FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
1973
1973 - 0004.PDF
On the horizon Airlines A NEW YEAR brighter than the two or three past is at hand for the airlines, although profitability in 1973 is still giving cause for concern. Traffic generally is improving, with good growth on the North Atlantic and a return to average growth—around 12 per cent—in many other markets. This year the airlines of lata are expected to fly 325 million passengers on scheduled international services, with almost 460,000 million passenger- km, an increase of 13 per cent on 1972. Cargo traffic is expected to amount to 15,400 million tonne-km, a 20 per cent increase. There was a warning this week from the lata director-general, Knut Hammarskjold, however, that it was still difficult to forecast the point at which financial returns would become adequate to form the basis for further development of the industry. Worries about an adequate return also beset the airline industry in the USA. The chairman of the Civil Aero nautics Board, Secor Browne, said just before Christmas that the net profit of the US carriers was likely to have amounted to $200-250 million in 1972, and might reach $250-300 million this year—but that the highest figure would represent no more than an 8 per cent return on investment. He said that a 12 per cent return might be reached late in the 1970s. Excess capacity seems likely to con tinue as one of the airlines' obstacles to greater prosperity. Both Mr Browne and Mr Hammarskjold expressed fears on this score. Mr Browne said that he was disturbed to find some airlines planning capacity increases of 10-11 per cent, and added that they should not re-equip further without a sustained period of profitability. Other obstacles to prosperity are cost inflation (a general affliction) and declining revenue yield. The delicate balance between reducing fares to attract the mass market and main taining a sufficient average revenue rate per tonne-km will test scheduled airlines' managements, particularly as they introduce part-charter. The biggest traffic builder will be the advance-booking charter, which will be available on the North Atlantic early this year and possibly in other areas by or during 1974. As adminis tered by Britain the scheme will be without capacity or price control; the prospect of opening floodgates is caus ing anxiety to scheduled airlines, and the degree to which charter carriers find new prosperity in the process de pends on the regulatory authorities. The new charter developments were largely responsible for the breakdown of lata North Atlantic fares negotia tions; the onus will be on the asso ciation during 1973 to show that it can save its tariff machinery from disinte gration and adapt it to changing times. The governments for their part hope that it will manage to do so. There can be little hope that 1973 will see a significant reduction in hi jacking and armed aggression, although new moves by Cuba could bring improvement in that one area. Increasing militancy from pilots will meet international inaction; whether this will do more than disrupt services remains to be seen. Icao's legal com mittee is due to discuss a new draft treaty in Montreal next week. D.H.W. Commercial aviation POSSIBLY the most significant event of 1973 in the field of commercial air craft will be Boeing's decision on what to build next and whether it will be with the Italians and/or the Japanese. Whatever aircraft emerges it will fall into the short- to medium-range bracket, with a major emphasis on quietness, and probably using over- wing engines of the RB.211 type slung well forward. A similar project in the 200-seat class is under study by the Europlane consortium of BAC, MBB, Saab and Casa. This spring should see it pro ceed beyond the initial project-studies phase. The rather larger A300B should be well on its way to certification by the end of the year, with first deliveries scheduled for the spring of 1974. In many circles McDonnell Douglas is confidently expected to launch a twin-engined, short-range version of the DC-10 as a direct competitor for the A300B. Lockheed should soon be in a position to decide whether to launch the extended-range TriStar Dash 2, and Boeing will begin build ing the first of the short-range 747SRs for Japan Air lines. At the lower end of the size bracket, the first Dassault Mercure will be delivered to Air Inter. Sales of the Boeing 727 should continue unabated and Hawker Siddeley Trident deliveries to China will really get under way. A decision by the British Government on whether to support the HS.146 feederliner project is likely to be made in May. A prototype installation of slats on the Fokker-VFW F.28 should get air borne towards the end of the year and the VFW 614 is scheduled to> move into production, ready for deliveries to begin in mid-1974. The Dassault Mystere 30 should begin its flight-test programme this spring. On the supersonic-transport front a number of major international airlines are likely to make a decision on whether to buy Concorde. In the United States there has already been FLIGHT international, 4 January [973 anti-SST pressure in anticipation of a revival of the US project. After the slack period of the past two or three years the order books of the major manufacturers are starting to swell again, and Boeing is predict ing a market for commercial jet air craft from now until 1980 of $49,000 million. All such aircraft already sold have a total value of $37,000 million. P.M. Military aviation OFFENCE AND DEFENCE are the areas of aviation where, more than any other, events happen without warning, cer tainly for the public, and 1973 is un likely to be unusual in this respect. Thus it would be a brave man who predicted with any confidence what will come out of the melting-pot of South East Asia. At least at the time of writing the signs of a ceasefire are more hopeful, with bombing of north of the 20th Parallel halted, by order of the Presi dent, while serious peace negotiations are going on. There is little doubt that protagonists of the North Ameri can Rockwell B-1A (not to fly until 1974) will be pointing to recent B-52 losses over the defended targets of North Vietnam as a real justification for the huge expenditure on develop ing this low-level supersonic bomber with its stand-off Srams. It is just pos sible that the USSR's counterpart to the B-1A, Backfire, may be seen by the public for the first time. It is now six years since the great military air display at Domodedovo and the pre vious one was six years before that. Moving down the size scale some what, 1973 should be a more active year on the MRCA front than was 1972. Panavia is still giving December as the time for a first flight, and the Vulcan RB.199 test bed will now be flying in March. One argument which must see a settlement during the year is the one over Gruman's F-14. The 48 Tomcats from No 87 are in a state of suspended animation. With the US Navy standing firm in its admiration for the aircraft, and with the manufacturer equally firm about its inability to continue under this, the last of the McNamara fixed-price contracts, a move from Congress towards compromise may be expected. Meanwhile the USAF's F-15 should really get under way this year with much of the Service's early evaluations being completed. The first of the big "fly-before-buy" competitions is over; we will know by the end of February whether North- rop's A-9A or Fairchild's A-10A is to be the USAF's new close-support aircraft. Back in Europe, the Dassault- Breguet/Dornier Alpha Jet strike- trainer is due to fly before the end of the year, though it may drop back to 1974. The Royal Air Force will be putting its first Jaguars into service this summer—-the French Air Force will by then have had its for a year.
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
