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Aviation History
1985
1985 - 3140.PDF
Kuala Lumpur Points served by the Japanese and U.S. carriers under the current bilateral agreement policy which will allow the industry to grow; one which will not drive airlines out of business". TDA's director and vice-president corporate planning, Masaki Oka, hopes the airlines will have a degree of flexibility to set fares within an lata framework, but does not want to see a discount war. "That could end in dumping, which is the way to disaster, as Laker Airways proved". ANA says that its competitive edge will come from its 71-route domestic network (JAL only serves five domestic cities). Where the airlines disagree most funda mentally is the question of which routes Japan's new entrants should get when the spoils are shared out. At the very least JAL wants to hang on to what it already has. Hashizume argues that ANA and TDA's new services should be restricted to routes not already fully utilised by JAL under existing bilateral agreements. Korean Air, for example, operates 80 flights weekly to Japan, while JAL flies just 63 times between the two countries. The bilateral caters for more than one carrier for each side. Japan's bilateral with Thailand also leaves some allocation unused, and there are five national carri ers serving Tokyo (Belgium, Finland, Sri Lanka, Iran, and Iraq) without a corre sponding Japanese service. Both ANA and TDA have higher ambi tions, and are keen to take JAL on head- to-head on existing routes. Los Angeles and New York are top targets for both newcomers, and they also want to take up the opportunity provided by the interim agreement to launch services between Tokyo and the US Micronesian island of Guam. Indeed ANA, which filed for the Tokyo-Guam route in July, originally hoped to launch its international scheduled career last month. So far the MoT has baulked at giving its formal approval. One reason for MoT's atti tude could be the approaching round of Japan-USA air service talks. The MoT is cautious about reshaping Japan's air transport industry until a clearer picture emerges from the talks. Another factor could be the severe lack of capacity at Tokyo's inter national airport, Narita. ANA, however, is so confident that approval will come soon that it has already begun structuring its international fleet. Two Boeing 747-200s have been earmarked for international routes upon delivery next year. On the other hand, TDA has been more cautious, waiting to see which routes it is awarded. Oka says that initial trans-Pacific oper ations are likely to begin with a second hand DC-10-30. That would probably lead to a requirement in 1990/91 for the MD- 11, although the four-engine Airbus Industrie TA-11, now on the drawing board, has not been ruled out. TDA's applications include Tokyo-San Francisco and Tokyo-Honolulu and some points in Asia such as Taipei, Hong Kong, and Seoul. With the privatisation of the Government's 34 • 7 per cent stake in JAL now likely, TDA's Oka believes that a breakup of its international network is necessary to ensure that all of Japan's airlines prosper. Oka draws parallels between his airline and the smaller UK carriers, who fear the privatisation of British Airways (BA). The UK Govern ment's redistribution of routes between BA and British Caledonian (BCal) is seen by Oka as an example which the MoT would do well to follow. JAL, for its part, argues that the anal ogy with BA is false. Unlike the UK carrier, it is already 65 per cent privately owned, and the non-Government share holders would not allow it to be stripped of the high-yield routes which are its major assets. Meanwhile, ANA's Souma says that its efforts, for the time being, are centred on the USA. However, the airline does Passengers by carrier and nationality between Japan and the USA (1983) ^\ irfi ^1 • • ^M Hashizume—safeguards Passenger share by carrier Passenger share by nationality have one eye on a hearing at the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) this month, in which BCal is applying for London (Gatwick)—Tokyo rights. Should BCal win CAA and then Japanese MoT approval "it might offer us the opportunity to fly to London," says Souma. While Europe remains a peripheral ambition, ANA's more immediate US interests are on the table at US/Japan air service agreement negotiations. The talks promise to be even more contentious than previous rounds, at which relations have often been sour. The new important ingredient is the recent US Department of Transportation's approval of the $750 million purchase by America's largest airline, United Airlines (UAL), of Pan American World Airways' Pacific network. May's interim agreement laid the framework for expanding air services between the two nations. In addition to letting NCA leave the starting gate, and opening the international door to TDA and ANA, it has given the US side three new opportunities for its carriers, relaxed some capacity restrictions on Japan- Micronesia routes, and allowed the expan sion of Nagoya-Honolulu services. Still to be hammered out are the details of which routes will be opened up. Two new gate ways in the US mainland must be chosen. TDA has its eyes on a Tokyo-Dallas/Fort Worth service (TDA has developed a close relationship with American Airlines, which is hubbed in Dallas), while Houston and Atlanta are the other main candidates for a direct Tokyo service. The agreement has yet to address some basic Japanese grievances and, with the USA's missionary zeal to spread the word of US-style deregulation, the sessions will be tough. Japan's case is simple. The post-war shaping of routes between the two countries was heavily biased in favour of the USA. By 1984 five US carriers operated 230 one-way flights each week to Japan. Japan's sole carrier, JAL, flew 130 flights in the other direc tion. US carriers monop olised five American desti nations (Detroit, Philadelphia 22 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 30 November 1985
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