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Aviation History
1970
1970 - 0086.PDF
ALL SET FOR THE SEVENTIES . . . the award of the fixed-wing S-3A contract to the Lockheed/ LTV partnership. If HSX is ultimately to appear it is probable that not more than 120 should be required at a unit cost exceeding $3.8m, with service deliveries commencing no earlier than mid-1976. Light Shipborne ASW Helicopter (LAMPS) This light airborne multi-purpose system is a new Navy requirement for a light helicopter designed for operation from destroyers or frigates, similar to the Royal Navy's shipboard employment of the Westland Wasp. Sikorsky are known to have offered an advanced design and Raman have drawn up the K-700. But since the US Navy have made it known that they would consider a modified form of some existing type, several other manufacturers have entered the arena, including Hughes (Model 500), Bell (Model 206/212) and Fairchild Hiller (1100). Total orders should not exceed 230 helicopters, with service introduction not expected before late 1973. Unit price estimates must await some clearer indication of the Navy's preference. Lockheed S-3A (VSX) The contract for this Grumman S-2 ASW replacement was placed with Lockheed on August 1 last year. At present this ties the Navy only to the development of six pre-production aircraft. Subsequent procurement of production batches up to 193 further S-3As is tied to contractual break clauses, related to the achievement of certain development milestones. First flight is set for early 1972, with initial service deliveries follow ing in late 1973. Unit price, including spares, should lie between $6 million-$7 million. But. assuming that no major problems arise, there is a good chance that export sales could flow in for possibly up to a further 180 aircraft from Canada and other NATO countries. Counter-insurgency Aircraft (COIN) Approximately 1,000 such aircraft are in service, or are about to be delivered to the three US services, comprising some 350 Cessna A-37s for the Air Force, 280 North American 64 FLIGHT International, S January 1970 , OV-10A Broncos for the USAF and Marines, and 370 Cessna ' 0-2s for the USAF and Army. Whilst a few additional orders , may be forthcoming (particularly for A-37s) it is now ex- , tremely doubtful if further large-scale purchases will be authorised until quite late into the 1970s, since AX will meet the same primary function. > Current Basic and Advanced Jet Training Aircraft , This category comprises some 900 still-active Cessna T-37 basic trainers plus almost the same number of Northrop T-38 Talon advanced trainers. To these must be added the Navy's , North American T-2 Buckeye, of which about 160 remain in service, and a miscellany of ageing specialist training types such' > as the Lockheed T-33, and Convair T-29, the total numbers of , which probably do not exceed a further 250 on active inventory. Basic Jet Training Aircraft (TBAX) This requirement was formulated some three years ago to provide a replacement by the mid-1970s for the Cessna T-37, > a design which first flew some fifteen years ago. Assuming that pressure will be brought to bear in matching USAF and Navy needs for a basic trainer, then TBAX should also replace i the North American T-2 Buckeye and the total probable order will be in the order of 700 aircraft, plus a further 300 for export. Unit cost with spares should not exceed $500,000. < Northrop T-38 Talon Replacement Similarly, a positive requirement for some 800 aircraft exists < from the mid-1970s onwards for a common USAF/Navy advanced trainer with which to replace the T-38. Export follow-on could account for a further 300 sales of this aircraft, • the unit price of which (with spares) should not exceed $1.2 million, and could well prove substantially lower. Business Jets, 10-30 Seat > This market is still proving a highly elusive one for many manufacturers and it should be recalled that a total of less than 1.000 jets have been sold throughout the world over the , past six or more years. Historically, this is a market area within which European manufacturers can still compete on * equal terms with their US rivals, for example the Dassault Fan-Jet Falcon and the HS.I25. The current indications are A that insufficient development may well lead to a progressive decay in the market penetration of European jets against the ' second-generation larger capacity longer-range US aircraft exemplified by the Grumman Gulfstream 2 and the projected Lockheed Jetstar 3. Markets for 500 of these larger aircraft could be achieved by 1980, possibly split almost equally between Grumman and Lockheed. Unit prices, including spares, lie between $3.4 million and $4.5 million, with the Jetstar 3 * being in the higher cost bracket. The early advent of supersonic and VTOL business jets has receded visibly with the onset of President Nixon's anti-infla tionary measures, and although Ryan were known to be working on a VTOL type and no less than three US manu facturers (Fairchild, North American and Lockheed) were each • studying supersonic types, all appear to have been shelved for several years at least. In view of the current economic situation it is difficult to see how the forecast sales of 300 supersonic % and 300 VTOL types can be realised by 1980. General-aviation Aircraft and Helicopters Numerically, this market swamps the total of all other • civil and military markets put together. In 1968, general aviation production in the United States amounted to some 14,500 ' aircraft and helicopters, with aircraft accounting for more than 95 per cent of the total market. But the average unit price, plus spares, probably does not.exceed $38,000. Forecasts of the growth of this market vary widely, but a fair estimate indicates that annual production may well rise to between 1 17.000 and 17.500 aircraft by 1980. The average unit price should rise at a significantly higher rate, however, as the turbo- , prop powerplant progressively encroaches upon what was previously the sole domain of the piston engine. Again, it is difficult to foresee any great increase in the helicopter's share r of the market; in fact this could be diminished as the truly , STOL light aircraft becomes established.
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