no sign of improvement. It must be remembered, however, that between now and 1975 a further 90 to one hundred million hours will probably be flown by the jets. The air transport industry will thus have a great deal more jet experience by the mid-1970s. It is to be hoped that this additional experience will pay divi dends in air safety. ESTIMATED JET HOURS BY TYPES AS AT DECEMBER 31, 1968. BAC One-Eleven Boeing 707/720 .. Boeing 727 Boeing 737 ' .. , Convair 880/990 .. Douglas DC-8 Douglas DC-9 HS Comet HS Trident Sud Caravelle VClO/Super VCI0 Millions 0.60 11.92 4.05 0.08 1.80 6.41 1.22 . 1.28 0.22 . 3.20 0.36 Total 31.14 TEN-YEAR JET TOTAL-LOSS SUMMARY Date 15. 8.59 27. 8.59 19.10.59 19. 1.60 20. 2.60 23. 5.60 16.12.60 19. 1,61 28. 1.61 15. 2.61 24. 4.61 30. 5.61 II. 761 27. 7.61 12. 9.61 28. 9.61 23.11.61 4.12.61 21.12.61 1. 3.62 25. 5.62 3. 6.62 22. 6.62 7 7.62 19. 7.62 21 8.62 27.11.62 12. 2.63 20. 3.63 30. 5.63 3. 7.63 28. 7.63 4. 9.63 6. 9.63 22.10.63 29.11.63 8.12.63 2S. 2.64 22. 3.64 7. 4.64 17. 4.64 15. 7.64 23.11.64 27. 2.65 20. 5.65 1. 7.65 16. 8.65 13. 9.65 17. 9.65 9.11.65 Aircraft B.707 Comet 4 B.707 Caravelle Comet 4 CV 880 DC-8 DC-8 B.707 B.707 DC-8 DC-8 DC-8 B.707 Caravelle Caravelle Comet 4 B.720B Comet 4B B.707 B.707 B.707 B707 DC-8 Comet 4C DC-8 B.707 B.720B Comet 4C CV990 Caravelle Comet 4C Caravelle Caravelle One-Eleven DC-8F B.707 DC-8 Comet 4 B.707 Caravelle B.720B B.707 CV 680 B.720B B.707 B.727 CV880 B.707 B.727 Operator American Aerolineas Braniff/Boeing SAS Aerolineas Delta United Aeronaves American Sabena AL KLM/VIASA United Air France Air France Varig Aerolineas Lufthansa BEA American Continental Air France Air France Alitalia UAA Panair Varig Northwesr, King Saud American Aerolineas UAA Swissair Panair BAC Trans-Canada PAA Eastern Malaysian PAA MEA Lufthansa TWA ML PIA Continental United TWA PAA American Fatalities Pass 1 — 35 — — 77 — 61 — 47 16 . —. 71 — 40 — 20 87 37 122 102 85 18 14 80 35 9 55 74 III 73 51 — — 42 45 106 — 24 21 53 Crew 5 1 4 7 —, 4 7 4 6 II — 14 — .— 6 — 12 3 7 8 8 8 10 9 8 1 17 8 9 8 6 7 7 8 7 — — 7 3 5 13 — 6 — 9 5 Date 1 1.1 1.65 25.11.65 24 1.66 4. 2.66 15. 2.66 4. 3.66 5. 3.66 3. 6.66 1. 7.66 4. 7.66 6. 3.66 13. 8.66 26. 8.66 4. 9.66 2.10.66 15.11.66 4.12.66 5. 3.67 9. 3.67 30. 3.67 20. 5.67 23. 6.67 30. 6.67 19. 7.67 12.10.67 4.11.67 5.11.67 6.11 67 21.11.67 9. 1.68 7. 2.68 17. 2.68 5. 3.68 21. 3.68 8. 4.68 20. 4.68 28. 4.68 28. 5.68 13. 6.68 29. 6.68 3. 7.68 13. 7.68 2. 8.68 8. 9.68 11. 9.68 12.12.68 26.12.68 27.12.68 Aircraft B.727 DC-8 B.707 B.727 Caravelle DC-8 B.707 Trident Trident DC-8 One-Eleven DC-8 CV880 Caravelle DC-9 B.727 DC-8 DC-8 DC-9 DC-8 DC-8 One-Eleven Caravelle B.727 Comet 4B Caravelle CV880 B.707 CV880 B.720 B.707 B.727 B.707 B.727 B.707 B.707 DC-8 CV990 B:707 DC-8* Trident? B.707 DC-8 B.707* Caravelle B.707 B.707 DC-9 Operator United Trans-Caribbean Air-India All Nippon Indian CPAL BOAC. Hawker Siddeley Kuwait Air NZ Bran iff Aeronaves JAL Indian West-Coast PAA Aeronaves Varig TWA Delta Air Canada Mohawk Thai Intl. Piedmont BEA Iberia Cathay TWA TWA Ethiopian (leased to MEA) Standard (leased to CPA) CAT Air France United BOAC SAA Capitol Garuda PAA KLM BEA Sabena Alitalia Varig Air Inter PAA PAA Ozark Fatalities Pass 43 — 106 126 2 54 113 — — — 37 — — — 13 i— — 50 21 — — 30 21 74 59 30 1 — 59 — — 18 49 — 4 126 — 15 5 — _ — 12 — 89 42 — — Crew — II 7 — 10 II 4 — 2 4 6 5 4 5 3 — 1 4 6 3 4 — 5 7 7 — — 5 — 1 3 14 — 1 12 — 14 1 — — 7 — -— 6 9 3 * Hanger fires. f Struck by crashing Ambassador.
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