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Aviation History
1983
1983 - 2046.PDF
BAe ATP-ETA OK? BAe claims that the A TP will be the first turboprop able to use jetways WOODFORD Although British Aerospace has not yet made a formal commitment to produce the 64-seat ATP, design and development work on the aircraft is stepping up in tempo. BAe Manchester is still thoroughly confident that the ATP—a high technology development of the HS.748— will go into production, and predicts that it can sell well over 250 before the end of the century. ATP chief marketing re search engineer John Wil liamson says that the BAe Board awaits a formal deci sion by the UK Government to provide loan assistance for the Airbus A320 before con centrating on its funding stra tegy for the ATP. So it looks like the ATP launch decision will have to follow the full go- ahead for the new Airbus. But in the meanwhile the ATP is being supported by continuing—and increasing— three-month allocations of internal BAe funding. Accord ing to Williamson, ATP sup port from BAe's own cash reserves looks safe until at least the end of March, by which time Manchester hopes to have the production go- ahead. The BAe Board is satisfied with Manchester's intensive market research for the ATP, and a Government team is now wrapping up its own market survey. Williamson says: "Even if the programme was fully launched, we wouldn't be spending any more than we are. We are actually resource- limited now and are looking to subcontract some design work on the ATP." More than 100 BAe designers are now work ing on the project, and Manchester has expanded its computer-aided design facili ties to cope with the ATP. All of the early design objectives demanded by the project's critical-path develop ment planning are on target. The design of the ATP's wing is now "substantially com plete", in Williamson's words, as is floor and nacelle design. Flightdeck equipment fit and design do not need to be deter mined until late next year. The first wing centre- section and floor jigs are now 1270 complete, and the fuselage jig is almost ready. Pratt & Whit ney expects to run the hot section of the first PW124 next month, and should have the first complete engine run ning by March. The first pro peller hub forging has been made and is now being struc turally tested. Some small pieces of ATP airframe metal have been cut. BAe's market perception has changed somewhat since last year's intensive sales studies. The company has been sur prised and gratified by the amount of interest shown by large European flag carriers. Williamson tells Flight that the BAe Board is demanding certain demonstrations of market interest before giving the ATP its final blessing. "The Board hasn't pushed us to get a stack of 'orders' we can wave about. But it has wanted us to demonstrate customer acceptance and interest, particularly from 'blue chip' airlines." This "blue chip" interest has arisen from several lead ing European carriers which are seriously investigating the possibility of replacing jets with turboprops on some of their smaller routes. Manchester has been con ducting detailed discussions with Lufthansa, SAS, Swis sair, and Austrian Airlines. These airlines may not in the long run operate an ATP- sized turboprop themselves— but they may well buy such an aircraft for their subsidiaries or associated carriers, at the same time giving them routes which will not economically support jet operations. BAe has of course conduc ted intensive ATP marketing and sales campaigns in North America, and has won a great deal of interest from airlines there, according to William son. But, he notes, it would be difficult to convince the BAe Board that a small but grow ing US regional is as safe a launch customer as a major European airline—simply be cause of the volatility of the US regional industry. Nevertheless, two strong US regionals have expressed particular interest in buying the ATP: Mississippi Valley Airlines, which has said publicly that it would like to be an early customer for the ATP, and Britt Airways. Williamson says that "occa sional forays" have been made elsewhere in the world, and BAe has received interest from the Middle and Far East. The company sees a good turboprop replacement mar ket in the Far East, where large fleets of elderly turbo props still operate. Indonesia is regarded as a particularly strong potential market. Manchester has extended its market estimates for the 60-70 seat "big turboprop" class from its previous 1995 cut-off date through to the end of the century. It predicts a market of 750 aircraft from now till the end of the cen tury, of which BAe believes it can capture at least a 250-plus share with the ATP. Accord ing to BAe, about 25-30 per cent of both the total market and BAe's share would come from Europe. According to BAe, Dowty's new landing gear design pro- ' duced specially for the ATP , will go into service with a guaranteed 12,000hr time be- ' tween overhauls. Yet the de- ., sign is much lighter than the existing HS.748 gear. It will ' also be much easier to main- , tain, not requiring the re placement of the whole oleo ' leg if there is an oil leak. < Manchester believes that the use of carbonfibre- * reinforced plastic in the ATP's failsafe nacelle design repre sents the first time an airliner > has employed the material in a major load-bearing role. It is a secondary role, however: if » the metal primary engine- mountings fail, the engine is held by a diaphragm-like ; CFRP structure. BAe is sure that it will have no certification problems with the nacelle. The company says that the ATP is the first aircraft of its class to have a . fail-safe nacelle design. Previous UK CAA certifica tion requirements allowed •. safe-life nacelles. Williamson points out that '• the ATP's operating weight , empty will be only 2,8201b greater than that of the > HS.748, although it carries a third more passengers. BAe claims that the ATP's OWE > per seat is by far the lowest of any current or new turboprop. The company also predicts a - 32 per cent break-even load factor for the ATP over a 150 n.m. sector in normal airline - operation, and a seat-mile cost slightly lower than that of a ' 114-seat twin-jet despite a * 500hr greater yearly utilisa tion for the larger aircraft. The price of the ATP is , $8-8 million in mid-1983 dollars. ' In considering launch loan . aid for the ATP, the Govern ment will have to remember * that the project is important , to BAe Manchester's medium-term future. If it does * not get the go-ahead, large- , scale layoffs will need to be made among the 6,700 • workforce as the HS.748 , programme approaches the sunset of its sales life. BAe * itself confirms the project's , vital role: "It is fair to say that we need the ATP". * FLIGHT International, 12 November 1983*
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