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Aviation History
1972
1972 - 0087.PDF
FLIGHT International, 13 January 1972 • A 6-6 times growth in traffic between UK and Europe; • Within this, a four-fold growth in business traffic; • A 9-5 times growth of European IT traffic—from 45 per cent to 60 per cent of total. A persistent small but significant growth is thus the picture which emerges. Future vehicles The argument was advanced for the necessity of inter national agreement on an overall transport system before an economically viable plan for vehicle development could be drawn up. An efficient environment was necessary for such vehicles to achieve competitive economy. A cost-benefit analysis of total transport costs, spanning V/Stol, Rtol and Ctol, was needed before very heavy expenditure could be committed, and "on a simple domestic inter-city comparison it is by no means a foregone con clusion that aircraft are the best answer." The main justification for a new system therefore had to be found in the international sector. In this context the main pressure for radical V/Stol had arisen from the conventional-aviation problems developing in London and the South-East of England. Nowhere else in Europe was "within years of reaching the problem level now clearly ahead for London." This, the speaker thought, lessened the chances of achieving vital international agreements 55 on a radical development "and it is more likely to be a long-drawn-out process." Factors militating against new systems would be the projected large percentage of non-tim&conscious IT traffic, and conservative attitudes in that it could be difficult to get any movement on the problem until the conventional system had floundered and the alternatives afforded by surface transport had failed to materialise. V/Stol advocates for the US North-East corridor, it was noted, had lost ground with the temporary alleviation of the congestion problem following the traffic recession and frequency cutbacks with the introduction of the 747 and DC-10. The first runway for London, Foulness, would probably be needed by 1980 if Heathrow and Gatwick developments were limited and Luton and Stansted were closed, as is possible. Use of Foulness could result in a 20 per cent time increase for an average journey to Paris or Amster dam and a total fare increase (due to the long surface link) jf 10 per cent. V/Stol was not "an immediately practicable course," but Mr Wilkinson combined the benefits offered by the known range of development prospects: Vtol gave a 35 per cent seat-mile-cost penalty over a 200 n.m., 370km range; 2,000ft, 660m Stol gave a 10 per cent loss; but Rtol with a 4,000ft, 1,320m capability could be achieved with only a 2 per cent cost increase. At a design range of 650 n.m., 1,200km a 3,300ft, 1,000m Rtol aircraft could turn in almost identical direct and total costs to the Trident 3. The benefits of Rtol would be reduced taxi times, more direct air routings and reduced landing fees, because of shorter, cheaper runways. Briefly, the travelling-time benefits for Rtol and Vtol on a 200-mile stage with a UK origin were summarised as follows: • Rtol from Northolt (about five miles north of Heathrow) could achieve a half-hour total-time reduction to 3!4hr compared with Ctol from Heathrow. • Vtol from Kings Cross mainline railway station would cut 78min from the journey time. • Ctol from Foulness would add 55min to the Heathrow time. Weighted average UK passenger journeys were used as the yardstick—total times being quoted. There would be doubt, said Mr Wilkinson, about the acceptability of V/Stol close to city centres, but Rtol could cut the 90PNdB footprint to 1*4 sq miles. Air Transport continued on page 57 Top, journey-time comparison graph. Right, annoyance-value contour map, based on the "noise and number index" for the London area comparing 1970 and 1990. The map assumes for 1990 that dominant traffic is long-haul (as now) with powerplants SEPNdB per unit thrust quieter than the RB.2II. Conventional short-haulers would have CF6jRB.2ll-type powerplants, with 200- seat Rtol coming into service in 1978, oper ating from Northolt to Europe and attaining a single-runway annual movement rate of 100,000 by 1990. By 1983 a 350-seat QRtol is assumed to be operational from Northolt and Heathrow. A less-than-200-seat Rtol would be needed for secondary services. A 15 per cent increase in today's 330,000 "conventional" movements at Heathrow is assumed. In the map the upper group of contours surrounds Northolt and the lower group Heathrow \ \ \ \ \ \ \ vBeaconsfield Gerrards Cross Ruislip -1970 -1990 Wembley Burnham / ; Hillingdon Maidenhead \ \ vSlough Southall Ealing Hayes'7 Brentford ','-) Hammersmith \ Windsor Fulham \ Wandsworth J _M . \ f _./•' " Feltham \ 1 _- *3 \\ / Staines ', \ •--"""" \Eatam >Sunbury j \ Bracknell \ ~~-.„ \ \ 'Richmond 1 \ Chertsey v, \ x \Surbiton
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