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Aviation History
1984
1984 - 0062.PDF
Asian honey pot One in every three Boeing 747s is now operated by an Asia- Pacific airline, and one-sixth of the world's total scheduled traffic is flown by those airlines. As the gates open on the Asian Aerospace Show in Singapore, Peter Middleton analyses the expansion of Asia-Pacific air transport, which is not only a beneficiary of rapid economic development, but also a major driving force behind it. How much longer can the region remain one of the world's biggest customers for new jet airliners? Next week Flight International celebrates its 75th anniversary. During that time, aviation has spawned only one "Age" of consequence to the anthropologists of tomorrow—the Space Age. Future generations will mark the start of that age with scientific precision as October 4, 1957, when the Soviet Union launched its first Sputnik. Inevitably, the date at which the "Pacific Age" assumed succession will be defined less precisely. Perhaps the definition will escape the history books altogether and some other label will be considered more appropriate. Historians will find it diffi cult, however, to argue that economic strides made by Asia-Pacific nations during recent decades are any less signifi cant than concurrent developments in space. After 20 years of rapid expansion, the region (taken as a whole) is still demon strating one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world, and airline expansion continues to be commensurate with that growth. Expenditure on defence equipment and other products, such as utility and business aircraft, helicopters, and airport equipment, has confirmed the region as a major outlet for aerospace products. The Civil Aviation Administration of China operates four Boeing 747SPs plus one 747-200. Total 747 sales to Asia-Pacific airlines total nearly 200, of which more than 170 have been delivered Asia-Pacific is far from homogeneous, however, and political, religious, and ethnic diversity are among its hallmarks. It encompasses not only a vast geographic area, but also a variety of economies which range from that of Japan (the world's third largest), through hives of capitalist prosperity, epitomised by Sing apore and Hong Kong, to several states operating at little more than subsistence level. Most countries are young, and their total population of about 2,300 million (still mostly rural and representing 60 per cent of humanity) is also young. The expected annual population growth of 2 • 2 per cent throughout the Eighties is only marginally above the world norm, but its total impact will be large because the region contains no fewer than five of the world's eight most populous nations: the People's Republic of China; India; Indonesia; Japan; and Bangladesh. The differences of political persuasion and living standards are manifest, while geography ranges from the vast tracts of China to tiny dots of land isolated in the Pacific Ocean. Yet many nations have at least two elements in common—difficult or long lines of surface communication (either domestic or international) and a policy of economic expansion. Not even the communications satellite has stemmed the concomitant, and almost insatiable, demand for air transport. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that Western airliner manufacturers, facing stagnation in their home markets, have come to rely upon Asia-Pacific as one of their major sales outlets, particularly for 747s and A300s. Other airline sectors have also grown quickly in recent years, notably Africa and the Middle East, but both are rela tively small in comparison with Asia- Pacific. Furthermore, the Middle East market has been erratic, and unable to sustain the prosperous mid-Seventies growth which followed the oil price rises that sent the rest of the world into recession. The late arrival of that recession in the Far East, however, has helped to preserve the vast triangle of Asia-Pacific as one of the most healthy markets for both airlines and the companies which build their equipment. Fortuitously, raising finance for massive capital-equipment purchases has been less problematical for such airlines than elsewhere in the world. The reasons are as diverse as the motivations of the airlines and the regimes under which they operate. These range from capitalist success stories, such as Singapore, with its attendant high credit rating, to the People's Republic of China (where "cash-down" payments for airliners are not unknown) and Indonesia, where book keeping is definitely an art rather than a Passenger-km growth Scheduled services Europe North America Latin America Africa Middle East Asia & Pacific Total scheduled Non-scheduled Europe North America Rest of World Total non-scheduled Total World rate estimates 1975/1980 + 8-8 + 8-4 + 12-2 + 12-5 + 21-2 + 115 + 9-7 + 10 - 1-5 - 2 6 0 + 8-4 [%) 1980/1985 + 5-4 + 40 + 8-8 + 9 2 + 4 3 + 9-4 + 5-8 + 3-9 0 + 7-4 + 3-2 + 5-5 1985/1990 + 6-1 + 5-2 + 92 + 85 + 6-6 + 7-3 + 6-3 + 60 + 4-2 + 5-4 + 55 + 6-2 1990/2000 + 6-1 + 4-7 + 9-4 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 6 5 + 60 + 60 + 4-2 + 65 + 5-7 + 60 82 FLIGHT International, 14 January 1984
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