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Aviation History
1977
1977 - 0022.PDF
20 IN THE 1977 SKIES national force of E-3As? We shall almost certainly know by June. By then, Germany will have to decide whether money is to be included in its budget for any AEW project, or some Nato- agreed formula will have to emerge whereby she does the work now and pays for the results later. Much the same applies to Italy, although there is no offset complication. Italy alone voted against a common E-3A force at the Nato meeting last month. Britain cannot afford to continue indefinitely supporting both E-3A and the back-up AEW Nimrod. The first major qualitative improve ment in Western forces in Europe for a number of years will nevertheless come from America, in the form of the F-15 Eagles due to arrive in West Germany in April. But the first operational Tornados will have to wait another year at least. Fixed-wing naval aviation took a leap forward in 1976 with the appear ance of Russia's Kiev and her Yak-36 Forgers. The more we learn about these aircraft, the more it seems likely that the Kiev's sister ships, of which there are known to be at least two, will eventually carry a more flexible V/Stol force. In the West, the first Sea Harrier will fly this year, pre liminary Ski Jump trials will be flown, and more tangible US Navy interest in the AV-8B may well materialise. The biggest military market out side the manufacturing countries remains the Middle East. Iran, des pite falling oil revenues, will prob ably continue its present rate of General aviation All the signs point to another pros perous year for the business-aircraft manufacturers, many of whom have been increasing production rates during the last months of 1976. Corporate operators are looking for the optimum return on their invest ment, a demand which for many means flexible designs not tied to major airports. Although an increas ing emphasis on range is becoming apparent among the business jets— typified by the specifications of the Falcon 50, Gulfstream III and Lear- star 600—many operators are keen on being able to land "down on the ranch." Third-level growth may be limited by the ability of a generally undercapitalised industry to afford new equipment. The SD3-30, Mohawk 298 and Dash 7 will be seeking orders, while deliveries of the Twin Otter will be boosted by four to the United Kingdom early in the year. Growth in agricultural aviation will continue to stimulate technical advances. Poland will introduce into service the world's first fan-powered agricultural aircraft, the M-15, while in the United States interest will buying until 1980, although the Shah has said that "going nuclear" is out of the question. The main missile events of the next 12 months will be flight trials of the new-generation ICBMs being developed by the USA and USSR. First flight of the Trident SLBM has been delayed by a series of explosions, but is expected to take place early this year. Russia has already begun test ing the fourth-generation SS-NX-17 and -18 SLBMs, and should fly several new models of ICBM soon. The incoming Carter administration will have to decide the fate of the M-X ICBM project as well as of the various cruise missiles. If the start of full-scale M-X development is delayed until 1978, the USAF might decide to await the availability of radiation-hardened components. This would permit a substantial reduction in the size and power consumption of the guidance system. Any decision on the future of the cruise missiles will depend on progress in the current round of Salt negotiations. Carter is known to favour an early resumption of these talks. The cruise missile for the B-52 force is due to be chosen on January 6. Depending on the outcome of the Salt talks, the Russians may decide to deploy the SS-X-16 and -20 mobile ICBMs. The -16 is believed to have entered production and the deploy ment decision cannot be delayed much longer unless plans are in hand to stockpile large numbers of missiles. During the year the deployment of precision-guided munitions will con tinue. The single-round launcher developed for Maverick, for example, allows this missile to be carried by centre on the application of turbo- props to existing piston-engined types. In the helicopter world, 1977 may show whether the USA is determined to maintain four major rotary-wing manufacturers. Aerospatiale's AS.350 Ecureuil will be challenged to show whether it can really break the operating-cost barrier. Environmental issues—in particular the question of noise nuisance—will affect private flying. Efforts to reduce propeller noise are evident in Ger many, just one of the many countries already legislating on light-aircraft noise. The growing brotherhood of European gliding enthusiasts is increasingly apprehensive of future airspace restrictions and worried about the future of gliding sites. High-performance motor-gliders promise more and more. Germany's lion's share of the market is being nibbled away, with Finland, Poland, Romania and Japan all progressing well. The British glider industry should be re-born in 1977 as produc tion of the Vickers-Slingsby Vega gets under way. A new British light air craft might also emerge. FLIGHT International, I January 1977 older as well as by new lightweight fighters. Both Maverick and Walleye are already in service in the Middle East; other customers may appear. Space The current mix of technical and commercial effort will probably be maintained. The Space Shuttle Orbiter will venture impressively into its atmospheric flight trials. Europe's Ariane launcher—though it will not be operational until 1978— will be able to orbit commercial synchronous satellites before the Shuttle. Intelsat V will move into the hardware stage. Europe's ESA and America's Nasa will settle on a con figuration for the Aerosat experi mental North Atlantic navigation satellite. Physically the largest question mark hangs over Russia's mighty G-l launcher. Will it become operational in 1977, giving Russia the ability to hurl even bigger manned vehicles into orbit? Engines The lines for powerplant develop ment in 1977 are largely drawn al ready—five tonnes of thrust for the business jets, 10 or 12 tonnes for the new 160-seater airliner (with the alternative of a cropped 20-tonner), and a similar mix for the 200-seater. Extrapolation is in, novelty is out. Silence will continue golden, but there is a limit to the money available for quietening the older, intrinsically noisy turbo jets. The drive towards improved economy will therefore probably take financial precedence. Avionics Avionic prospects in 1977 look bright. Digital electronics will con tinue to appeal; component prices will drop further; and production will go on expanding. The role of the micro processor will become clearer and component developments will continue to outpace applications. The new international civil Micro wave Landing Systems should finally be chosen early in 1977. Loran A is being withdrawn from service, and by the end of 1977 the most modern navigational electronics will be guiding traffic across the North Atlantic. The new Eurocontrol centre at Karlsruhe, featuring improved pro cessed radar and automated control, will be inaugurated this year. A strong campaign to sell processed radar systems for busy aerodrome areas can be expected, and advanced secondary-radar techniques such as Adsel and Dabs should begin to show their worth. Simulator manufacturers, striving to achieve total realism right through the landing phase, may reveal new techniques, including better comput ing and more capable motion and visual systems.
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