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Aviation History
1969
1969 - 1406.PDF
FLIGHT International, 6 February 1969 207 To get a feel for this business, Table 1 lists the type and- number of aircraft operated by the world's air forces today, excluding those of the major aircraft manufacturing countries— USA, UK, France and USSR. There are about 12,000 operational-role aircraft and over 8,000 training aircraft, or a total of about 20,000. A large proportion of these will need replacing. Also, during the last ten years the number of air forces in the world has risen from 82 to 110; and it is reasonable to expect more new ones to emerge, each with its demand for equipment. The BAC military market intelligence team has examined the design origins of these 20,000 aircraft in detail, country by country. TABLE I: AIRCRAFT IN CURRENT USE (excluding UK, USA. USSR. France) Bombers Combat Armed Trainers Trainers Totals Piston Powered Subsonic jet, no radar Advanced jet. with radar Piston powered, no radar Jet powered, no radar Advanced jet, with radar Piston powered Jet powered Piston powered, under 3.0001b ... Piston powered, over 3,0001b Jet powered Operational 361 349 45 58B 5,603 4.667 293 91 E 11.997 Training 27 3 1,721 337 — 2,000 2,000 1.904 8.195 To assess the future we must examine the markets against the economic situation expected to exist in the world. Broadly speaking, military aircraft spending is broken down into five groups. Military transports, maritime reconnaissance and air borne early-warning types will in the main be developed from civil aircraft and account for about 35 per cent. The small basic trainer needs about 5 per cent. It is unlikely that we shall embark again on a strategic-aircraft development pro gramme, but these account for about 10 per cent of the total spent. But 50 per cent of the military spending is likely to be for aircraft of the trainer, armed trainer, and combat types ranging from 10,0001b to about 40,0001b all-up weight. In parallel with the study of an individual country's require ments it is necessary to look at the global picture. A number of independent forecasts have been made in the fairly recent past which are also essentially built up from country-by- country forecasts. TABLE 2: MARKET FORECASTS FOR PERIOD 1965-1974 Reference ElU DMS SBAC Light strike/ fighter 4.605 4,890 5,860 Jet trainer 2,817 2,808 2,151 Total 7.422 7,698 8,011 Average per year 742 770 801 Average per year 1955-1964 (SBAC), 1.250: average per year 1976-1980 (ElU), 503 Military market forecasts have been made by The Economist Intelligence Unit's survey for the SBAC and Mintech; the Defence Market Surveys survey for 1965-75, commissioned by the Canadian Department of Industry, and the export forecast by the British aerospace industry for 1965-75, being part of the submission to the Plowden Committee. Figures are also shown for 1955 to 1964 for comparative purposes and the ElU forecast for 1976-80 is given for continuity. The EIU survey included a prediction of trends in Gross National Product and in some cases of defence budgets and amounts available for military aviation procurement. Further work by BAC, in conjunction with experience of historical fact, has produced methods of estimating worldwide military aircraft budgets from GNP predictions. As with the market forecasts these exclude the USA, the Soviet Bloc and the UK, but they do indicate a rising annual market of from £1,200 million in 1965 to about £1,500 million by about 1980. The term "military aircraft procurement" as used by EIU and BAC includes the purchase of missiles and spares which experience has shown account for about 50 per cent. There fore, from the average total figure of £1,300 million per ?10 1955 1965 MISSILES & SPARES OTHER MILITARY AIR CRAFT 1975 1985 LIGHT COMBAT A|C S, TRAINERS Fig 2 Market summary 14 ^^ o £ 12 X ,•7110 >- a: LU Q-8 <~ feB d •z. 4 CJ3 < ai UJ2 <. 0 - - - _ - N& '' \Px- i i 'tf/ <sr J£~ , - 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 annum, 25 per cent, or £375 million, is available per year for the trainer and combat market. The SBAC survev attempted to cost its forecast for the years 1965-75 and came out with the slightly lower figure £295 million. Aircraft in the relevant categories will include the vertical take-off Hawker Siddeley Harrier and its developments, and when this type goes into service next year it will be yet another world first for the UK. The Jaguar is as assured as any aircraft can be of a profitable market. In addition to the French and British initial total of 400 aircraft there is a good chance of a further 500 being exported or licence-built. There will be developments of this aircraft which are included in this number and which I would think would be toward improved airfield performance. Of the other existing aircraft at the lower end of the weight bracket the Jet Provost trainer, and particularly its armed version, will find continued interest among defence- orientated smaller nations. There will be a need to replace the F104s in the NATO countries. These are the Canadian CAMRA and German NKF requirements as well as our own. The UK requirement is to meet the hole left by the cancellation of the Anglo- French variable-geometry aircraft, which was to have been the backbone of the RAF from the middle 70s. The means by which each country's need is filled has yet to be deter mined, but a great effort is being made to make this a multi-national project. If we are successful in achieving this aim, the reward is a sizeable assured market from the word go. But we must be strong in our intentions here and be prepared to go it alone if necessary. There are a number of air forces which, whilst their own requirements will not demand an aircraft of the Jaguar class or the advanced combat aircraft class (30-40,0001b a.u.w.) will all the same have the desire to operate "modern" equipment. Royal Australian Air Staff Requirement No AER/64 is such a case. It calls for a trainer with close-support capability to enter service around 1974. This aircraft can be regarded as a Sabre replacement and our surveys indicate it should be possible to sell 500 or 600 on the world market. The resulting aircraft would probably be in the 12,0001b a.u.w. class (a half-sized Jaguar) and might possibly use variable wing-sweep. At the other end of the scale military transports will almost certainly be a variation of existing and new civil airliners. For maritime reconnaissance T expect the Nimrod to follow the history of the Shackleton and have a similar long life, taking it through the seventies. (To be concluded)
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