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Aviation History
1972
1972 - 0088.PDF
FLIGHT International, 13 January 1972 56 * BRITISH AEROSPACE TOMORROW Continued from page 50 the whole life of the project, the initial units are necessarily expensive to produce. The industry has to face competition from foreign manufacturers generously supported by aid from their own governments. It is possible to assess the value to the national economy of Government launching aid to civil products as being the price paid by the Government to allow the industry to earn and save foreign currency, given that all home aircraft sales are indispensable and would otherwise be imported. This is a premium to help stave off the major problem of the economy, the balance of payments crises which lead to restriction of growth and loss of real resources far in excess of the launching aid for aerospace projects. In assessing the relative importance of this payment we have to bear in mind the low import content of the industry's exports. Two projects which received aid suffered in overseas markets from being too closely tailored to national airline requirements. The One-Eleven, designed for the world market, has sold more successfully. If the cash flows are discounted at 8 per cent per annum, it emerges that the premium paid by HMG for exports and imports saving has been about 5J2 per cent—a low figure which will be further reduced by continuing sales. The time scale for the production of aircraft, engines, guided weapons and major equipment systems is such that investment in research and development proceeds over a period of five to seven years, followed by production for a further ten years and product support for up to 15 years thereafter. The current high level of exports derives from decisions to go ahead with projects made more than a decade ago. The industry can only maintain its role as an exporter in the short run if existing major projects are brought to full fruition and in the longer run if a decision is made to support new projects at the earliest possible moment; a temporary lull in market demand should not be allowed to affect this latter decision. Need for policy The need to formulate a policy for the civil sector is acute and a comprehensive survey of requirements is urgently required. Though the guided-weapons sector is reasonably well placed with the present generation of weapons, the future there gives cause for concern. The situation with regard to military aircraft can be considered more satisfactory in relative terms, but there too the long term future remains in doubt. In view of the growing cost and complexity of much aerospace equipment, which on average accounts for about one-third of the selling price of a modern aircraft, there is also a strong case for formulating a policy towards this sector of the aerospace industry. This policy should extend to providing launching aid for manufacturers engaged on advanced equipment systems. In order to minimise the technological losses, it is important that discussions be held with all sectors of the industry, including its main suppliers, to define what our critical interests are before HMG embarks upon detailed negotiations with foreign governments, and these should continue throughout the whole programme. Previous ex perience shows that at any given stage in the negotiations for collaborative projects the British industry has been given less information than its competitors. An arms-length relationship between Government and industry must be avoided at all costs. The industry reaffirms its faith in collaboration in Europe, though it recognises that opportunities for collaboration with US firms will also occur. The industry also reaffirms its desire for full consultation before detailed negotiations on all projects are undertaken. If the country wishes to avoid complete dependence on foreign sources for the supply of essential defence equip ment, it is necessary to maintain in Britain a capability to produce military aircraft, engines and equipment of ad vanced design. The risks of such dependence are obvious. The nation would forego the ability to produce aircraft for its own special needs; it would be open to powerful politi cal pressure from its foreign suppliers; it would be sub ject to the vagaries of their procurement policies and have little bargaining power in negotiating purchases. The GW sector of the industry was started 20 years ago at the request of HMG. Its first decade was essentially a formative period, but for the past ten years it has supplied a wide variety of weapons to all three arms of the British Forces, and has made an increasingly substantial contri bution to exports. It is now one of the most experienced GW industries in the world, and its competence compares favourably with that of GW industries abroad, but to exploit this and gain a good return on our investment re quires a positive policy for the future. Such a policy can emanate only from HMG, for guided weapons have no civil applications and missile system R&D costs are, in general, too high for industry to sponsor development solely for sale overseas. Thus, to retain a modern industrial capability for the defence of the UK, prevent unnecessary imports of foreign equipment for our Forces and maintain our valuable and growing export trade in GW, there is a need for a sound future programme of work. Within this, there is an urgent need for an injection of new work, if the industry is not to suffer serious and immediate decline, and also a stable and positive long-term policy. The resources required to develop tactical guided- weapons systems are individually much smaller than those required to develop aircraft, but it is recognised that there are good reasons why, in a number of cases, some form of international collaboration is desirable or essential. How ever, it remains vital to maintain an expertise in a range of weapon-system technologies in order that skills will not be lost in the interim period before further operational requirements for weapon systems arise, so that UK industry is technically equipped to play its proper part in such collaborative projects and in new British requirements. Civil aircraft Current programmes, which have contributed heavily to the rise of exports, are now coming to an end. The only new projects in progress are Concorde, a share in the A-300B and the RB.211 engine. The direction of future developments in the following areas should be vigorously pursued in order to establish our long-term position in civil aviation. First, the demand for fast long-range air travel will continue to grow, and the industry must exploit to the full the technological and commercial lead it has established in supersonic flight. Second, aircraft noise has become a matter of major public concern and much quieter aircraft of all kinds need to be developed. Such new types should include the medium-capacity, four-engined long-range aircraft and an economic feeder-line aircraft to supersede the very large number of propeller-driven types now in service through out the world. Third, the need for efficient short-haul inter-city services and the growing problems of aircraft location, congestion and noise indicate a large potential demand for aircraft with a shorter-field capability in the immediate future and for V/Stol aircraft in the longer term. Inter-city travel by aircraft of this kind offers the most promising field for the growth of air travel over the next two decades, especially in Europe with its relatively dense centres of population. This is of particular importance to the UK in the context of the EEC because of the paucity of surface transport between the British Isles and the remainder of Europe. Support from HMG for this work has been far from adequate, and the industry urges that HMG should support the Aicma* proposal for a study of intra-European air transport systems to decide upon aircraft to fulfil these needs and, if considered desirable, to take the lead in their counsels and to propose the co-ordination of the purchasing policies of the European national airlines. * AICMA is the association of European aerospace industries
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