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Aviation History
1971
1971 - 0055.PDF
50 FLIGHT International, (4 January 1971 •iiiiimiiiiiHi Life after Mediator When the revised United Kingdom air traffic control structure is introduced on February 1 the system will be able to handle the traffic of the early seventies. But the growth of air traffic demands that already plans must be prepared to cater for the situation that wil! arise by the end of the decade. GPS Sciences is an organisation which specialises in air traffic studies and in this article Paul Holden, operational planning manager, looks at techniques which can be expected ten years from now. The article is based on a paper presented by Mr Holden to the Guild of Air Traffic Control Officers convention. INTERNATIONAL Air Transport Association figures predict that the compound annual growth rate of passengers travelling via London will increase annually by 10.5 per cent. In terms of numbers this means that by 1980 approxi mately 57 million people will travel through the five London airports of Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton, Stansted and Southend. This is nearly equivalent to the population of the UK. It only requires this trend to continue to the ultimate, with the entire population becoming airborne at the same time, and the application of ATC from the ground will become purely academic. But although there may be aesthetic interest in the figures that emerge from aircraft, the controllers' pro fessional interest will be concerned with the growth rate in aircraft movements, be they Jumbos, Super Jumbos or, conversely, the latest trend in mini-jet. How then do we tackle the problem of defining the ATC task in, say, five, ten or even 15 years' time so that we can provide the equipment, the communications, the navi gational aids, the radar and displays, the data links and the co-ordination systems that obviously will be required, and which therefore need to be specified today? One of the most effective aids to planning is simulation. Controllers are familiar enough with real-time simulation having experienced the delights or tortures of simulation at one of the ATC schools (Hum, Sopley, Shawbury or Southall). This same technique is used at the Evaluation Unit at Hurn to generate future traffic intensities to evaluate the procedures and equipment that will be required. The application of fast-time simulation techniques using a computer-based airspace model permits forecast future traffic intensities to be processed at very high speed. It is a tool that provides the authority for some of our later conclusions. By simulating current traffic densities we can measure the current problem and by simulating forecast future densities we can gain comparative measures of the future problem. Controllers tell me that they already know what the problem is; it is too many aircraft, calling too often, for too much. These are simply work overload problems at peak periods. There is an ultimate limit to the process of establishing additional sectors to spread the workload, as these almost certainly generate even more work because of the need for increased co-ordination. But is this measure of the workload analytical in any way, or can it be summed up by saying that controllers consider certain seats at LATCC or in Approach are, and always will be, "hot seats"? A fast-time simulator measures factors affecting workload when programmed with a given traffic sample, route structure and set of ATC procedures. It will print out such mundane details as instantaneous counts of the number of aircraft in the TMA, or within defined sectors, during defined periods, or at any given time. Far more than this, it can be made to indicate the occurrence of all potential conflict situations. The occurrence of these situations provides another measure of workload. Their parameters can be pro grammed into the computer to indicate how frequently intervention by a controller is necessary to prevent a situation becoming unsafe, e.g., by separation minima being infringed. The computer output, therefore, will indicate not only how heavily a controller is going to be loaded by any given traffic sample and ATC procedure, but it will also indicate the "where" and "when" of all potential conflict situations. Where these are repetitive in nature, there is obviously a case to see if they can be eliminated or reduced by revision of the current route structures or procedures. This revision of route structures and procedures is one of the most effective end-products. It aims to produce an optimisation of a route structure within a TMA, or the less critical but still vitally important en-route segments. This provides a number of routes within a given area of airspace having the least attainable critical event situations con sistent with economic routeing of traffic. What that means to a controller is that the route structure and ATC pro cedures can be tailored to meet the forecast traffic demand and without exceeding predetermined safe limits of controller engagement in the various tasks which the eyes,
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