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Aviation History
1979
1979 - 1821.PDF
FLIGHT International, 26 May 1979 1743 Lufthansa has opted for progressive replacement of its earlier Pratt & Whitney-powered 747s with General Electric CF6-powered -200&S Still under active study is the long-haul, four-engined Air bus A30OB11, favoured by some factions in preference to a new venture in the short-range field. There will also be some market impact from the re-engining of DC-8s and possibly 707s, costing the current trijets some customers and even neutralising some early 777 markets. The Boeing 747, however, seems safe in its top niche in the market. Marketing manager Bob Neir's biggest problem is keeping customers happy within a self-imposed production ceiling of seven aircraft a month. This level was set last year, when Boeing decided that it would not try for anything higher even though it could have sold more aircraft. As a result, says Neir, the company is faced with no late delivery problems. "It's a good thing we didn't have to raise the rate. As we are now, the industry is gearing up to meet us. There are a few areas, such as galleys and lavatories, where the capacity of the suppliers may not be up to standard." In some cases Boeing is having to install items out of the normal assembly sequence, wasting manhours and money but not delaying delivery. Within the seven-a-month rate, Boeing has been able to accommodate new customers while meeting the needs of existing purchasers. The line is "not sold out, but well committed" until mid-1981; some gaps have probably been left for new clients. Faced with expanding order books and fully booked production lines, most manufacturers are being very careful not to sell out to the point where a new customer is driven into a rival's arms. "So far," says Neir, "we have been able to accommodate all customers." But a new 747 customer now can expect to wait 28 months for delivery, compared with 15 months a few years ago. Like other manufacturers, Boeing is beginning to see problems in the supply of long-lead items such as forgings and fasteners but, according to Bob Neir, "none of these things has impacted us too seriously, although we're almost at the maximum rate right now. If we had had serious problems earlier in the build-up we might have had reason to worry." Only Korean Airlines has as yet followed Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines in the so-called "rollover" replacement of its 747 fleet. In Neir's view, this is a matter for some rejoicing, because widespread rollovers would have clog ged the 747 line seriously. As things stand, Boeing is building 747s to the maximum capacity of its existing plant, with clear implications for the profitability of the programme. It is hard to say when an airliner like the 747 "breaks even" for the manufacturer. Most of the airliner makers are adopting Boeing's system of accounting, whereby the development costs are written off immediately as they occur. The 747 is unquestionably bringing in a handsome profit for each aircraft sold; continuing B&D on the 747 itself is a barely significant sum, while the production programme will be vital to keeping Boeing in profit be tween now and 1984, while the massive 757/767 develop ment bills are being paid. Most of the advances in 747 performance have been booty from the three-way engine battle, comparatively few external modifications having been made to the air frame in the course of development. Weights have been increased to absorb greater power, culminating in the latest 833,0001b version. New options have been added to the avionics system, but with nearly 400 aircraft in service it is difficult to justify major changes. "You can't go to a 15-aircraft customer and say 'How about a new cockpit for the last two?'," observes Neir. The 747 could obviously benefit a great deal from 767 technology. Active ailerons and extended wingtips—pro posed for the 777—are to fly this year on the 747 proto type. Composites in the structure, digital avionics, cathode-ray-tube (CRT) flight-deck displays, recirculating air conditioning: all have their merits, but all cost a great deal of development effort and cash (which Boeing cannot spare) to put them on the 747, and because they conflict with standardisation some large customers may not want them anyway. Similar considerations apply to the development of any stretched version of the 747, the extent to which the design will be re-worked depending entirely on the timing of any launch decision. With the peak workload on its new programmes still ahead, the company is happiest talking about a simple "727-200-type" stretch, using the 833,0001b gross weight of the latest standard-body aircraft and the existing wing, and aiming at maximum commonality with the current aircraft. The fuselage configuration would be that studied by Boeing for some years now, with a 280in stretch overall and the upper deck extended by 320in to a point level with the leading edge. Such a stretch would offer a considerable return for a small outlay and about three years of development, bringing capacity from 440 to 570 seats at a comparable standard. Boeing is not, however, likely to stretch the 747 before it has to, and in the absence of any direct com petitor this probably means that the manufacturer will stick to the standard body length until a large market for the stretch emerges. At that time Boeing might feel more free to propose wider changes to the airframe and sys tems; some Boeing people might even like to replace the the mid-1960s, Mach 0-9 wing with a new design optimised for today's slower cruising speeds and sized for further growth towards the million-pound mark. This must be an outside chance as yet, but it will increase as the years pass and fuel prices continue their inexorable rise. The arguments for a more moderate revamp of the 747 with new systems will also gain strength over the years, as crews become more accustomed to the new generation of equipment on smaller types.
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