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Aviation History
1973
1973 - 1910.PDF
FLIGHT International, 12 July 1973 63 DOUGLAS TOMORROW continued from page 62 Many of these developments will be available for an advanced SST by the mid-1980s. According to the director of advanced design, the aircraft could have a maximum take-off weight of 860,0001b, 390,000kg, a maximum pay- load of 55,3001b, 25,150kg and a maximum mixed-class capacity of 270 passengers. The engines would provide a total sea-level static thrust of 290,0001b, l,280kN and a range of 4,160 n.m., 7,700km at Mach 2 • 7 and an altitude of 65,000ft. Significantly, the Douglas proposal for a second-generation SST employs a slender delta wing rather than variable geometry. Collaboration: an American view J OHN BRIZENDINE, executive vice-president of the Douglas Aircraft Company, does not subscribe to the view, often expressed by leaders of the European aerospace industry, that the Americans are involved in a conspiracy to prevent the sale of European aircraft and equipment in the United States. Sales of Concorde, he says, are purely a matter of economics and ecology and there are certainly no barriers facing the A300B. The European Airbus will provide strong competition for the DC-10 Twin, which Douglas expects to launch soon (see Flight for June 7, page 884). Brizendine does not think that US airlines are reluctant to buy Euro pean products—if the economics and product support are right—but suggests that the airlines will have to keep an eye on the US balance of payments before placing large contracts abroad, or they may incur the displeasure of the US Government. Engines from Rolls-Royce and Snecma, he insists, will be evaluated by McDonnell Douglas on their merits when the powerplant for the next Douglas Commer cial aircraft is being chosen. The launching cost of major civil projects now approaches a thousand million dollars and Brizendine be lieves that we will eventually see international collabora tion on all major civil aircraft. McDonnell Douglas's col laborative ventures started with the DC-9, and a large number of nations including Spain, Japan, Italy and Israel are now involved with the DC-10 programme. While collaboration provides additional sources of capital and the promise of increased sales and lower unit costs for the prime contractor, the overseas partners also gain consider able advantages. Production of DC-9 and DC-10 wings by Douglas at Toronto has provided • a large balance-of-pay ments surplus in Canada's favour, despite significant sales to Air Canada. It has been the Douglas policy in the past to make extensive use of subcontractors, but the anti trust laws in the United States are likely to prevent any closer association between domestic aerospace companies. The consequences for American industry of international collaboration should be pondered, Brizendine says, before major decisions are taken. Financial considerations McDonnell Douglas, with- the Phantom, DC-9 and DC-10 selling well, is in a stronger financial position than either Boeing or Lockheed and can raise the money needed to' launch the DC-10 Twin from its own resources. The execu tive vice-president does not believe his company is there fore motivated in the same way as Boeing or Lockheed to seek new partners and new sources of capital. McDonnell Douglas, however, will be watching developments and the company does not have a closed attitude towards collabora tion. The difficulties collaboration brings, he says, are pro portional to the square of the number of partners, and co operation with Europe could be easier if there were fewer aerospace companies. The pressures on companies to collaborate are high lighted by Douglas's own cost figures. In the last five years direct labour costs, omitting overheads, have risen from $4/hr to $6/hr. Payroll-related costs, which reflect changes in social legislation and include fringe benefits and insur ance, have increased from $40 to $90 per week per em ployee over the same period. It is not Douglas policy to dis close break-even numbers but for the DC-10 it is believed to be about 435 aircraft for a programme which has involved the certification of four variants. Inflation, however, has certainly pushed this number up. Although 556 DC-8s were sold, and spares continue to make a contribution to profits, production ceased about 100 aircraft short of the break even point. While Europeans suggest that the US Ex-Im Bank pro vides terms which greatly assist the sale of American air craft, Brizendine notes that the Europeans and Russians also offer favourable terms and conditions, as Douglas discovered when selling the DC-9. He admits that military contracts, Nasa studies and the Lockheed loan have helped the American industry, but points out that similar arrange ments operate in other countries. Commercial aircraft currently account for about 41 per cent of total McDonnell Douglas sales, which have a net overall growth rate of 17 per cent per year. The ending of the Vietnam war, the cutback of the space programme and the Salt agreement are not expected to have an abrupt effect on the company. There will obviously be some changes to military research and development financing but there is likely to be an increasing demand for air transport. In the past it has been Douglas's policy that each new model should do more useful work at a lower cost than the aircraft it was designed to replace. Partly as a result of inflation, the DC-10, which brought economies of size, has had a hard time beating the DC-8. Although the rate of reduction in direct operating costs has certainly slowed down, Brizendine does not believe aircraft design has reached a plateau. Although airlines are fighting the energy crisis and increases in taxation, landing fees and labour costs, new designs will continue to reduce the over all system costs of air transport. Douglas is perhaps in a stronger position than either Lockheed or Boeing to launch a new civil project. Production of the DC-10 Twin would be integrated with that of the DC-10. Go-ahead is dependent on the receipt of airline orders
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