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Aviation History
1983
1983 - 1921.PDF
INTERNATIONAL Week ending 22 October, 1983 Number 3885, Volume 124 ISSN 0015-3710 IN THIS ISSUE World News Air Transport Defence General Aviation 1074 1076 1080 1084 BUSINESS AVIATION PUSHES 1092 AHEAD AT DALLAS Cliff Barnett and David Velupillai report from the NBAA's Texas Convention. TICKET FRAUD Robert Cockburn outlines the ways in crime is perpetrated, and looks at lata combat the problem. 1102 which the s plans to SPACELAB: VIP AMONG 1106 SHUTTLE PASSENGERS David Velupillai heralds the imminent Spacelab 1 Shuttle flight, and surveys future prospects. Industry Spaceflight Propulsion Avionics Letters Straight and Level 1109 1113 1114 1116 1117 1119 Published in association with Aeroplane Monthly and Airports Inter national by Transport Press; a division of Business Press International Ltd, Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS, England World's first and only complete aeronautical weekly © Copyright Business Press International Ltd. 1983 Founded 1909 Second-class postage paid at New York, NY, and additional entries. Editor David Mason Associate Editor Peter Middleton Assistant Editor Tom Hamill Air Transport Editor David Learmount Air Transport editorial Alison Chambers, Chris Kjelgaard BSc Defence Editor Graham Warwick BSc Defence editorial Mike Gaines Technical Editor David Velupillai BSc Technical editorial Julian Moxon BSc General Aviation Editor Cliff Barnett General Aviation editorial Ian Goold, Ian Parker BSc Production Editor Philip Jarrett Sub-editor Graham Cowell Art Editor Colin Paine Layout Rita Molineux Photography Stephen Piercey Technical Artists Frank Munger, John Marsden Paris correspondent Gilbert Sedbon 825 5261 US West coast correspondent Norman Lynn (213) 377 8485 Publishing Director John Crookshank Editor-in-Chief J M Ramsden Advertisement Manager Trevor Barratt Assistant Advertisement Manager Clive Richardson "advertisement Sales Executives Sarah Beck, Robert Hancock Advertisement Production Howard Mason Advertisement Sales—France Pierre Mussard, 1B,20 Place de la Madeleine, Paris 75008. France. Telephone Paris 2655014. Telex: 215334F BISPRSF. Advertisement Sales—Italy Romano Ferrario, Etas Kompass Periodici Tecnici Sp A, Via Nuova Rivoltana, 95, 20090 Limito—Miiano, Italy. Advertisement Sales—USA (East Coast) Dean Kelly, Classified Advertisement Sales—USA Joe Connors, Business Press International Ltd, 205 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017 Telephone: (212) 867 2080. Telex: 238327 Advertisement Sales —USA (West Coast) John Tidy, Business Press International Ltd, 2656 Vista del Oro, Newport Beach, CA 92660. Telephone: (714) 760 9438. Telex: 238327 Subscriptions Manager A. Walden Telephone England (0444) 459188 (UK and overseas subscription rates and agents can be found in this issue) Telephone 01-661 3315 (Display Advertisement Sales) 01-661 3274 (Classified Advertisement Sales) 01-661 3267 (Advertisement Production) 01-661 3321 (Editorial) Telegram/Telex 892084 BISPRS G Facsimile (Group lll/ll) on request. Telephone 01-661 3321 lAf^l Member of the Audit Bureau of Circulations Front cover: Space Shuttle, seen here from Spas 01 on STS 9, will reach another milestone with the launch of the first Spacelab flight on October 28. EDITORIAL Never forget you have a choice SEVEN orders and three options, amounting together to some $240 million is not itself, in today's mega- buck aerospace economics, an order of vast significance. But when British Caledonian said that it wanted to buy Airbus A320s for its European routes for 1988-89 onwards, the airliner manu facturing trade moved into a new gear. Which new gear it has moved into is far from clear. The Airbus organisation, a multi-layer concept involving the central Airbus Industrie organisation, the respective manufacturing partners, and their funding Governments, has consis tently stated that it needs solid, credible, independent airlines to place orders before production starts. No doubt Airbus Industrie was thinking of a rather larger order than seven and three when it made these remarks, but this order does bring the total up to a respectable-sounding 80. That may still be short of a traditionally acceptable launching number, but again Airbus has also talked of the "quality of the order" not merely its size. The British Caledonian declaration has just that element of quality, with the distinct merit of being the closest possible to a clean commercial decision. BCal is an independent airline and has to fly aero planes that will make money over its routes and over the period that it flies. BCal declares that its assessment of the A320 was uncompromisingly objective. It promised the most economical per formance taking into account purchase and operating costs, including fuel (what ever that may cost over the 20 years of an aircraft's lifetime) as well as the airline's predicted loads. If BCal considers A320 the leading contender to meet these mysterious criteria, it may have given other airlines the confidence to follow suit. The order, however, has not quite forced the launch decision. That still depends on the consortium's view of the market. Two or three years ago a market of 2,000-2,500 aircraft was predicted, at the time when Delta was taking the lead in this sector of the market. There are now slightly different views on its size. Boeing, for example, though admittedly not from the most independent of stand points, has recently run its slide rule over the figures again and come up with this prediction. There is, between now and 1995, a market for 2,400 medium-size airliners. Airbus Industrie's prediction is 3,000 to the end of the century. In the FLIGHT International, 22 October 1983 Boeing version the market to 1988 (the earliest that the A320 can come on stream) will be met by existing 757, 737-300, and MD80 models. That- Boeing's prediction again—cuts the 1989-95 market down to 1,500. Of this, 900 would then be replacement sales of existing models, leaving a market of only 600 for a newcomer. Boeing's conclusion is that one newcomer could build those 600 at a viable rate of 85 per year. Two newcomers would leave each manu facturer with a loss-making 43, three with a disastrous 28 per year each. The question for Airbus Industrie and its partner Governments is whether other airlines can be persuaded, by seeing metal being cut at Chester, Hamburg, Toulouse, and Madrid, to buy the aeroplane. If Airbus Industrie believes in its planned product and in the market predictions it has made over the years, then it is worth overturning tradition and launching this aircraft with a comparatively short order- book. If it does not do so, the cost of not launching will be damaging beyond repair. Airbus Industrie would be left for many years with a two-product range, and ulti mately would no doubt see its customers drift back to American suppliers for many models. TA-11 might be a useful alterna tive next project, but Airbus Industrie has to aim at producing a full family of aero planes, including, eventually, TA-11 as well as A320. At this stage in its maturing process, the youthful European airliner industry finds itself in a particularly uncomfortable corner. If it does not grow it will wither and die, and major aeroplane manufacture will end up an American monopoly. That would mean pounds, pesetas, francs, and deutschmarks, and therefore jobs and general prosperity, becoming out of balance in the Western economy. That is the story that Airbus Industrie should now be taking to the British and German Governments, Spain and France already having decided to commit funds. Airbus Industrie is fortunate in having the British Caledonian order to take with it as the key card in its selling hand. If the programme does not yet promise absolute certainty of profitability, then it is worth asking whether space and military programmes are designed to make money, and whether the airliner industry, like most of the rest of transport, cannot look for a measure of taxpayer support over its developing years. 1073
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