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Aviation History
1978
1978 - 0063.PDF
|*M| International Business Press Associates [Aii* ] Member of the Audit Bureau of Circulations © IPC Business Press Ltd 1977 Founded in 1909 First aeronautical weekly In the world Official organ of the Royal Aero Club Published by IPC Transport Press Ltd, Dorset House, Stamford Street, London SE1 9LU Telephone: 01-261 8070 (Editorial) 8397 (Photographic Library) 8081 (Advertisement Sales) 8392 (Advertisement Production) Telegrams/Telex: 25137 BISPRS G Collision risk On average since the 1940s the world's air-transport industry has suffered just over one fatal col lision a year. Collision frequency has been remarkably consistent despite a 40-fold increase in traffic volume, suggesting that the air traffic control system has kept pace with growth. The col lision risk, which should increase as the square of the traffic, appears to be reducing. The near- miss reports, when filtered of false alarms and depending on how the statistics are figured, can also be presented to show a steadily reducing conflict rate. There is some dispute about these near-miss figures. They can be read the other way by pilots, who are generally the most aware of conflicting aluminium and who feel that the collision risk is in creasing. There is no doubt that two of the worst recent airline disasters have been collisions. Each was at the extreme edge of the "probability envelope," one on the ground and the other at about 35,000ft on an airway. Thus mocks perverse Fate—just as it felled the first wide-body with a faulty door latch. Nevertheless, safety planners have to concentrate limited re sources on probabilities. In the Week ending 14 January 1978 Number 3591 Volume 113 Publisher Bryan Cambray FIMI < Editorial Director IPC Transport Press Maurice A. Smith, Dl-C Deputy Publisher and Group Advertisement Manager David Holmes Senior Advertisement Representatives Jack Bush, cllve Rlgden US Advertisement Sales Manager Jack Vieira, IPC Busi ness Press Ltd, Suite 1705, 205 East 42nd Street, New York. NY 10017. Tel: (212) 867 2080 Telex: 421710 Other advertisement representatives: see back of this issue USA news-stand distribution by Eastern News Distributors, 14th Floor, 111 Eighth Avenue, New York 10011. USA mailing agents: Expediters of the Printed Word Ltd, 527 Madison Avenue, Suite 1217, New York, NY 10022, 2nd-class postage paid at New York, NY and additional offices. US Direct Air Mall. $91 -00 p.a. Air-speeded to US 360-20 p.a. case of collisions we have to think hardest about the air space up to 20,000ft or 25,000ft for about 150 or 200 miles around the busiest airports, even though chance could decree a collision in a light-traffic area. There can be no disputing the fact that air traffic control must be on the ground, not in the cockpit. Every step forward in the air traffic control system has inevitably placed the ground con troller, who alone sees the whole picture, in command. The air borne captains are still legally responsible for the safety of their ships, a fact which they often find hard to reconcile with their ever-extending obedience to ATC. They do what they are told, often in blind faith, and in rare instances even allow ATC to vector them into trouble. More and more influential pilots are beginning to have doubts. Capt J. D. Smith of United Airlines and Capt Ray Gerber of Pan American and Alpa have both said, in effect, "we have got to get the pilot back into the information loop." In next week's issue we shall investigate this flight-safety prob lem and recommend a possible solution. Editor J. M. Ramsden Assistant Editor Hugh Field International Editor Mark Lambert Technical Editor Michael Wilson BSc, CEng, FBIS, MRAeS Chief Sub-editor Brendan Gallagher Editorial Staff Cliff Barnett Ian Goold Mike Hirst BTech Nigel Moll Stephen Piercey Doug Richardson Bill Sweetman Air Photography Tom Hamill Chief US Correspondent Warren H. Goodman, Spring Valley Road, Ossinlng, New York 10562, USA Telephone (914) 941-0805 Subscriptions Manager B. F. J. Mason Telephone 0444 59188. UK and overseas subscription rates at back of Issue. NEXT WEEK We publish the first complete listing of 1977 airline accidents, and propose a device to help reduce the risk of mid-air collisions. IN THIS ISSUE World News Air Transport Defence Industry International General Aviation Private Business 90 93 97 101 102 104 Avionics 109 AIRBORNE NAVIGATION SYSTEMS 110 Letters Neil Williams: the pilot and the 114 man 116 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS JETS AND TURBOPROP DIRECTORY 117 Spaceflight 131 Front cover: Rockwell's Sabreliner 65 prototype flies over the US west coast between its engin eering base at Los Angeles and the Seattle facility of wing aerodynamicist Raisbeck. Our annual survey of jet and turboprop business aircraft begins on page 117
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